Credibility

[The Silk Run]

That's kool Alex, creative. Do one for me darling

[Derek27]

I suggest you don't insert your own bias/meaning/facts into other statements just to suit yourself. Clearly you don't know what I have been working for 3 years on and someone would have to be a moron to take three years to figure something that could be found in one minute flat and its pretty easy to figure that out. As for your definition of "efficient"......I'm curious to know if your research on efficiency took one minute as well

Thank you for your suggestion.

james, (don't want this to come over as patronising - but) i applaud you for not taking the bait on the above comment. moving on is the new not letting go

Reminds me of Edwina Curry's radio show when a caller suggested (very seriously) it's time to unleash our nuclear arsenal on Afghanistan, to which she replied, "Let's leave that in the air".

[Morbius]

I suggest you don't insert your own bias/meaning/facts into other statements just to suit yourself. Clearly you don't know what I have been working for 3 years on and someone would have to be a moron to take three years to figure something that could be found in one minute flat and its pretty easy to figure that out. As for your definition of "efficient"......I'm curious to know if your research on efficiency took one minute as well

Thank you for your suggestion.

james, (don't want this to come over as patronising - but) i applaud you for not taking the bait on the above comment. moving on is the new not letting go

I don't "bait" anybody pal, if you knew me or took the time to read the 180 odd posts since I came on looking for help then you would see otherwise. I ask things and give opinions and I leave the "baiting" to people who are either bored or trouble making and there's a few on here that fit that category and it sure as hell didn't take me 3 years to figure that out either. If I feel someone is "coming after me" then I will do the exact same on a forum as I do in real life, defend my position and aggressively if need be. I'm sure grown men can stick up for themselves unless of course its YOU that's doing the baiting!!!!

[Morbius]

To pull it back on topic, wanted to say this properly earlier but didn't find the time and later forgot...

Obviously, credibility is an invaluable currency if you decide to lead a public life, but to a private person it's worth as much as monopoly money. It's a fragile thing too, it's something that you can spend a lifetime building and then potentially lose it in a single day, so careful what you wish for.

Why desire credibility if that means giving up precious anonymity and accepting all the costs without gaining any extra benefits, it seems poor value with incredible diminishing returns. Credibility can arguably only come from one place anyway, the rest would just be good marketing, but naturally not everyone is foolish enough to confuse visibility for credibility, like they tend to do on social media and other platforms. I'm not trying to take easy potshots at anyone out there in particular, as entertaining as that would be, I'm just expressing my opinion for the sake of the discussion.

To be fair, I barely even acknowledge P&L's in general since any cretin out there can seemingly pick out a decent one to showcase, and even when genuine they can rarely even quantify where it came from and how they managed to produce it, so I pay far more attention to what people say and how they say it, since conveying subtle nuances and the underlying context behind the markets is a different matter entirely.

Since we're on this topic, what worries me on a personal level is that if I ever get overzealous again in my pursuit of credit, when I get to the next plateau, like I probably was during my first year if I'm being honest with myself, that the credibility (past results, keyword being "past") will only encourage me to rest on my laurels and it might stop my progress dead in its tracks, which is the very last thing I would want to happen. This would mean that the knowledge (potential future results, keyword being "future") that I have would then be wasted. So if it's ultimately a choice between "past" and "future" then my choice should be easy enough. Barring any future business ventures that require transparency I don't really see much else changing my mind.

On account of my open personality and natural thirst for knowledge I've already had the pleasure of meeting a few people that could put most other top traders to shame, like most people have I'm sure, and they are more than happy to remain private people, it's their advice that I probably value the most, which is along the lines of "less talk, more work". I hope this doesn't come as a shocker to many but you don't need to tell much to an experienced trader at all, the fact that you even exist in a market should already be more than enough information. In other words, if somebody tells you that a treasure chest is buried somewhere in your backyard you're going to find that chest based off this information alone, since you already have all the necessary tools at your disposal.

