Well its currently made the bbc homepage news!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/
But nothing will be done and it will get brushed under the carpet as usual.
As an aside, I have since been in touch with Neil and he said he was cut short in the radio interview as they panicked when he mentioned betfair thinking it was a bookie rather than an exchange.
Stuff to watch
Interesting the virtually none of the bookies would comment.
They basically want mugs who do accumulators. They refer to professional gamblers. All professional gamblers look for value, so most of them are on the exchanges. The bookies are basically looking to stamp down on arbers, as they are single selection punters who put massive pressure on the bookies bottom line
They basically want mugs who do accumulators. They refer to professional gamblers. All professional gamblers look for value, so most of them are on the exchanges. The bookies are basically looking to stamp down on arbers, as they are single selection punters who put massive pressure on the bookies bottom line
-
andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
I have been catching up on this series over the last week and would highly recommend it from a view point of the mind. There are a lot of things in it that can be translated to trading:
SAS: Who dares wins - Channel 4
http://www.channel4.com/programmes/sas-who-dares-wins
SAS: Who dares wins - Channel 4
http://www.channel4.com/programmes/sas-who-dares-wins
tails you win - the science of chance -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p0 ... -of-chance
well worth a watch.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p0 ... -of-chance
well worth a watch.
-
andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
the new film - The big short, based on the Michael Lewis book of the same title.
it's a Hollywood dramatisation based on a true story. I'm sure there were a lot more to it than is covered in the film obviously , but still very interesting to watch.
There are a lot of parallels between that world and the much smaller world we venture into each day..(if you've read the black swan, you'll know what I mean), undervaluing and overvaluing risk in financial terms
tHere were two interesting characters in the who basically went against the market (and wisdom of the crowd), and outlined below in an extract from a web site I just read..maybe we could learn from this??
extract:
Charles Ledley and Jaime Mai
Ledley and Mai were two guys in their early 30s who decided to start their own hedge fund with just over $100,000. They quickly made more than $15 million by betting on financial events that are extremely unlikely to occur — and therefore didn't cost much to bet against.
"They thought that Wall Street underestimated the likelihood of really unlikely events," Lewis says. "So they would buy options to buy stocks at prices far, far away from where the stocks were currently trading. They did this with currencies, they did it with commodities. They scoured the world, essentially looking to make bets on extreme things happening."
Soon, Ledley and Mai stumbled into the subprime mortgage market and realized that they could bet against not only the loans but also the financial institutions themselves.
"They're able to piece together a clear picture of what's going on in a matter of months," Lewis says. "They become less interested in the bet than the social implications of what they're learning. They go to the SEC. They go to The Wall Street Journal. They're screaming at the top of their lungs, 'My God, there's fraud in the system.' "
By betting against subprime mortgages, Ledley and Mai's $15 million investment ballooned to $120 million.
Lewis says the two men — like Dr. Burry — were able to see the failures of the market before the rest of the world did because they viewed the world differently.
"This is the story of human perception as much as it is anything else. And their attitude toward the financial markets was peculiar," Lewis says. "It was peculiar to be running around the world looking for unlikely things that might happen. ... And it told you something about Wall Street and ... the way the markets were functioning when they were dysfunctional. There weren't enough people thinking this way. There weren't enough people taking into account the real likelihood of extreme change in the world."
it's a Hollywood dramatisation based on a true story. I'm sure there were a lot more to it than is covered in the film obviously , but still very interesting to watch.
There are a lot of parallels between that world and the much smaller world we venture into each day..(if you've read the black swan, you'll know what I mean), undervaluing and overvaluing risk in financial terms
tHere were two interesting characters in the who basically went against the market (and wisdom of the crowd), and outlined below in an extract from a web site I just read..maybe we could learn from this??
extract:
Charles Ledley and Jaime Mai
Ledley and Mai were two guys in their early 30s who decided to start their own hedge fund with just over $100,000. They quickly made more than $15 million by betting on financial events that are extremely unlikely to occur — and therefore didn't cost much to bet against.
"They thought that Wall Street underestimated the likelihood of really unlikely events," Lewis says. "So they would buy options to buy stocks at prices far, far away from where the stocks were currently trading. They did this with currencies, they did it with commodities. They scoured the world, essentially looking to make bets on extreme things happening."
Soon, Ledley and Mai stumbled into the subprime mortgage market and realized that they could bet against not only the loans but also the financial institutions themselves.
"They're able to piece together a clear picture of what's going on in a matter of months," Lewis says. "They become less interested in the bet than the social implications of what they're learning. They go to the SEC. They go to The Wall Street Journal. They're screaming at the top of their lungs, 'My God, there's fraud in the system.' "
By betting against subprime mortgages, Ledley and Mai's $15 million investment ballooned to $120 million.
Lewis says the two men — like Dr. Burry — were able to see the failures of the market before the rest of the world did because they viewed the world differently.
"This is the story of human perception as much as it is anything else. And their attitude toward the financial markets was peculiar," Lewis says. "It was peculiar to be running around the world looking for unlikely things that might happen. ... And it told you something about Wall Street and ... the way the markets were functioning when they were dysfunctional. There weren't enough people thinking this way. There weren't enough people taking into account the real likelihood of extreme change in the world."
Back in 2007 I was privileged enough with two other guys to see a presentation that ripped open the CDO market and showed there was a massive problem right upon us.tHere were two interesting characters in the who basically went against the market (and wisdom of the crowd), and outlined below in an extract from a web site I just read..maybe we could learn from this?
I wrote about it in a veiled manner in Shares magazine but the article was softened to make it palatable for the target audience.
The two other guys I was with now run hedge funds! So the lesson I learnt was to act on things rather than observe them! But it was interesting to see it all before it happened. I may still have the presentation somewhere.
-
marksmeets302
- Posts: 527
- Joined: Thu Dec 10, 2009 4:37 pm
Weren't those guys just lucky that the bubble burst soon after they got involved? It could easily have happened one year later, and they would still be right, but also would be wiped out.
Sounds like a gambling problem to me
Sounds like a gambling problem to me
-
steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
Billions may be a new series of interest to a few on here. Haven't tried it myself yet. Also enjoyed Narcos. 
-
andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
Cheers, but it doesn't look like it has been picked up in the UK by anyonesteven1976 wrote:Billions may be a new series of interest to a few on here. Haven't tried it myself yet. Also enjoyed Narcos.
Billions? - Its not about Peter is it!
Not heard of that series (maybe its on netflix or Kodi?)
(Watched the new Revenant Film last night, cracking film. Outstanding performance by Leonardo DiCaprio; If ever you feel like giving up, watch that!)
Not heard of that series (maybe its on netflix or Kodi?)
(Watched the new Revenant Film last night, cracking film. Outstanding performance by Leonardo DiCaprio; If ever you feel like giving up, watch that!)