Today's Horse Racing

[goat68]

Newc 13:45 George Ridsdale
Steamer or not?

The steamers and drifters are the easy ones afaic. it's the ones that go nowhere that can get you in bother.

Yes maybe.
But what I was sort of demonstrating their is I'm looking at the market and making judgement, but just vaguely with no solid method, so how can that ever be profitable in the long run...I'm as good as gambling!

[Trader724]

What you say rings very true with what I've read that to trade manually successfully you need several years worth of experience in the market so that you can sublimely spot minor patterns that you unconsciously have seen before....
That's a hard thing to take as a newbie...

How long it takes to become profitable depends on the methodology you have in creating a strategy, the tactics you use also matter, there are small things that if you do them properly they give you certain advantages, and how you cope psychologically with the stress involved. I managed to become profitable after three months trading manually on a 6.5% commission, I didn't know anything about the markets before and I honestly can't say I worked too hard or very smart until I saw with my own eyes that it can be done and It is relatively simple to make some money but this is only the first step towards becoming a professional. Regarding manual versus automatic trading, I can say that automatic trading helps you a lot on the execution side and manual trading does not require years of experience to become profitable but it depends on your inclinations and it is very possible that you will never succeed either manually or automatic if you don't do the right things. You don't have to lose hope if you have already lost some time without seeing any success, it means that what you are doing is not good and you have to approach things from a different perspective.

So I think the key bit you mention here is the 'small things that give you an advantage', ie.your edge over the crowd.
Take Trader Pat's example from yesterday, so he got in at 2.7 based on weak looking fav2&3, sounds simple but what Trader Pat is not mentioning is those smaller things...those small indications that give him an edge, and he's obviously not going to tell us.
My mistake was adopting that sort of strategy which is what comes across from a lot of Peter's videos as well, just looking at charts and ladders and saying that's weak and drifting, and that, but the fav looks strong, looks like backing activity,
back it!!
I just fail to work out what these small edges are........?

When you say that one selection is weak, what do you classify as weak? Did you measure it? One of the mistakes of novice traders is that they begin to assume things that are not necessarily true and build from the wrong foundation. You don't have to assume, you have to measure everything and then you will know for sure. In trading, numbers and percentages are essential. An edge in trading is when you discover something that happens more often or less often than at random because of other market participants. Tactics are how and in what order you execute something to be as effective as possible.

[goat68]

I feel as though I am learning from my experience and mistakes, but just not found what will work in the long run yet.....

[Korattt]

I just fail to work out what these small edges are........?

give it time, what’s your equipment set up?

[goat68]

How long it takes to become profitable depends on the methodology you have in creating a strategy, the tactics you use also matter, there are small things that if you do them properly they give you certain advantages, and how you cope psychologically with the stress involved. I managed to become profitable after three months trading manually on a 6.5% commission, I didn't know anything about the markets before and I honestly can't say I worked too hard or very smart until I saw with my own eyes that it can be done and It is relatively simple to make some money but this is only the first step towards becoming a professional. Regarding manual versus automatic trading, I can say that automatic trading helps you a lot on the execution side and manual trading does not require years of experience to become profitable but it depends on your inclinations and it is very possible that you will never succeed either manually or automatic if you don't do the right things. You don't have to lose hope if you have already lost some time without seeing any success, it means that what you are doing is not good and you have to approach things from a different perspective.

So I think the key bit you mention here is the 'small things that give you an advantage', ie.your edge over the crowd.
Take Trader Pat's example from yesterday, so he got in at 2.7 based on weak looking fav2&3, sounds simple but what Trader Pat is not mentioning is those smaller things...those small indications that give him an edge, and he's obviously not going to tell us.
My mistake was adopting that sort of strategy which is what comes across from a lot of Peter's videos as well, just looking at charts and ladders and saying that's weak and drifting, and that, but the fav looks strong, looks like backing activity,
back it!!
I just fail to work out what these small edges are........?