I did enjoy getting in all sorts of trading discussion in the past, or tried to at least, but even for the knowledge alone, that I used to fuel my arguments, I can't take any credit for it even if I wanted to. Most of it is just borrowed work of other traders, things I picked up and learned along the way from practically everyone. Nobody is that clever to find all the missing pieces himself and do all the legwork himself fresh off the boat, this would take decades.

Whether I'll start properly utilizing some of the accrued knowledge and get tired of being an average trader, or whether I'll seek more attractive opportunities outside of betting exchanges, it doesn't really matter since I'm fairly confident in my ability to stick to my principles no matter where the journey takes me. In my opinion, as long as you and the important people around you are happy with your work then that source of self-fulfillment should last you a lifetime.

And at this point I'm not even sure whether these principles are my own, or whether I borrowed them from the great investors and speculators out there, but don't much care anymore

You're too good for this forum Kai I'm surprised people don't come after you for your long posts

Seriously though, good stuff but there are only two things "wrong" with that post. The first is your definition of "average" and the second is the bit where you said about principles not being your own. We've had many discussions over the past few months and we both know they sometimes got heated but hey, grown men sometimes disagree on things they feel passionate about. Trading for me is almost all psychology but a strong psychology is a derivative of something far more powerful. The knowledge and utter belief in your methods based on knowing the why and seeing the results. Edges are everywhere. its the execution part that's the hard bit but the execution comes with the correct knowledge and mindset stemming from that. And we all stand on the shoulders of "geniuses" and stuff that's gone before. There's very little innovative stuff out there. Trading for me is a bit like watching movies, it's rare to see anything new and its nearly all variations on variations that have been seen before. Told you before, you can call yourself "average" all you like but we all know your depth of thinking is far above that

[jimibt]

Thank you for your suggestion.

james, (don't want this to come over as patronising - but) i applaud you for not taking the bait on the above comment. moving on is the new not letting go

I don't "bait" anybody pal, if you knew me or took the time to read the 180 odd posts since I came on looking for help then you would see otherwise. I ask things and give opinions and I leave the "baiting" to people who are either bored or trouble making and there's a few on here that fit that category and it sure as hell didn't take me 3 years to figure that out either. If I feel someone is "coming after me" then I will do the exact same on a forum as I do in real life, defend my position and aggressively if need be. I'm sure grown men can stick up for themselves unless of course its YOU that's doing the baiting!!!!

ok, i take your point .. i didn't read any of your previuos posts (to research context before firing off an ad-lib), so am dissadvanteged in that respect.

if i came (come) across in a way that offends you, then my apologies!

[ShaunWhite]

I'm not a fan of this credible certificate idea

I only started this thread as I didn't want to clog up another thread with a reply. And the whole trade guild /certificate thing was a joke, a way to make a few hundred quid from the sort of people who pay phoney professional bodies to get a sticker. What is it with innocuous threads suddenly racking up 20+pages?

[gazuty]

I'm not a fan of this credible certificate idea

I only started this thread as I didn't want to clog up another thread with a reply. And the whole trade guild /certificate thing was a joke, a way to make a few hundred quid from the sort of people who pay phoney professional bodies to get a sticker. What is it with innocuous threads suddenly racking up 20+pages?

Many a true word is said in jest.

You hit on an important and interesting topic Shaun that people clearly want to talk about. More power to you.

[gazuty]

To pull it back on topic, wanted to say this properly earlier but didn't find the time and later forgot...

Obviously, credibility is an invaluable currency

.....

Awesome post Kai.

Once I am let out of the gilded cage that is Australia I’ll make every effort to visit Croatia.

[wearthefoxhat]

I'm not a fan of this credible certificate idea

I only started this thread as I didn't want to clog up another thread with a reply. And the whole trade guild /certificate thing was a joke, a way to make a few hundred quid from the sort of people who pay phoney professional bodies to get a sticker. What is it with innocuous threads suddenly racking up 20+pages?

