chuck536 wrote:Ever since that freeze markets do feel different, I'm not battling against something all across the book, really hard to put my finger on but feels different. What exactly do you mean HG?
Very interesting to hear that Caan. I don't know what you experienced exactly, but obviously when something goes wrong with the API then individuals will stop trading for the sake of safety.
Now, aside from there being an everpresent market maker on betfair..... there is a very big player who has a 'silhoeutte type' bot which looks to dominate activity on all the runners and which looks to read traders orders, test them and push against them, trying to soak up all the punter money it can for itself. When it is active, which is most of the time over the years, then naturally traders will find it far harder to trade and will have their orders targeted. When it does push against you, you would be foolish to push back against it, as, the individual behind it is so big that it is happy to take on liability on runners in order to create a lopsided P and L in order to generate huge amounts of commission to avoid paying 60% PC..... so if you wait it out hoping it will try to close for a loss or a scratch, most of the time it wont, because it simply doesn't need to, that's how big it is. You need to hedge, it doesn't. For an individual user, there is simply no level playing field when this is active, which is most of the time. This goes far beyond the normal 'manipulation' people talk about, is far more subtle and clever, and operates across the runners. You would need to be a nuclear physist bot programmer with an enormous bank to level the playing field against it.
Incidentally, this is not imagination. I have several videos from the autumn before last which shows the before, and the enourmous after effect, that this bot has on the markets when the individual behind it started trading mid racing for a few weeks. Remarkably, they also show the individual behind it signing in to skype each day within minutes of the bot becoming active. A temporary slip, I guess
Cetainly is not betfair doing it and I can prove that.
So I hope that helps Caan, I could go into far more detail but I'm just off out now. Btw I saw your blog, I think it's one of the better ones, i.e. showing the ups and downs and an honest assessment of what it's like being a trader. Maybe sometime I could write an article or two on there about my experiences as a trader and what is really required in this crazy game to try to give newbies an honest take on it all regarding some of the pitfalls and sharks to avoid. There is so much out there that even most decent established traders don't know about that would amaze them behind the scenes! What's the best way to contact you?
only there for a couple years and I have never clicked on it untill now !!!