When you say that one selection is weak, what do you classify as weak? Did you measure it? One of the mistakes of novice traders is that they begin to assume things that are not necessarily true and build from the wrong foundation. You don't have to assume, you have to measure everything and then you will know for sure. In trading, numbers and percentages are essential. An edge in trading is when you discover something that happens more often or less often than at random because of other market participants. Tactics are how and in what order you execute something to be as effective as possible.

Exactly, I don't know, but presumably Trader Pat had a measure of weak...

[goat68]

I just fail to work out what these small edges are........?

give it time, what’s your equipment set up?

PC, Windows 10, and BA Professional

[Korattt]

I just fail to work out what these small edges are........?

give it time, what’s your equipment set up?

PC, Windows 10, and BA Professional

maybe invest in a second screen that’ll give you more scope to get more out of the BA software?

[jimibt]

I just fail to work out what these small edges are........?

give it time, what’s your equipment set up?

PC, Windows 10, and BA Professional

if you don't already (and i may have suggested this before), formulate a plan for 2021 that includes:

1. Watching the markets
2. Screen recording of markets
3. Data recording of markets
4. Aligning notes to all of the above

Divorce yourself from trying things in the heat of the moment, focus instead on having a rich data store that you can validate against your perceptions. There is also something to be said for taking raw data and cutting it up in various ways to try to find patterns that are not visible under all the normal market noise. Explore these options also, but mainly focus on assessing your presumptions against what happened in reality. the combo of notes, video and raw data should be adequate for most folk.

[Trader724]

I feel as though I am learning from my experience and mistakes, but just not found what will work in the long run yet.....

Maybe it would be a good idea not to change your plans too often in terms of what you want to do. Maybe it's better to solve one problem at a time, but obviously start with what you find to be easier. Use minimum stakes because trading with more than minimum when you don't have an edge it's just stupid.

[jimibt]

I feel as though I am learning from my experience and mistakes, but just not found what will work in the long run yet.....

Maybe it would be a good idea not to change your plans too often in terms of what you want to do. Maybe it's better to solve one problem at a time, but obviously start with what you find to be easier. Use minimum stakes because trading with more than minimum when you don't have an edge it's just stupid.

yeah, i think that was what i alluded to in my note previously -basically, don't flit around, instead look to form some sort of foundational apporach that can be validated and (hopefully) improved upon.

[puntinrolls]

give it time, what’s your equipment set up?

PC, Windows 10, and BA Professional

3. Data recording of markets

Could you elaborate on this a little further please? Are we talking about simple note taking or something else?

[jimibt]

PC, Windows 10, and BA Professional

3. Data recording of markets

Could you elaborate on this a little further please? Are we talking about simple note taking or something else?

simple note taking is an additional required option (to reflect what you were thinking at the time). this item is related to the recording of price data via either rules saving to file in BA or using an api account programatically. obviously, on this forum, the former is more easily accessible.

[goat68]

give it time, what’s your equipment set up?

PC, Windows 10, and BA Professional

if you don't already (and i may have suggested this before), formulate a plan for 2021 that includes:

1. Watching the markets
2. Screen recording of markets
3. Data recording of markets
4. Aligning notes to all of the above

Divorce yourself from trying things in the heat of the moment, focus instead on having a rich data store that you can validate against your perceptions. There is also something to be said for taking raw data and cutting it up in various ways to try to find patterns that are not visible under all the normal market noise. Explore these options also, but mainly focus on assessing your presumptions against what happened in reality. the combo of notes, video and raw data should be adequate for most folk.

So I've started looking at Automation, my first idea is basically what you mention here, data recording and finding patterns and validation for models. I also feel more in my 'zone' with guardian, which I like.
I hope this will be more structured and thus stop my flipping around......
Thanks

[Trader724]

PC, Windows 10, and BA Professional

3. Data recording of markets

Could you elaborate on this a little further please? Are we talking about simple note taking or something else?

Put your results on an excel spreadsheet trying to mention as many variables as possible then after a considerable number of trades filter the results by variables and the totals will be permanently growing. Limit your trades to those and you'll be profitable.

[jamesg46]

I'm sure goat has his own thread, how has managed to turn todays racing into a self help therapy session