UK General Election 2024 (or 25)

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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Derek27
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firlandsfarm wrote:
Mon Jul 10, 2023 10:01 am
Archangel wrote:
Sun Jul 09, 2023 6:36 pm
The only policy left for the Tories to cling to is stopping migrants crossing the channel. And they are making a complete balls of that also. The sooner this completely incompetent shower is gone from power the better...
It's amusing how some people condemn the Government for not solving an unsolvable problem without putting their solution clearly on the table in detail! You cannot stop the boats because of the unique position we are in where the sea border between us and France has no International water between us. We cannot push the boats back into French water and the rules of the sea say we must rescue them, especially when they have entered our water. The only shower here is the shower of misleading implications that there is a simple solution.

I look forward to reading the guaranteed solutions below.
You've just nailed it on the head. It's an unsolvable problem so don't promise to solve it!

It's hard to talk about a solution without first talking about what won't solve the problem, like punishing young children for the actions of their parents by painting over a Micky Mouse and Tom & Jerry cartoon. The Tories will be taking away their toys and picture books next. :lol:

Plenty of good ideas put forward, such as opening safe and legal routes, establishing agreements with all of Europe but particularly France, processing asylum claims in France, taking a quota of genuine migrants in return for France taking back the ones that cross without permission, etc.
Michael5482
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firlandsfarm wrote:
Mon Jul 10, 2023 10:01 am
Archangel wrote:
Sun Jul 09, 2023 6:36 pm
The only policy left for the Tories to cling to is stopping migrants crossing the channel. And they are making a complete balls of that also. The sooner this completely incompetent shower is gone from power the better...
It's amusing how some people condemn the Government for not solving an unsolvable problem without putting their solution clearly on the table in detail! You cannot stop the boats because of the unique position we are in where the sea border between us and France has no International water between us. We cannot push the boats back into French water and the rules of the sea say we must rescue them, especially when they have entered our water. The only shower here is the shower of misleading implications that there is a simple solution.

I look forward to reading the guaranteed solutions below.
For a solution look at the issue. Migrants come over the channel because there' no legal routes anymore. It's government policy that's created all this they need to fix it with policy. It's only unsolvable because of the incompetence of Tory ministers.

Re-open processing centers abroad, process people correctly (setup accommodation, support worker, medical requirements etc and anything else they may need prior to arrival) Then have valid legal departure points in certain countries giving people a free legal route to the UK once processed.

After that's established anyone crossing the channel or any other means they have to go straight back. Need to be tough here if we have sufficient legal points of entry.

Work with the French not just write them a big cheque every now and then hoping it'll go away. I was going to suggest go after the criminal gangs in Europe who traffic migrants but that's difficult after Brexit as we no longer have access to police information systems in Europe like the Schengen Information System or the European Arrest Warrant System. Good old Brexit eh :lol:
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firlandsfarm
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Derek27 wrote:
Mon Jul 10, 2023 10:15 am
You've just nailed it on the head. It's an unsolvable problem so don't promise to solve it!

It's hard to talk about a solution without first talking about what won't solve the problem, like punishing young children for the actions of their parents by painting over a Micky Mouse and Tom & Jerry cartoon. The Tories will be taking away their toys and picture books next. :lol:

Plenty of good ideas put forward, such as opening safe and legal routes, establishing agreements with all of Europe but particularly France, processing asylum claims in France, taking a quota of genuine migrants in return for France taking back the ones that cross without permission, etc.
Both sides of Parliament have been forced to 'solve it' because they criticise each other for not solving it and the media has jumped on the bandwagon and stirred up the voters. No party can admit it's not solvable because they will lose lots of votes and it would actually encourage more crossing! The gang masters will take out advertising saying "cross to the UK, they have admitted they can't stop you"!

I haven't got a clue what your second point is about!

Safe and legal routes are a 'catch 22'! As it currently stands you cannot claim asylum in the UK until you reach it's border so yes, to jump on a commercial flight/ferry is a legal route but it's not a route because the airline/ferry operator will not let you board without a valid passport and visa because the UK authorities insists the operator returns such back to the port of origin.

I don't think processing them in France/Europe would solve much. Those that are successful would still need to be housed and fed in the UK and those that are not successful would pop round the corner and jump on a RIB along with those that didn't bother to try the legal route because they were 'sold' to use the RIB route by the gang masters 'guaranteeing' getting them to the UK. And where is the motivation for European countries reaching agreement to help the UK reduce the number of legal claimants just so that the illegal ones stay within their country?

