Today's Horse Racing
I think trading is taking advantage of opportunities, like monday's backing opportunity..
Which is great for manual traders, less so for bot's, bot's seem to have to work differently to manual trading, ie. capture opportunities that bots can see, but manual traders may not.
Which is great for manual traders, less so for bot's, bot's seem to have to work differently to manual trading, ie. capture opportunities that bots can see, but manual traders may not.
Yes, people like a challenge and most everybody apart from 2% maybe less are long term profitable. There are lots of things humans spend money on that are enjoyable and do not produce a return of money.
I see you question as essentially asking about the way each human has their brain wired. Some people see patterns (a rabbit, an old women) where others see an ink blob smudged across the page. Some people simply cannot do this. Not because they are not smart enough - just becasue their brain is not wired to make money from a betting platform. Those people might have other mega talents - and good on them. Not everyone (by definition in a less than zero sum game after commission!!) is going to be succesful at exchange betting.
Well, when someone with 20+ years experience (from the foundation of Betfair) who has many sucessful strategies (and is clearly an exchange genius) has a hunch about something there is a better chance that the hunch is going to be profitable than when a person who has not had any profitable hunches. And if it is not profitable, there is also a good chance someone like that can figure out why and nudge it towards profitability.
Most people (in my view) don't experiement, write down in a journal/blog etc what happened, think about it, tweak, write down in a journal/blog etc what happened, think about it, tweak, write down in a journal/blog etc what happened, think about it, tweak, write down in a journal/blog etc what happened, think about it, tweak, write down in a journal/blog etc what happened, think about it, tweak, write down in a journal/blog etc what happened, think about it, tweak ..... it ain't that hard. For many people (in my view) after a couple of day's their monkey brain (i've got a monkey brain too) reverts to "this is all too hard, where is the easy money". Witness the 90 day challenges etc, that fizzle out. A little bit of discipline, planning, recording, reflection, asking why? thinking about what happened etc. Sometimes the exact opposite of an initial strategy can be sucessful.
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wearthefoxhat
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It could be more like a chicken/egg scenario.
Find a market/selection - - - Use an appropriate bot.
Use a bot - - - Find an appropriate market/selection.
I would tend to favour the first one as I like to find a runner that has the attributes to run a big race. I would then have an expectation, based on my findings, on how it will run. If it runs well, the trade reflects that (maybe a let it ride opportunity). It it's running poorly, or one of the dangers are running well, take an early loss. Conversely, if I expect a runner to run a poor race...etc
So BetAngel is enforcing a decision coming up, i'm going to collect data for the next 7 days, i'll then have about 2 weeks of data. I won't use BA then until I can see something useful to forward test from my data, because as it stands i'm just wasting money...and as you wisely say above maybe my brain is not wired for this sort of thing. I'm far from stupid, I have a very good degree background, a lot of experience in programming, but most likely a brain that isn't wired for this. Anyway, i'm going to have a couple of Gb of data to play with that won't cost me money down the drain...!
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wearthefoxhat
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Don't forget, there's always the 99p option for a daily licence. Just dip in and dip out when you feel you need to try something out.goat68 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 28, 2021 7:40 amSo BetAngel is enforcing a decision coming up, i'm going to collect data for the next 7 days, i'll then have about 2 weeks of data. I won't use BA then until I can see something useful to forward test from my data, because as it stands i'm just wasting money...and as you wisely say above maybe my brain is not wired for this sort of thing. I'm far from stupid, I have a very good degree background, a lot of experience in programming, but most likely a brain that isn't wired for this. Anyway, i'm going to have a couple of Gb of data to play with that won't cost me money down the drain...!
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It took me 2 passes before I figured out I wasn't looping over the same line.gazuty wrote: ↑Sun Feb 28, 2021 2:38 amI see you question as essentially asking about the way each human has their brain wired. Some people see patterns (a rabbit, an old women) where others see an ink blob smudged across the page. Some people simply cannot do this. Not because they are not smart enough - just becasue their brain is not wired to make money from a betting platform. Those people might have other mega talents - and good on them. Not everyone (by definition in a less than zero sum game after commission!!) is going to be succesful at exchange betting.
Well, when someone with 20+ years experience (from the foundation of Betfair) who has many sucessful strategies (and is clearly an exchange genius) has a hunch about something there is a better chance that the hunch is going to be profitable than when a person who has not had any profitable hunches. And if it is not profitable, there is also a good chance someone like that can figure out why and nudge it towards profitability.
Most people (in my view) don't experiement, write down in a journal/blog etc what happened, think about it, tweak, write down in a journal/blog etc what happened, think about it, tweak, write down in a journal/blog etc what happened, think about it, tweak, write down in a journal/blog etc what happened, think about it, tweak, write down in a journal/blog etc what happened, think about it, tweak, write down in a journal/blog etc what happened, think about it, tweak ..... it ain't that hard. For many people (in my view) after a couple of day's their monkey brain (i've got a monkey brain too) reverts to "this is all too hard, where is the easy money". Witness the 90 day challenges etc, that fizzle out. A little bit of discipline, planning, recording, reflection, asking why? thinking about what happened etc. Sometimes the exact opposite of an initial strategy can be sucessful.
