Today's Horse Racing

[MobiusGrey]

Mad Mike, £30 matched at 250 and it wins, few people seriously out of pocket laying outsiders I reckon

[CloseBets]

Mad Mike, £30 matched at 250 and it wins, few people seriously out of pocket laying outsiders I reckon

On my DB there are 110,812 runners with a BSP of over 250, only £92,077 returned to a £1 stake. Almost 17% ROS, maybe they're not as out of pocket as you imagine.

And to cap it off for the layers the damn thing was disqualified despite winning by 10 lengths

[Euler]

2024-01-24 at 13.37.36.png

[jamesedwards]

Mad Mike, £30 matched at 250 and it wins, few people seriously out of pocket laying outsiders I reckon

On my DB there are 110,812 runners with a BSP of over 250, only £92,077 returned to a £1 stake. Almost 17% ROS, maybe they're not as out of pocket as you imagine.

And to cap it off for the layers the damn thing was disqualified despite winning by 10 lengths

In a perfect exchange market a 99/1 shot represents a 1 in 100 chance of winning, but a 999/1 shot represents a <=1 in 1000 chance of winning because 1000 is the greatest price that can be offered. In theory if you lay everything at 1000 you will make money because you'll be laying plenty that would actually be available at a higher price if the exchange process allowed.

Out of interest, what does your database return for runners with BSP between 250 and 999, and what does it return for just 1000?

[jamesedwards]

And to cap it off for the layers the damn thing was disqualified despite winning by 10 lengths

FPTP only won by a nose. The 10 lengths was 2PTP to 3PTP.

[firlandsfarm]

And to cap it off for the layers the damn thing was disqualified despite winning by 10 lengths

FPTP only won by a nose. The 10 lengths was 2PTP to 3PTP.

Yes, the commentators said it lost the race because the winning margin was so slim.

[Crumpets]

Similar pattern of late aggressive backing at Kempton tonight; the 18.30 I think.

Still not convinced it's a punter. May be a strong value entry, but the behaviour to me suggests a trader. Surely a punter would take more care to drip feed orders? Or allow any opposition to nudge the price up to better odds? This felt like a trader purposefully smashing through his opposition.

I noted the field support looked decent for a steam. Just like the massive move last week.


..And then of course, the price springs back up, way above it's starting point in play; with big lay orders trailing behind. This suggests somebody was in a rush to exit fast in play.

Interested on any thoughts

[Crumpets]

On that note, noticed a lot more positions being taken in play today. Clashy schedule I think has something to do with it, but I'm not sure why...

[weemac]

Betfair sinking to new all times lows 16:10, voiding before the off for no reason.

[CloseBets]

And to cap it off for the layers the damn thing was disqualified despite winning by 10 lengths

FPTP only won by a nose. The 10 lengths was 2PTP to 3PTP.

I didn't actually see the race just saw the Sportinglife results page and they ha the distance at 10 lengths, guess that was the difference between 2nd and 3rd

[CloseBets]

Out of interest, what does your database return for runners with BSP between 250 and 999, and what does it return for just 1000?

85881 runners between 250-999.99 returned 76824.21

26277 runners over 1000* returned 16003 (*Betfair used to put some runners in at 1001 in the data when they manually reconciled races)

[ANGELS15]

Betfair sinking to new all times lows 16:10, voiding before the off for no reason.

Anyone got any ideas what happened in the 4.10 Sandown? I was placing a few trades then suddenly the market was suspended and every horse was flagged as 'non runner'. I assumed they had abandoned the rest of the meeting. I couldn't get access to pictures so was surprised to see in the results that the race was actually run.

As I write this the market is still not settled on betfair. What the **** is going on?

[jamesedwards]

Betfair sinking to new all times lows 16:10, voiding before the off for no reason.

Anyone got any ideas what happened in the 4.10 Sandown? I was placing a few trades then suddenly the market was suspended and every horse was flagged as 'non runner'. I assumed they had abandoned the rest of the meeting. I couldn't get access to pictures so was surprised to see in the results that the race was actually run.

As I write this the market is still not settled on betfair. What the **** is going on?

Huge BF balls up. No idea what they're going to do with this race.

[jamesedwards]

Out of interest, what does your database return for runners with BSP between 250 and 999, and what does it return for just 1000?

85881 runners between 250-999.99 returned 76824.21

26277 runners over 1000* returned 16003 (*Betfair used to put some runners in at 1001 in the data when they manually reconciled races)

Thanks for posting. So a huge profit on laying BSPs at 250+, but the greatest return comes at the very top. You just need the cash-flow, and the balls.

[Euler]

My experience of BSP is that you can't replicate it in the real world.