The problem is those that want to come to the Europe looking for a better life overwhelmingly outnumber the abilities to control them. It is like an unstoppable tsunami, it is the power of the crowd! Greece and Italy have discovered this but maybe Spain may have found a way (I've no idea what). The number of irregular immigrants arriving in Spain has been declining since 2018, when a record 64,300 irregular immigrants entered the country falling to 31,219 in 2022 (source: Google Bard) and I was in Seville in May and was surprised by the apparent lack of possible migrants in view. Maybe they are mostly stuck in the Canaries, Melilla and Ceuta! :D
Last edited by firlandsfarm on Mon Jul 10, 2023 11:46 am, edited 2 times in total.
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firlandsfarm
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Michael5482 wrote:
Mon Jul 10, 2023 11:00 am
For a solution look at the issue. Migrants come over the channel because there' no legal routes anymore. It's government policy that's created all this they need to fix it with policy. It's only unsolvable because of the incompetence of Tory ministers.

Re-open processing centers abroad, process people correctly (setup accommodation, support worker, medical requirements etc and anything else they may need prior to arrival) Then have valid legal departure points in certain countries giving people a free legal route to the UK once processed.

After that's established anyone crossing the channel or any other means they have to go straight back. Need to be tough here if we have sufficient legal points of entry.

Work with the French not just write them a big cheque every now and then hoping it'll go away. I was going to suggest go after the criminal gangs in Europe who traffic migrants but that's difficult after Brexit as we no longer have access to police information systems in Europe like the Schengen Information System or the European Arrest Warrant System. Good old Brexit eh :lol:
I have looked at the issue, see my response to Derek in respect of the points you raise.

"Re-open processing centres abroad ...". That won't solve anything and have you the agreement of those countries to house the claimants while waiting for their claim to be decided?

"After that's established anyone crossing the channel or any other means they have to go straight back." Straight back to where? France won't want them and they dispose of their passports before setting out on their crossing so there is no way to definitively know where else to send them back too. Also the LL brigade and their band of lawyers will contest such action.

But if all else fails you can always blame Brexit! :lol:
Michael5482
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firlandsfarm wrote:
Mon Jul 10, 2023 11:42 am
Michael5482 wrote:
Mon Jul 10, 2023 11:00 am
For a solution look at the issue. Migrants come over the channel because there' no legal routes anymore. It's government policy that's created all this they need to fix it with policy. It's only unsolvable because of the incompetence of Tory ministers.

Re-open processing centers abroad, process people correctly (setup accommodation, support worker, medical requirements etc and anything else they may need prior to arrival) Then have valid legal departure points in certain countries giving people a free legal route to the UK once processed.

After that's established anyone crossing the channel or any other means they have to go straight back. Need to be tough here if we have sufficient legal points of entry.

Work with the French not just write them a big cheque every now and then hoping it'll go away. I was going to suggest go after the criminal gangs in Europe who traffic migrants but that's difficult after Brexit as we no longer have access to police information systems in Europe like the Schengen Information System or the European Arrest Warrant System. Good old Brexit eh :lol:
I have looked at the issue, see my response to Derek in respect of the points you raise.

"Re-open processing centres abroad ...". That won't solve anything and have you the agreement of those countries to house the claimants while waiting for their claim to be decided?

"After that's established anyone crossing the channel or any other means they have to go straight back." Straight back to where? France won't want them and they dispose of their passports before setting out on their crossing so there is no way to definitively know where else to send them back too. Also the LL brigade and their band of lawyers will contest such action.

But if all else fails you can always blame Brexit! :lol:
You send them back to the country of their nationality. I'm sure most counties will be obliging for the UK to have processing centers, be a lot cheaper than hotels and barges.

Since Brexit and the new migration system being introduced in 2021 to replace the free movement of people, migration in the UK is now at an all time high so yes we can look to Brexit as a main mitigating factor concerning high net migration but the Government can't admit to this as they'd have to admit Brexit was a mistake so instead they look to attack migrants using gas lighting tactics and spend millions on an illegal idea to send them to Rwanda

It's the Tory's who want sending to Rwanda.

eYe VoTid BeXit 2 cOnTroL Owa oWn BoRdAs m8
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Derek27
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Perhaps a homes for migrants scheme would be the answer. I can provide a home for the right migrant. :D
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firlandsfarm
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Michael5482 wrote:
Mon Jul 10, 2023 12:58 pm
You send them back to the country of their nationality. I'm sure most counties will be obliging for the UK to have processing centers, be a lot cheaper than hotels and barges.

