Today's Horse Racing

[Dallas]

Barmy activity on the Fav

Was it? That's been my best trade today - drift, lay, done

Been mine too

[ShaunWhite]

Barmy activity on the Fav

Was it? That's been my best trade today - drift, lay, done

Been mine too

Even money, out to 9/4 and back in to 6/4, almost to the tick.
Who says the effect of trad odds are dead?

[ruthlessimon]

Even money, out to 9/4 and back in to 6/4, almost to the tick.
Who says the effect of trad odds are dead?

Aint there like 5 levels between 3.0 - 4.0? It's guaranteed to be "close" to something! If anything surely steamers are where it's more important - cos if the bookies haven't cut it why would someone not lay it?

[ShaunWhite]

Even money, out to 9/4 and back in to 6/4, almost to the tick.
Who says the effect of trad odds are dead?

Aint there like 5 levels between 3.0 - 4.0? It's guaranteed to be "close" to something! If anything surely steamers are where it's more important - cos if the bookies haven't cut it why would someone not lay it?

I'm not talking about bookies, I'm talking about the psychology of punters who largely remain rooted to the simple maths of trad odds.
Yes there might be several levels but just because 1 gets passed through it doesn't mean the next might not be a barrier.

I've done heatmaps of the time selections stay at prices on the ladder (but I can't find it again!). IMO there's absolutely no doubt that trad odds are little gravitational holes in your featureless landscape of digital prices. Some selections orbit them, some selections are slingshotted to the next price if they have or gain enough momentum.

[ruthlessimon]

trad odds are little gravitational holes

Surely that implies "ideal" (i.e. high/low) exits shouldn't be at the fractional levels?

[ShaunWhite]

trad odds are little gravitational holes

Surely that implies "ideal" (i.e. high/low) exits shouldn't be at the fractional levels?

I've no idea about that. I can only look at averages, a manual trader is much better placed find the ideal.

[ruthlessimon]

trad odds are little gravitational holes

Surely that implies "ideal" (i.e. high/low) exits shouldn't be at the fractional levels?
[/quote]
I've no idea about that. I can only look at averages, a manual trader is much better placed find the ideal.
[/quote]

It's a contradiction otherwise; innit?

Because if a fractional level is the expected high/low - that'd make it the least traded price. Making the opposite of a gravitational hole - more like a white hole

[ShaunWhite]

Because if a fractional level is the expected high/low - that'd make it the least traded price.

I don't know how you can make that conclusion and I'm not sure how that matters even if you could. And as I said I was only looking at time residing @price over 1000s of horses, not highs or lows or traded volumes esp for individual ones.

[ruthlessimon]

Because if a fractional level is the expected high/low - that'd make it the least traded price.

I don't know how you can make that conclusion and I'm not sure how that matters even if you could. And as I said I was only looking at time residing @price over 1000s of horses, not highs or lows or traded volumes esp for individual ones.

Because in your example, "Even money, out to 9/4 and back in to 6/4, almost to the tick." How is 9/4 a gravitational hole? Price reacted off 9/4. A gravitational hole, to me, implies a lot of trade was done at 9/4 - & if that's the case longterm (as you say it is @fractional levels), arguably it's better my exit goes (insert fraction) +/- x ticks (that's the argument I'm making)

[TipTopTrader]

Shaun's Delight is running in the first at Chepstow.

Shaun Delight White has a nice ring to it!. Wonder if he will steam or drift.

[Euler]

Volumes very low at Epsom for the first couple of races.

[Euler]

Low all around £500k for a Group 2 with a favourite at 3's at Donny. Odd. Will check data later.

[Euler]

Interesting first up at Chester. Coqnac drawn 1 and heavily backed.

[Dallas]

I missed the first today

[Euler]

Gamble fails