Today's Football

[greenmark]

Southampton are just too sporatic for me to pull the trigger just yet, with the price on offer.

Do you have an opinion on the relegation odds?

I've always got that market bookmarked! Honestly I'm surprised they're 7/2 & not lower. Tbqh, I think the only reason we've won games, Djenepo

Jeez, what a fun time to answer that, after that debacle I would have said before tonight's match that the 4.5ish was probably about right. If anything too short. The 3 and bit being punted on the exchange now is most definitely an overreaction imho. Will go full circle to that.

The relegation market is a strange old one this season, because there's usually at least one or two of the promoted teams who looks like they'll have a real uphill battle to make it, and then everything is really about who'll draw the short straw for one, maybe two, remaining slots going down. This year it's much more a whole host of well they could potentially go down.

My take has always been that skill players - wingers, 10's, and advanced 8's broadly - are overrated when adjudging a team over a whole tournament. They - with their form, availability and match-up with specific opponents - can make or break value for individual matches. But over longer stretches I'm looking much at how a team is stacked in core positions. Central defenders, 6's, and dependable consistent strikers are key over a full tourney for me, in that order (but reverse the order for knockout tourneys). Plus team synergy, which beyond a lot of hard-to-tell stuff is not having disruptive too big for their boots types (unless in the rare cases where the squad can carry it). I've only mentioned this once on here before iirc, which was pre WC 2018, and I had a stormer in those markets, if I can toot my own horn for a minute. I called Brazil, Spain, and Germany to flop, as well as incorrectly so England. I claimed France should have been the shortest price (was 3rd shortest iirc), and that they along with Belgium and Croatia were too a big a price, as well more meeeeh calls on Argentina and Colombia.

It's going to sound insane after tonight, but I believed before the match, that Soton are, in those core positions, ahead of all the other 6 main contenders to go down, and I still believe so now, despite them crumbling before our eyes. I'm not a fan of kneejerk manager sackings, and it's to Soton's credit and their advantage in the relegation battle, that they don't have a history of doing so. If Hassenhuttl goes it'll be because he's lost the dressing room beyond repair. As oppossed to board room panic.

This performance can either break the proverbial back of the Soton squad, or it can be a call to buck up and take on a siege mentality, given that a whole nation, nay world, is laughing at them right now. I'd take a stab and say the latter is going to happen. And whether it's the current manager or a new one in the near future barking at them, I maintain the core player ability is by far enough to survive. So going from 4.5ish to 3ish and, while writing this, going below 3 is truly an overreaction and might just more be traders looking to get in, than where it'll land.

Better not conribute till tomorrow when I've calmed down.

[ruthlessimon]

Jeez, what a fun time to answer that, after that debacle

A really insightful analysis, big big ty Kaf

[jamesg46]

While last nights result was a kick up the arse for Southampton & a kick in the teeth for fans (I'm not trying to take the piss) I do wonder how it may impact on the home teams that play today & the mindset of players?

I understand some of you may still be a little sore and want to forget the whole thing, but I do hope that this gives Southampton what they need going forward.

Will we see some resilient home performances today? I suspect so.... if there was small print, it would say dont listen to James and his feelings.

[MemphisFlash]

This is purely for peter so he can relive the horror show from last night

https://youtu.be/-BIu5zOT25E

chart.JPG

[Kafkaesque]

Soooooo, VAR looked and looked at City's third goal. Presumably to try to see if David Silva got a touch on the cross come shot from De Bruyne, in which case Sterling was 100% offside in behind. No dice. Nothing clear and obvious. Goal stood. Fair enough.

Soooooo, now I see that the FA's dubious goals committee (or whatever it's called these days), have seen something clear and obvious enough to change it a David Silva goal.

Surely, surely, this should be the kiss of the death to VAR in its current format.

It won't be. But it should.

[JustLukeYou]

Does anyone know what is happening with Inter v Parma. On both Smarkets and BetFair the game was suspended and showed as Finished for nearly 5 minutes but the game was running continuously live to watch on SkyBet. I sent Smarkets a message and all they said was there was a technical fault. Does this happen often, on Smarkets it shows that someone backed £7k on a draw just before kickoff.




Inter 0-0 Parma
Finished (HT 0-0)

[greenmark]

Lovren again!!

[MobiusGrey]

Lovren again!!

Must've been at those pain killers again.

[greenmark]

Then again. With Lovren and Rose on the pitch, who knows what'll happen.

[Atho55]

This is a view of the stats that looks at "when HT score is" FT score HAS been this and counts the occurances. The Red shading is the Top 3 values.

2-1 @ HT.jpg

0-1 @ HT.jpg

0-2 @ HT.jpg

[Kai]

Arsenal Fan TV is a great watch after a bad match btw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7cG91fK1eA

[JustLukeYou]

Does anyone have a technique for trading upsets? Braga are strong favourites against Santa Clara tonight but I think Santa Clara can get something from the game. They are away and there form isn't good but they lost to Porto 1-0 in the cup and 2-0 in the league away. Braga concede at home than they score so I can't see how they can be strong favourites but I can't see how to play a trade with a safe way out.

[JTEDL]

If that's your view then you could lay Braga (1.49 at moment)

if they concede - cash out
if it stays 0-0 price will drift from KO
if they go 1-0 up, price will be around 1.17 - then you have a decision to make (stay in or trade out for loss)

Simples

[JustLukeYou]

I can see Braga not winning but think I will pass as the lay is to nigh. Just made a profit from U5.5 goals on Djurgarden, no point losing that on a whim tbh

[Kafkaesque]

Does anyone have a technique for trading upsets? Braga are strong favourites against Santa Clara tonight but I think Santa Clara can get something from the game. They are away and there form isn't good but they lost to Porto 1-0 in the cup and 2-0 in the league away. Braga concede at home than they score so I can't see how they can be strong favourites but I can't see how to play a trade with a safe way out.

For future reference, there's three approaches - obviously given the three selections available. As a rule:

1) Lay the fav. Unless your assessment is incorrect and the fav scores OR the fav dominates heavily, then you can trade out for a small profit at any time. Be aware that the price for fav will only drift very slowly until some time into the second half, unless they really do not like the fav they were made pre-match.
2) Back the draw. You'll be able to trade out for a profit at pretty much any time, but again not so for some time, if your assessment is off, and the fav dominates heavily. Even if you're very much correct and the dog scores first, you'll be able to trade out for a profit, as the draw price will drop after a big fav goes behind.
3) Back the dog. Obviously a big win, if the dog scores first. And even the ability the trade out for a profit for at least the first 15-20 minutes, if the dog is in it and looks like the might nick a goal.

Thus, for the initial trade into the market, the more you think the price is too short for the fav and the dog can stay in it, you should lean towards 1) or maybe 2). The more you feel the price for the dog is too big, and the dog can spring a surprise win, or at least take a lead, and not just stay in it, you should lean towards 3) or maybe 2). As for the trade out, there's no specific technique, as has been the case with much of the back and forth with you on here. It's a combination of what you're seeing in the match, your trading experience, and the gut feeling derived from those two.