Since Brexit and the new migration system being introduced in 2021 to replace the free movement of people, migration in the UK is now at an all time high so yes we can look to Brexit as a main mitigating factor concerning high net migration but the Government can't admit to this as they'd have to admit Brexit was a mistake so instead they look to attack migrants using gas lighting tactics and spend millions on an illegal idea to send them to Rwanda

It's the Tory's who want sending to Rwanda.

eYe VoTid BeXit 2 cOnTroL Owa oWn BoRdAs m8
You can't send them back to their country of nationality if you don't know where it is and they don't tell you. And if you try without proof the intended receiving country can just say "he/she is not one of ours, we won't let them in". This is often the problem here ... critics of the situation seem to think everyone will agree with it and implement it.

For the reasons already given I don't think they will be obliging ... if so why are so many complaining that France is not pulling it's finger out to stop them coming to the UK? We would take the genuine claimants and they will be left with the fakers! Also as of now as soon as they get on a boat they are no longer the responsibility of that country but if we have processing centres in those European countries claimants would have to be housed and fed until their claim is accepted or rejected meaning the claimants would be on French (or other) soil for longer than then just catching a boat! I can see no advantage (motivation) for mainland European countries to agree to such an arrangement.

As for the level of immigration you are assuming that the pre-Brexit level would have prevailed if we had stay in the EU but it may have become more, much more, more than we are experiencing now. It's a trap Starmer and his merry band of Misleaders constantly fall for ... they compare the Now with the Was and not what the Was may have become if nothing had changed. So No you cannot blame Brexit as a main factor except of course as every Remoaner knows Brexit is to blame for everything bad in their lives.

I would rather do the Remoaners a favour and send them to Rwanda, they would love it.

And as for your last line ... did you? :D
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firlandsfarm
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Derek27 wrote:
Mon Jul 10, 2023 1:02 pm
Perhaps a homes for migrants scheme would be the answer. I can provide a home for the right migrant. :D
:lol: :lol: :lol: so long as they are playing for the right team? :D
Michael5482
Posts: 1693
Joined: Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:11 pm

firlandsfarm wrote:
Mon Jul 10, 2023 3:01 pm
Michael5482 wrote:
Mon Jul 10, 2023 12:58 pm
You send them back to the country of their nationality. I'm sure most counties will be obliging for the UK to have processing centers, be a lot cheaper than hotels and barges.

Since Brexit and the new migration system being introduced in 2021 to replace the free movement of people, migration in the UK is now at an all time high so yes we can look to Brexit as a main mitigating factor concerning high net migration but the Government can't admit to this as they'd have to admit Brexit was a mistake so instead they look to attack migrants using gas lighting tactics and spend millions on an illegal idea to send them to Rwanda

It's the Tory's who want sending to Rwanda.

eYe VoTid BeXit 2 cOnTroL Owa oWn BoRdAs m8
You can't send them back to their country of nationality if you don't know where it is and they don't tell you. And if you try without proof the intended receiving country can just say "he/she is not one of ours, we won't let them in". This is often the problem here ... critics of the situation seem to think everyone will agree with it and implement it.

For the reasons already given I don't think they will be obliging ... if so why are so many complaining that France is not pulling it's finger out to stop them coming to the UK? We would take the genuine claimants and they will be left with the fakers! Also as of now as soon as they get on a boat they are no longer the responsibility of that country but if we have processing centres in those European countries claimants would have to be housed and fed until their claim is accepted or rejected meaning the claimants would be on French (or other) soil for longer than then just catching a boat! I can see no advantage (motivation) for mainland European countries to agree to such an arrangement.

As for the level of immigration you are assuming that the pre-Brexit level would have prevailed if we had stay in the EU but it may have become more, much more, more than we are experiencing now. It's a trap Starmer and his merry band of Misleaders constantly fall for ... they compare the Now with the Was and not what the Was may have become if nothing had changed. So No you cannot blame Brexit as a main factor except of course as every Remoaner knows Brexit is to blame for everything bad in their lives.

I would rather do the Remoaners a favour and send them to Rwanda, they would love it.

