Mad Bomber??
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steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
Do they drop their bombs during the summer season when real money is around?
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steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
" don't think it's sensible to just smash a manipulator from a trading perspecive either as they're likely just to build a wall of money behind the original price you took and will likely push the price further from where you want to go (has happened when I've tried it.) It may work in certain situations but you have to remember that whoever is behind it have extremely deep pockets, are happy to take on liability and may well have other advantages that normal traders do not have"
100 % agreed. I presume he is more active at this time of year (just a guess), when he knows that the majority of people in the market are traders. He knows that on the whole people will trade out of a position so he can make a market and trade it either way (up or down the ladder), knowing eventually the market will settle at a higher/lower point and then he can trade out or smash it back the other way.
As you say, it takes deep pockets, big balls and years of experience of knowing how people will eventually react.
I actually owe him a beer as he brought the devil out in my last week and won me almost 20gs! but the blood pressure during the race (inplay) should have been at least double. haha
100 % agreed. I presume he is more active at this time of year (just a guess), when he knows that the majority of people in the market are traders. He knows that on the whole people will trade out of a position so he can make a market and trade it either way (up or down the ladder), knowing eventually the market will settle at a higher/lower point and then he can trade out or smash it back the other way.
As you say, it takes deep pockets, big balls and years of experience of knowing how people will eventually react.
I actually owe him a beer as he brought the devil out in my last week and won me almost 20gs! but the blood pressure during the race (inplay) should have been at least double. haha
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Mr Undercover
- Posts: 226
- Joined: Thu Nov 03, 2011 7:22 pm
Hi Guys - I'm beginning to think the bomber might actually be a trading floor in one of the big establishments off setting their risk. I know for a fact all of the highstreet arb their risk thru BF when they need to and undoubtedly most online books do the same. Most of them will do this discreetly bleeding in small amounts at a time but I suspect the guy executing the transaction for bomber.com is just not very smart to the task so when instructed to dump £50k on a favourite... we know what happens next... and notice it's nearly always multiples of £25k which fits, and he always keeps going until he's exhausted the pile. This would explain how and why it's gone on for so long.
I just can't see that a celeb/indivdual could sustain these enormous punts/losses for too long. An extremely wealthy Arab or similar would in my opinion be unlikely to use BF, they are more inclined to use a personalised VIP service like Victor Chandler or one of the big american casino houses who will throw all sorts of luxuries at them (a very sophisticated market). It might be some rogue washing through ill gotten gains from a fallen dictatorship or some nafarious scheme but I would expect BF's KYC process to flag it and reluctantly shut it down - they would not risk the rath of the GC.
The only thing that makes me doubt this theory is the in-play behaviour. Whoever or whatever it is has vast sums of money to play with I'd estimate in the 10s not single digit millions.
thoughts?
I just can't see that a celeb/indivdual could sustain these enormous punts/losses for too long. An extremely wealthy Arab or similar would in my opinion be unlikely to use BF, they are more inclined to use a personalised VIP service like Victor Chandler or one of the big american casino houses who will throw all sorts of luxuries at them (a very sophisticated market). It might be some rogue washing through ill gotten gains from a fallen dictatorship or some nafarious scheme but I would expect BF's KYC process to flag it and reluctantly shut it down - they would not risk the rath of the GC.
The only thing that makes me doubt this theory is the in-play behaviour. Whoever or whatever it is has vast sums of money to play with I'd estimate in the 10s not single digit millions.
thoughts?
If it was someone trying to offset liability Mrundercover then the kind of behaviour we see where he bombs one horse in one race, then as soon as that horse has lost bombs another in another race in play that is being run simulataneously, doesnt fit. Surely he'd not sit back watching the previous race if his firm had liability on another runner in another race? Anyhow the way that he is so sporadic and inefficient indicates that there's no way he can be working in any 'professional' manner
Btw how do you know that the big bookies offset liability on betfair? Small on course operators, sure, but I think the bigger ones just accept the risk in house - many of them, especially the bigger ones take far far more volume than betfair does so it would be impossible to lay it all off on betfair.
Btw how do you know that the big bookies offset liability on betfair? Small on course operators, sure, but I think the bigger ones just accept the risk in house - many of them, especially the bigger ones take far far more volume than betfair does so it would be impossible to lay it all off on betfair.
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steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
If it boils down to someone using their bank to control the markets. Quite possibly, yes!
Any time I see a big move of any kind I'm thinking 'is it him?... is it the bomber?' We can imagine some guy sky high on drugs suddendly deciding on a whim to start laying everything just when everyone has loaded thousands on expecting the back...gutuami wrote:Has our explosives expert {bomber} transformed into a demolitionist
lots of favorites were drifting today
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steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
Or they have made/ set up the market early on, on both sides of the book and as soon as a worth while amount of money comes in on either side of the ladder they just push through that money and their own money on either side of the market until initiating the swing? If it was mainly their money on both sides of the book (early on say ten mins out) they could just push the odds to a position they liked?
