Games with this Home win SP around this historically end up like this... I live with a Leicester fan ( I`m Derby) so will see. I always think BF odds less than the probability is a likely outcome
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ruthlessimon
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Do you have an opinion on the relegation odds?Kafkaesque wrote: ↑Fri Oct 25, 2019 5:33 pmSouthampton are just too sporatic for me to pull the trigger just yet, with the price on offer.
I've always got that market bookmarked! Honestly I'm surprised they're 7/2 & not lower. Tbqh, I think the only reason we've won games, Djenepo
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wearthefoxhat
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They create more chances away from home, but need to me more clinical. At home, they're about average overall.
Everton and Norwich away have their own problems!
As I write, Leicester have just gone 3-0 up and Southampton are down to 10 men after 20 minutes...so best to ignore todays performance.
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Kafkaesque
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Jeez, what a fun time to answer that, after that debacleruthlessimon wrote: ↑Fri Oct 25, 2019 6:44 pmDo you have an opinion on the relegation odds?Kafkaesque wrote: ↑Fri Oct 25, 2019 5:33 pmSouthampton are just too sporatic for me to pull the trigger just yet, with the price on offer.
I've always got that market bookmarked! Honestly I'm surprised they're 7/2 & not lower. Tbqh, I think the only reason we've won games, Djenepo
I would have said before tonight's match that the 4.5ish was probably about right. If anything too short. The 3 and bit being punted on the exchange now is most definitely an overreaction imho. Will go full circle to that. The relegation market is a strange old one this season, because there's usually at least one or two of the promoted teams who looks like they'll have a real uphill battle to make it, and then everything is really about who'll draw the short straw for one, maybe two, remaining slots going down. This year it's much more a whole host of well they could potentially go down.
My take has always been that skill players - wingers, 10's, and advanced 8's broadly - are overrated when adjudging a team over a whole tournament. They - with their form, availability and match-up with specific opponents - can make or break value for individual matches. But over longer stretches I'm looking much at how a team is stacked in core positions. Central defenders, 6's, and dependable consistent strikers are key over a full tourney for me, in that order (but reverse the order for knockout tourneys). Plus team synergy, which beyond a lot of hard-to-tell stuff is not having disruptive too big for their boots types (unless in the rare cases where the squad can carry it). I've only mentioned this once on here before iirc, which was pre WC 2018, and I had a stormer in those markets, if I can toot my own horn for a minute. I called Brazil, Spain, and Germany to flop, as well as incorrectly so England. I claimed France should have been the shortest price (was 3rd shortest iirc), and that they along with Belgium and Croatia were too a big a price, as well more meeeeh calls on Argentina and Colombia.
It's going to sound insane after tonight, but I believed before the match, that Soton are, in those core positions, ahead of all the other 6 main contenders to go down, and I still believe so now, despite them crumbling before our eyes. I'm not a fan of kneejerk manager sackings, and it's to Soton's credit and their advantage in the relegation battle, that they don't have a history of doing so. If Hassenhuttl goes it'll be because he's lost the dressing room beyond repair. As oppossed to board room panic.
This performance can either break the proverbial back of the Soton squad, or it can be a call to buck up and take on a siege mentality, given that a whole nation, nay world, is laughing at them right now. I'd take a stab and say the latter is going to happen. And whether it's the current manager or a new one in the near future barking at them, I maintain the core player ability is by far enough to survive. So going from 4.5ish to 3ish and, while writing this, going below 3 is truly an overreaction and might just more be traders looking to get in, than where it'll land.