Rubbish racing

[Iron]

Hi Rhys

If I were you, I'd focus on practicing using extremely small stakes, and record yourself trading, until you work out where you're going wrong. It might just be that you're over-trading, rather than just waiting for conditions to favour your style of trading (even if that could mean sitting on your hands for several races in succession).

And remember that, once you've worked out what you're doing wrong, you will be able to compound a small bank very, very quickly, so I wouldn't worry too much about the fact that you're not earning. I'd just focus on getting your technique right.

Good luck!

Jeff

I either need a decent paid part time job or just try and get a good full time job and try and get away from trading altogether.

[manonthemoon]

Hey Rhys - sorry to hear your trading's gone off the boil a little, but I'm sure you'll get back on form again soon. Maybe as Jeff suggests it's down to over-trading or jumping in too early, which I catch myself doing from time to time. You might also want to consider a Skype trading buddy to help balance things out or someone to bounce opinion off during those damaging moments. I haven't done that for a while, but it helped me when I did, and generally stopped me second guessing my own decisions. If you've traded well before I'm sure it's more psychological than strange forces in the markets. I have found some of the markets tough going of late, but when I look at errors I've made, MOST of the time it's been me doing something dumb rather than the market behaving strangely. But I'd still like to get a better sense of how cross-matching has affected things. Anyway, best of luck bouncing back.

[CaerMyrddin]

Hey rhysmr2, maybe you are over stressing yourself? I understand the pressure to earn money, I guess (almost) all of us must cope with it, but if it is hurting you maybe you should get another way of dealing with it.

I understand that stepping down like the other guys are suggesting may be tough, but at least it will prevent you from losing money. Did you consider taking a couple of days off, just to get your ideas in the right place?

And well it's not the end of the world if you decide to give up trading all together. Like Euler, I can't see myself doing this for 20 years, so maybe it's a decision we will all be facing in the future.

Anyway, good luck mate!

[gutuami]

rhysmr2 set a low target per day, say 50pounds. If you reach it just get out. You need a few good days in a row to get your confidence back. And do not think about the races that remains and the possibility of making money trading them. And be more patient.

[Euler]

Looking at tomorrows card, I think it's an early start to Easter this year.

[Iron]

Would that suggest to you that there are proportionally more traders and/or bots in the market than previously?

Jeff

It's generally harder to get an order filled without it going against you.

[Euler]

First race at Wolvs today. £138k at post time

[Euler]

None of the early races are anywhere near 'normal' levels. Curious.

[pt9091]

traders day off today? really thin not worth trading most of the races, no real money about, though it is Monday!

[mulberryhawk]

Is the racing rubbish or is it the markets that are rubbish? Since the introduction of Cross matching to the pre race markets, it seems to me that the markets seem a lot more decisive. I have noticed alot of favourites going off in the low % of their trading range.

Has anyone else noticed this or is it just my perception?

[Euler]

There has been a distinct shift since cross matching was introduced but it's mainly affected the fill rate.

[Euler]

As for today, volumes perked up a bit but a fairly typically Monday. Bereft of quality opportunties.

[mulberryhawk]

Do you think its plausable that Betfair are front running traders orders, and identifying and taking out stops.

If they can muscle in on traders margins then its more profit for them. Or is this a bit paranoid.

[Euler]

I think you have to assume paranoia unless you have firm evidence to the contrary. However, we have very high quality data on the markets before and after cross matching and after the introduction the markets shifted by much more than we forecast. Which begs the question of why?

If there was one thing we had to point to is was that the rate at which orders filled fell a lot after it was switched on. You could argue it knocked some players out of the market and that is why the fill rate fell but in fact the data seems to reporting more money on offer in the market on average which is the opposite of players falling out of the market. It's all a bit odd. You could argue that cross matching has put more money on the other side of the book but it looks like there is too much for that to be the case.

Or it could be a coincidence, some data error or abberation. We are continuing to analyse the data.