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Mr Undercover
- Posts: 226
- Joined: Thu Nov 03, 2011 7:22 pm
Hi Hgodden - I work in the industry, I know how the trading floors operate, I've been involved with a few, and have experience of working with BF on their access to the exchange policy - it's a very controvertial area.
Suffice to say all the trading floors in the major high streets and online bookies have exchange accounts. You are right, they do carry the majority of risk themselves (it's where the profit is) however when there is a spike of liability beyond a theshold, typically on a favourite, they will look to balance the book by passing on liability. A trader will be given an instruction of a certain amount, a block of money typically multiple of 5k but 25k would probably fit with a big high street (bear in mind it's only the spike beyond the theshold they'll be looking to remove). Mostly this money will be bled slowly into the market and we might not notice it.
My theory, which could be completely wrong, is that an inexperienced trader is simply dumping too much too quickly. If for example the bookie was offering 5.0 on a horse and betfair 6.0 he'll be happy to take anything that averages above 5.0 which would explain the rash behaviour and why he always attempts to get his entire amount matched.
This said, I'm reading reports of laying activity which doesn't really fit if the same guy.
The in-play activity is completely bizarre and looks more likely to be a big on-course trader in my view.
This is all conjecture and just my opinion but I do hope it is an inept trader for a big bookie because it'll carry on for sometime yet.
Suffice to say all the trading floors in the major high streets and online bookies have exchange accounts. You are right, they do carry the majority of risk themselves (it's where the profit is) however when there is a spike of liability beyond a theshold, typically on a favourite, they will look to balance the book by passing on liability. A trader will be given an instruction of a certain amount, a block of money typically multiple of 5k but 25k would probably fit with a big high street (bear in mind it's only the spike beyond the theshold they'll be looking to remove). Mostly this money will be bled slowly into the market and we might not notice it.
My theory, which could be completely wrong, is that an inexperienced trader is simply dumping too much too quickly. If for example the bookie was offering 5.0 on a horse and betfair 6.0 he'll be happy to take anything that averages above 5.0 which would explain the rash behaviour and why he always attempts to get his entire amount matched.
This said, I'm reading reports of laying activity which doesn't really fit if the same guy.
The in-play activity is completely bizarre and looks more likely to be a big on-course trader in my view.
This is all conjecture and just my opinion but I do hope it is an inept trader for a big bookie because it'll carry on for sometime yet.
Hi Mr Undercover
Do the bookies know what the true odds of a horse are?
If so, would they sometimes back on Betfair under those odds, in order to limit their liability?
Also, would you say that bookies move prices on Betfair, or is it the other way around?
Thanks
Jeff
Do the bookies know what the true odds of a horse are?
If so, would they sometimes back on Betfair under those odds, in order to limit their liability?
Also, would you say that bookies move prices on Betfair, or is it the other way around?
Thanks
Jeff
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Mr Undercover
- Posts: 226
- Joined: Thu Nov 03, 2011 7:22 pm
Hi Ferru123,
Do the bookies know the true odds of a horse? Absolutely! they monitor the exchanges minute to minute particularly at the business end of the day. As you'd imagine they have sophicated systems to maintain their overround typically 17-15% highstreet and 8-10% online. They'll fluctuate the price through the course of the day if necessary to try and stay below the exchanges and maintain margin as best they can, it's not an exact science as you can't predict how much will be staked and when.
They only back on BF to remove spikes of liability. The threshold beyond which they begin to pass on risk is calculated as a percentage of the anticipated total stake for the race. So, they might anticipate taking £1m on a particular race and therefore the head trader might decide he will only accept £1m of liability on one particular horse winning. It's often much more than this sometimes 200-300%. Basic stuff I appreciate. The art of the trading floor is to spot where too much liability is accumulating and pass it on quickly.
In the normal run of things the amounts the high street are off setting on the exchanges will have little or no impact. However, during major events like Cheltenham the major bookies probably have a massive impact, particular when you see favourites coming in all day. Laddies, Hills, Coral and the like have a nightmare scenario with the favourites. Kauto on current form will have all the CEOs praying at the altar this year and the trading floors running around like headless chickens... trust me. Listed companies much prefer to have a smooth consistent growing profit, dips in revenue due to "an unfortunate sequence of results" never reflects well on the management team in my experience they just get critised for not handling their risk better - usually by a sector specialist from an investment bank... but lets not go there.
I think the price is pushed around by many factors but during the big events the surplus liability from the big bookies enivitably spills over into the exchanges for sure and on those days they control the price I'm sure. During an average day like today Betfair will be dictating the price and everyone else following, and I suspect this is mostly traders with a smattering of inside knowledge.
Hope my inane rambling help, I'm sure you know most of it already.
Do the bookies know the true odds of a horse? Absolutely! they monitor the exchanges minute to minute particularly at the business end of the day. As you'd imagine they have sophicated systems to maintain their overround typically 17-15% highstreet and 8-10% online. They'll fluctuate the price through the course of the day if necessary to try and stay below the exchanges and maintain margin as best they can, it's not an exact science as you can't predict how much will be staked and when.