And as for your last line ... did you? :D
You use the data ,where do the majority of migrants come from and locate center as close to the epicenters as possible. I wasn't thinking of Europe tbh as majority come form outside the EU. Process people in the country of origin then there's no nationality issues. That's the problem with a lot of people I find is they always looking for reasons things can't be done instead of the why and how.

I've not assumed anything net migration is at its highest ever and increased since we left the EU the numbers support my view.

What may or may not have been had we stayed in the EU has no relevance this is your assumption which you've then somehow managed to turn into attempt to have a go at people who voted remain and another political party that has had nothing to do with migration for over 13 years.
Archery1969
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Given the issues with sending migrants to Rwanda there is now talk of sending them to St. Helna in the South Atlantic. Its a British territory, considered safe apart from the Volcano and no chance of them swimming or getting a boat back.
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firlandsfarm
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Michael5482 wrote:
Mon Jul 10, 2023 3:51 pm
[You use the data ,where do the majority of migrants come from and locate center as close to the epicenters as possible. I wasn't thinking of Europe tbh as majority come form outside the EU. Process people in the country of origin then there's no nationality issues.
The majority make the crossing from Europe and without documentation as to where they originate from you don't know where to send them back to other than your guesswork and you expect the countries you have guessed at accept them whether your guess is correct or not. And as for having processing centres in their own country why should they line up for your processing centre when the gang masters can guarantee entry to the UK. Again you are assuming that everyone will say "thank you Michael, I will form an orderly queue in the country I need to get away from because my life is in danger and my enemies will not touch me while I wait"! Really! As I said you are expecting other countries and the claimants to fall in line and accept your rules! It will not happen and it is naive of you to think it will.
Michael5482 wrote:
Mon Jul 10, 2023 3:51 pm
That's the problem with a lot of people I find is they always looking for reasons things can't be done instead of the why and how.
I'm looking for workable solutions, we can't dictate to these countries to do our bidding. I would rather try to find a workable than waste time trying to enforce an unworkable system on to an unreceptive country and people.
Michael5482 wrote:
Mon Jul 10, 2023 3:51 pm
I've not assumed anything net migration is at its highest ever and increased since we left the EU the numbers support my view.
You said "we can look to Brexit as a main mitigating factor concerning high net migration" and without facts to support that it must be an assumption.
Michael5482 wrote:
Mon Jul 10, 2023 3:51 pm
What may or may not have been had we stayed in the EU has no relevance this is your assumption which you've then somehow managed to turn into attempt to have a go at people who voted remain and another political party that has had nothing to do with migration for over 13 years.
What may have happened if we had stayed in the EU has every relevance if you are making comparisons post Brexit.

I didn't make an assumption, quite the opposite, I said that because we don't know what would have happened if we had remained in the EU we cannot say it is down to Brexit in the main.

I'm not having a go that they voted Remain, I'm having a go that they are so snowflake cry-baby that they want to blame everything on Brexit and my 'go' at the other political party is because I am fed up with them and their supporting public continually claiming they can do better without laying out precisely how they will do so. If you want to say someone is wrong then at least have the grace to detail what you would do that will be better but instead we get empty meaningless platitudes.
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firlandsfarm
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Archery1969 wrote:
Mon Jul 10, 2023 4:18 pm
Given the issues with sending migrants to Rwanda there is now talk of sending them to St. Helna in the South Atlantic. Its a British territory, considered safe apart from the Volcano and no chance of them swimming or getting a boat back.
Napoleon was comfortable there but that's totally unworkable. The population of St Helena is c.6,000+ so how many migrants could we send there without upsetting the status quo and enabling them to keep law and order?
Archery1969
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firlandsfarm wrote:
Mon Jul 10, 2023 6:43 pm
Archery1969 wrote:
Mon Jul 10, 2023 4:18 pm
Given the issues with sending migrants to Rwanda there is now talk of sending them to St. Helna in the South Atlantic. Its a British territory, considered safe apart from the Volcano and no chance of them swimming or getting a boat back.
Napoleon was comfortable there but that's totally unworkable. The population of St Helena is c.6,000+ so how many migrants could we send there without upsetting the status quo and enabling them to keep law and order?
I believe there are 800 soldiers there. So if things get out of hand then they can intervene without Parliaments approval. Although it might be a bit like the Falklands who don’t like outsiders.
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Derek27
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This thread's about political betting. :lol:
Archery1969
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Derek27 wrote:
Mon Jul 10, 2023 8:15 pm
This thread's about political betting. :lol:
Well, could have fooled me. 🤣
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