This reminds me some people's life cycle... as soon as some kids are toddlers they're plugged into watching cartoons, slowly evolution brings around movies and reality TV. Add a sprinkle of social media to the recipe and a lot of people spend their time watching others instead of themselves. Blogging, Vlogging etc is a good way of documenting our own life journey and re-watching ourselves gives us the privilege of writing future script.
Hi Goat, I'm glad you're still here and I've been reading your automation exploits over the last few weeks/months. I used the word luck in the sense of hoping that the markets today might be a bit more amenable to trading today cf. yesterday. Clearly, successful traders haven't been lucky for that length of time! I suppose, if you think that there is a certain 'brain-type' that suits trading, then you can be lucky enough to be born with one, but that is probably a discussion for another thread.
One thing I wanted to ask, I take it you are keeping records of your wins and losses by race type? It might help you if you are having more/greater losses on certain races rather than others, and you could then filter them out. I started doing this recently, keeping more detailed stats (I say detailed, just charts of S/R by race type/course/day of the week, that sort of thing - and I know that S/R on its own is too simplistic a metric), and it's been really helpful to me to see which race types I'm better at than others (based on a small sample size admitedly). I'm sure you could do something similar with your automation, if you are not already - it may be useful.
Regards, and good 'luck' today if your bot is on duty!
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Trader Pat
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gazuty wrote: ↑Sun Feb 28, 2021 2:38 amMost people (in my view) don't experiement, write down in a journal/blog etc what happened, think about it, tweak, write down in a journal/blog etc what happened, think about it, tweak, write down in a journal/blog etc what happened, think about it, tweak, write down in a journal/blog etc what happened, think about it, tweak, write down in a journal/blog etc what happened, think about it, tweak, write down in a journal/blog etc what happened, think about it, tweak ..... it ain't that hard. For many people (in my view) after a couple of day's their monkey brain (i've got a monkey brain too) reverts to "this is all too hard, where is the easy money". Witness the 90 day challenges etc, that fizzle out. A little bit of discipline, planning, recording, reflection, asking why? thinking about what happened etc. Sometimes the exact opposite of an initial strategy can be sucessful.
A lot of wise words and truth there.
New traders consistently underestimate the effort and time required to get a handle on the markets. Its amazing to me how many people ignore simple and good advice and then months later complain that they don't get it. The simple act of recording and actually watching the markets is massively underrated.
Also attitude is key. Throwing the toys out of the pram because you don't get it obviously isn't going to help, its important to be humble enough to realise it will take time and honest enough to accept the fact that you may never get there.
I like your thinking, yes didn't realise thatwearthefoxhat wrote: ↑Sun Feb 28, 2021 9:11 amDon't forget, there's always the 99p option for a daily licence. Just dip in and dip out when you feel you need to try something out.goat68 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 28, 2021 7:40 amSo BetAngel is enforcing a decision coming up, i'm going to collect data for the next 7 days, i'll then have about 2 weeks of data. I won't use BA then until I can see something useful to forward test from my data, because as it stands i'm just wasting money...and as you wisely say above maybe my brain is not wired for this sort of thing. I'm far from stupid, I have a very good degree background, a lot of experience in programming, but most likely a brain that isn't wired for this. Anyway, i'm going to have a couple of Gb of data to play with that won't cost me money down the drain...!
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Hi, yes I do have logs by race market name, i analyse that end of day typically, but don't find any correlation for the losses, hence my question the other day on this... however I think i might revisit based on different categorization based on what Peter and others said.Maturin wrote: ↑Sun Feb 28, 2021 9:59 amHi Goat, I'm glad you're still here and I've been reading your automation exploits over the last few weeks/months. I used the word luck in the sense of hoping that the markets today might be a bit more amenable to trading today cf. yesterday. Clearly, successful traders haven't been lucky for that length of time! I suppose, if you think that there is a certain 'brain-type' that suits trading, then you can be lucky enough to be born with one, but that is probably a discussion for another thread.
One thing I wanted to ask, I take it you are keeping records of your wins and losses by race type? It might help you if you are having more/greater losses on certain races rather than others, and you could then filter them out. I started doing this recently, keeping more detailed stats (I say detailed, just charts of S/R by race type/course/day of the week, that sort of thing - and I know that S/R on its own is too simplistic a metric), and it's been really helpful to me to see which race types I'm better at than others (based on a small sample size admitedly). I'm sure you could do something similar with your automation, if you are not already - it may be useful.
Regards, and good 'luck' today if your bot is on duty!
One thing I would say though, is is race type less important bot type trading vs manual? You will notice on Peter's new bot results yesterday it looks like it was trading every market...