They only back on BF to remove spikes of liability. The threshold beyond which they begin to pass on risk is calculated as a percentage of the anticipated total stake for the race. So, they might anticipate taking £1m on a particular race and therefore the head trader might decide he will only accept £1m of liability on one particular horse winning. It's often much more than this sometimes 200-300%. Basic stuff I appreciate. The art of the trading floor is to spot where too much liability is accumulating and pass it on quickly.
In the normal run of things the amounts the high street are off setting on the exchanges will have little or no impact. However, during major events like Cheltenham the major bookies probably have a massive impact, particular when you see favourites coming in all day. Laddies, Hills, Coral and the like have a nightmare scenario with the favourites. Kauto on current form will have all the CEOs praying at the altar this year and the trading floors running around like headless chickens... trust me. Listed companies much prefer to have a smooth consistent growing profit, dips in revenue due to "an unfortunate sequence of results" never reflects well on the management team in my experience they just get critised for not handling their risk better - usually by a sector specialist from an investment bank... but lets not go there.
I think the price is pushed around by many factors but during the big events the surplus liability from the big bookies enivitably spills over into the exchanges for sure and on those days they control the price I'm sure. During an average day like today Betfair will be dictating the price and everyone else following, and I suspect this is mostly traders with a smattering of inside knowledge.
Hope my inane rambling help, I'm sure you know most of it already.
Thanks Undercover - It's very interesting to know what goes on 'behind the curtain'! 
Let's say a bookmaker lowers their price on a favourite. It seems to me that there could be two reasons for this. Either:
A. They want to reduce their exposure on a particular horse.
OR
B. They are using reverse psychology, and think that, by lowering the price, punters will assume that the horse is fancied by people in the know, and the volume of bets placed will increase as a result.
Which would you say is more likely?
Jeff
Let's say a bookmaker lowers their price on a favourite. It seems to me that there could be two reasons for this. Either:
A. They want to reduce their exposure on a particular horse.
OR
B. They are using reverse psychology, and think that, by lowering the price, punters will assume that the horse is fancied by people in the know, and the volume of bets placed will increase as a result.
Which would you say is more likely?
Jeff
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Mr Undercover
- Posts: 226
- Joined: Thu Nov 03, 2011 7:22 pm
Hi Ferru,
Interesting question. Most trading floor managers will be handed a mandate from the FD to maintain an overround of 17% or whatever and so will try to get the balance between being commpetitive with their percieved competitors always getting marketing to boast about "best price" or whatever nonsense they've come up with to ensure price sensitive punters are garanteed a match with competitors best odds (notice this always excludes the exchanges) while at the same time endeavouring to edge in on the favourite. Generally it means the highstreet punter gets a worse deal.
I'm not aware that they'll intentionally dip a price to try and generate a movement, the market is just too efficient and punters will switch from Laddies to Hills to Coral to get better value at the drop of a hat. The average online guy has 5x accounts. Also, these big corporate companies are like machines they are just not interested in playing games to manipulate the market.
They will dip the price at big meetings if there is a rush of money for a favourite and the liability is building towards threshold i.e. better to get as much money as possible on your own book even if you're being uncompetitive before passing the excess to someone elses book usually BF. If you see a horse coming in strong it means everybody has got it wrong and the industry is scrambling to get rid of their liability this is something they try to avoid. If they see the early signs of huge liability generating for one particular horse, like Kauto, they'll start taking a position on BF early doors to avoid an unprofitable rush.
It's a very tricky business balancing a book I'm sure you appreciate.
So after that great long ramble I'd say Option A to reduce exposure.
Interesting question. Most trading floor managers will be handed a mandate from the FD to maintain an overround of 17% or whatever and so will try to get the balance between being commpetitive with their percieved competitors always getting marketing to boast about "best price" or whatever nonsense they've come up with to ensure price sensitive punters are garanteed a match with competitors best odds (notice this always excludes the exchanges) while at the same time endeavouring to edge in on the favourite. Generally it means the highstreet punter gets a worse deal.
I'm not aware that they'll intentionally dip a price to try and generate a movement, the market is just too efficient and punters will switch from Laddies to Hills to Coral to get better value at the drop of a hat. The average online guy has 5x accounts. Also, these big corporate companies are like machines they are just not interested in playing games to manipulate the market.
They will dip the price at big meetings if there is a rush of money for a favourite and the liability is building towards threshold i.e. better to get as much money as possible on your own book even if you're being uncompetitive before passing the excess to someone elses book usually BF. If you see a horse coming in strong it means everybody has got it wrong and the industry is scrambling to get rid of their liability this is something they try to avoid. If they see the early signs of huge liability generating for one particular horse, like Kauto, they'll start taking a position on BF early doors to avoid an unprofitable rush.
It's a very tricky business balancing a book I'm sure you appreciate.
So after that great long ramble I'd say Option A to reduce exposure.
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psycho040253
- Posts: 109
- Joined: Thu Mar 10, 2011 9:29 pm
Is anyone aware that what looks to be the Bomber is also operating on Betdaq?
Psycho
Psycho