Today's Horse Racing

[Iron]

Betfair's current approach is dishonest.

I think Betfair are relying on Sportsbook users assuming that they are betting against other people on the exchange (and missing the 'Go to Exchange' thing hidden in the top left corner). They might get away with that in the short term, but sooner or later word will get out that Betfair have been f*cking their customers...

Jeff

I wonder if the sportbook is halting a lot of the recreational activity on the exchange? I wonder if Betfair realise what damage they have done to their only USP.

[Groovyelms]

I know that this is early days.... But are we in transistion between the exchanges and these challenging market conditions are likely to persist for......... god knows how long?..

[jimrobo]

I don't think betfair have done anything to be honest. Its just a naturally weak market.

Just think about it.....they are displaying orders all over the book which are in effect the same orders. Less people are taking prices so the book is filled with prices that aren;t actually there because a lot of the orders you see are in 2 places at once. Then due to xmatching you may think you are at the front of a que of money but actually the x matching is matching new orders at your price with orders further up in the book so the fill rate comes across as even worse.

I wonder what the turnover would be on a typical betfair horse racing market if you deducted all the traders positions and only displayed open positions as turnover. I'm guessing it would be seriously low and I wonder if betdaq would even be higher.

[dmbusa]

I wonder if on some markets there are now only traders active in the market which is why is it getting tougher?

[jimrobo]

saying that though what I found really odd on some markets was I was expecting price to go a certain way. The market fundamentals said it had to go a certain way and I would wait and it would almost go, then stop, come back, then almost go and then after all the liquidity had died it would suddenly push through as if there was no resistance there. It was a most frustrating day for me! It was almost as if fundamentally something was wrong.

[L.o.S]

That happened on the first race. Somebody was trying to hold the price down and as soon as they pulled it the price flew from 1.8 out to 2.5ish. The market was indicating a drift but due to the fake money there was plenty of occasions where I could have taken a loss on what turned out to be a spot on trade.

[jimrobo]

today is back to normal just lower liquidity but fundamentally ok. Yesterday was fundamentally crazy.

[L.o.S]

I'm having a bit of a time with this bombing now. Had a fair whack of green on the favourite drifting and the bomber appeared and completely reversed the trends, and ran down to break even.

In hindsight the second favourite ended up being the big drifter but I didn't get involved purely on the basis that in a 750k market surely a few bombs wouldn't change the predominant trend of the 2nd favourite being backed and forcing the favourite out as a result! From now I think I'll have to change that view.

I just felt if I switched positions to the 2nd drifting it would result in loss and I'd be left kicking myself for changing my mind, which is normally a big mistake of mine.

[L.o.S]

Bit of a question..

Has something changed in racing recently? Whatever is going on, I've had about 5 straight losing days, after things were starting to move forward. I've never had that many losing days in a row and the losses have also got bigger and bigger. I don't know why, but I do know that at random my trading would be better so I don't know why I'm suddenly getting it wrong all the time.

Seems like prices are being violently thrown about, and almost luck as to whether you're on the right side of it.

In fact, blindly backing the favourite would probably return better than at the moment.

[Euler]

Today is bloody dreadful, but that's not a major surprise with two jumps meetings on. But also don't forget that Wimbledon is on and that sucks a lot of activity out of the market.

I'm busy on the men's 1/4's so I'm only dipping in and out of the racing.

[L.o.S]

I understand, just difficult to be calling it wrong consistantly. I don't want to stop trading for the day because sod's law any gains are just round the corner, but I can't realistically keep losing at this rate either.

[andyfuller]

I don't want to stop trading for the day because sod's law any gains are just round the corner, but I can't realistically keep losing at this rate either.

I think that sentence may go some way to answering your own question - you don't sound as though you are in the right place mentally to succeed at the moment.

Take a step back and think about your mental approach at the moment.

[L.o.S]

You're right, I'm not going the right way mentally towards trading at the moment. What's happened is I've went from complete novice, to not being afraid to trade because I know I'll make gains to even out the losses and then some, to losing almost every race, like going backwards.

How to get out of that spiral is troubling me and I'm carrying that into every race. Any advice on how to reframe my perspective?

[jimrobo]

racing markets have been really bad today. I expect a lot of traders have taken a hammering.

[Euler]

I agree, really, really weak today. I can't even get £100 taken!