Have you heard the story of Dogecoin in the crypto space.

Only started as a joke....

[Morbius]

james, (don't want this to come over as patronising - but) i applaud you for not taking the bait on the above comment. moving on is the new not letting go

I don't "bait" anybody pal, if you knew me or took the time to read the 180 odd posts since I came on looking for help then you would see otherwise. I ask things and give opinions and I leave the "baiting" to people who are either bored or trouble making and there's a few on here that fit that category and it sure as hell didn't take me 3 years to figure that out either. If I feel someone is "coming after me" then I will do the exact same on a forum as I do in real life, defend my position and aggressively if need be. I'm sure grown men can stick up for themselves unless of course its YOU that's doing the baiting!!!!

ok, i take your point .. i didn't read any of your previuos posts (to research context before firing off an ad-lib), so am dissadvanteged in that respect.

if i came (come) across in a way that offends you, then my apologies!

Well there's nothing to say to that fella except apology accepted and well done for acting like a gentleman and a man, we all have our off days don't we....line drawn under!!!!!!

[Euler]

I don't really know what the solution is, but having seen the structure of the market and how accounts are distributed I think there should be more accountability and visibility, somehow. I'm sort of bound to say that though, as I have nothing to hide. But I'd imagine others would be terrified of the thought.

It's also double-sided. Can you validate something that is genuine, but also you should expose stuff that isn't? How would you do either with compromise. So any solution would have to address both ends of that. I'm not sure you would get Betfair's buy in to any solution as it would show that they have actively promoted people who have, lets say, less than impressive track records. So it's a tricky one.

I'm not sure there would ever be a consensus as you don't want to encourage people to gamble by seducing them with some meaty profits. But by the same measure, it would be helpful to have some measure of credibility.

[Morbius]

I don't really know what the solution is, but having seen the structure of the market and how accounts are distributed I think there should be more accountability and visibility, somehow. I'm sort of bound to say that though, as I have nothing to hide. But I'd imagine others would be terrified of the thought.

It's also double-sided. Can you validate something that is genuine, but also you should expose stuff that isn't? How would you do either with compromise. So any solution would have to address both ends of that. I'm not sure you would get Betfair's buy in to any solution as it would show that they have actively promoted people who have, lets say, less than impressive track records. So it's a tricky one.

I'm not sure there would ever be a consensus as you don't want to encourage people to gamble by seducing them with some meaty profits. But by the same measure, it would be helpful to have some measure of credibility.

I would imagine for someone with your experience Peter to not know what the solution is would suggest to me that it is highly likely that there isn't one and that's the line I'm taking. I just don't see how certain people can have their hands held all the time because once they leave the forum then they are on their own in the big wide world of the internet anyway. People should be left to their own devices to decide what is useful from what isn't IMO and as I said in another post, there are some really smart non-winners in trading who have been down roads and failed that others would find extremely educational. I just don't think it works to put something so rigid onto something much more complex

[megarain]

I haven't read the whole thread - so excuse me if this has been said before.

I just feel new blood needs to know who 'might' be credible.

I imagine there is more chance of something useful coming from a trader who is paying PC and says he/she has won xxx, than someone who isn't - unless they have a PC evasion scheme that's so good, they don't want to mention it I suppose.

I don't think anyone would have a problem with Dallas and other BA support staff having halos over their forum name or something similar.

[ShaunWhite]

evasion scheme that's so good, they don't want to mention it I suppose.

Evasion or avoidance?

Anyone likely to suceed at trading is going to have to be sharp and need a healthy dose of cynicism and subjectivity, maybe picking who they listen to is their first test. Trading 101 : Due diligence vs assumptions and gullibility.

[Derek27]

I don't think anyone would have a problem with Dallas and other BA support staff having halos over their forum name or something similar.

Reverend CS should get the halo.