Cheltenham 2017

[Naffman]

UDS and Let's Dance hammered now.

[HRacing]

Un De Sceaux's price spiked on the run in

[Jukebox]

York Hill was a good trade, mullins duck broken

We think so much about the psychology of the trader and overcoming natural human tendencies - we don't think too much though about the psychology of the punter who isn't trying to overcome them. Douvan was a big blow - how did they react?

[Stats101]

The price on Un De Sceaux has shortened so much. Surely an over-reaction?

[Euler]

The price on Un De Sceaux has shortened so much. Surely an over-reaction?

Gone way beyond what I imagined so I'm out.

[Stats101]

I've decided to lay Un De Sceaux at 2.94. Expecting it to be back to 3.05. We shall see...

[Naffman]

Oh wow that is crazy!! 3.4 to 2.86 on UDS and Lets Dance is 2.38 from 2.76

[William89]

The price on Un De Sceaux has shortened so much. Surely an over-reaction?

Gone way beyond what I imagined so I'm out.

Will leave the race alone completely?

[dragontrades]

Is it just me or are these markets completely wild compared to previous years?

[Dallas]

Is it just me or are these markets completely wild compared to previous years?

Generally they have been a bit wilder since 2015

Been a definate change in the last 3yrs

[DoubleDon]

Before the first race the Bet Victor rep on RUK said UDS would go 7/4 if Yorkhill won.
2.78 now, 7/4 with plenty of books.

[Stats101]

UDS still seems short, but lots of uncertainty in the market, so really can't tell which way this one is going to go. Instinctively, I feel like it will drift back out to 3's, but I am leaving it alone now, after trading for a small loss.

[ec0n0mist]

That's some move on Un De Sceaux!

Dallas & Euler; in these instances would you contemplate fading the gaps considering the anaemic volumes between 3.40 - 3.05 and 2.96 - 2.86?
Or do you tend to treat them more as continuation gaps (especially the latter range given that it's narrower) and either ride the waves or stay on the sidelines as these setups portend general coin-flips in your experience?

[HRacing]

Here is something interesting from Betfair, you have just been given a huge steer on a key aspects to upcoming markets.

Accas and Hedging
We’re expecting our Paddy Power Betfair traders to hedge liabilities from the online Sportsbooks and retail estate into the Exchange during the festival. This will be in the form of a series of accumulators for that day’s favourites. Last year we tweeted about the accas to drum up interest to complement our own hedging on the Mullins troupe which helped to match almost £400k.


The days, runners and stakes to be hedged will all be dependent on incoming sportsbook business however we anticipate that we’ll be active in the following combinations: -

Day 3: Yorkhill, Unowhatimeanharry, Lets Dance, Un De Sceaux (trebles and four-folds)
Day 4: Defi Du Seuil, Death Duty, Cue Card, On The Fringe (trebles and four-folds, repeated with Djakadam instead of Cue Card)

They didnt lie

[Naffman]

Ryanair traded well!