Coronavirus - A pale horse,4 men and ....beer

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superfrank
Posts: 2762
Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm

Jukebox wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:23 pm
Are the medical opinions of the posters on the BA forum likely to be better than those the government is being advised by?
The government's strategy has differed from that of other countries, the WHO and independent experts so it's valid to question what we're been told imho.

e.g.
WHO appears to criticise UK approach
Margaret Harris, a spokesperson for the World Health Organization, appeared to criticise the UK stance on "herd immunity" this morning.

Asked about the suggestion that if enough people in the UK get the virus the country could develop herd immunity, Dr Harris said:

"We don't know enough about the science of this virus. It hasn't been in our population for long enough for us to know what it does in immunological terms.

"Every virus actually functions differently in your body and stimulates a different immunological profile.

"So we can talk theories but at the moment we're really facing a situation where we have got to look at action.

She also reiterated comments made by the WHO chief Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus yesterday, that Europe is now at the heart of this pandemic:

"We're seeing far too many health workers at the moment being infected and far too many young health workers dying.

"The epicentre as you know has really shifted to Europe so European governments must now be considering how they can ensure that every hospital, every health service has got the capacity, can look after the expected increase in numbers of people."

Dr Harris also said that the WHO did not advise travel restrictions and that widespread testing was the "gold standard".
ricardodeano
Posts: 205
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 2:03 pm

Jukebox wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:23 pm
Are the medical opinions of the posters on the BA forum likely to be better than those the government is being advised by?
As Frank says, it is right people are questioning what the apparent government herd immunity plan is given how new the virus is and how much virologists still have to learn about it.
Jukebox
Posts: 1576
Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:07 pm

ricardodeano wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:45 pm
Jukebox wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:23 pm
Are the medical opinions of the posters on the BA forum likely to be better than those the government is being advised by?
As Frank says, it is right people are questioning what the apparent government herd immunity plan is given how new the virus is and how much virologists still have to learn about it.
I'm seeing statements not questions.
ricardodeano
Posts: 205
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 2:03 pm

Jukebox wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:50 pm
ricardodeano wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:45 pm
Jukebox wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:23 pm
Are the medical opinions of the posters on the BA forum likely to be better than those the government is being advised by?
As Frank says, it is right people are questioning what the apparent government herd immunity plan is given how new the virus is and how much virologists still have to learn about it.
I'm seeing statements not questions.
You can infer questions from the statements given.

However, if I must be explicit, here goes.

Why is our government the government in the world that is looking exploring the possibility of deploying a herd immunity strategy when there are few studies available that suggest individuals develop a long term immunity to the virus in the first place?
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3554
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

superfrank wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:40 pm
Jukebox wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:23 pm
Are the medical opinions of the posters on the BA forum likely to be better than those the government is being advised by?
The government's strategy has differed from that of other countries, the WHO and independent experts so it's valid to question what we're been told imho.

e.g.
WHO appears to criticise UK approach
Margaret Harris, a spokesperson for the World Health Organization, appeared to criticise the UK stance on "herd immunity" this morning.

Asked about the suggestion that if enough people in the UK get the virus the country could develop herd immunity, Dr Harris said:

"We don't know enough about the science of this virus. It hasn't been in our population for long enough for us to know what it does in immunological terms.

"Every virus actually functions differently in your body and stimulates a different immunological profile.

"So we can talk theories but at the moment we're really facing a situation where we have got to look at action.

She also reiterated comments made by the WHO chief Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus yesterday, that Europe is now at the heart of this pandemic:

"We're seeing far too many health workers at the moment being infected and far too many young health workers dying.

"The epicentre as you know has really shifted to Europe so European governments must now be considering how they can ensure that every hospital, every health service has got the capacity, can look after the expected increase in numbers of people."

Dr Harris also said that the WHO did not advise travel restrictions and that widespread testing was the "gold standard".
Apparently, the word health organisation confirmed that the dogs recently held in quarantine cannot contract/spread CV19, so instructed their release. So, just to make it clear....WHO let the dogs out.......
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Derek27
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Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am

ricardodeano wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:57 pm
Why is our government the government in the world that is looking exploring the possibility of deploying a herd immunity strategy when there are few studies available that suggest individuals develop a long term immunity to the virus in the first place?
I've next to zero knowledge on these matters but I believe immunity is common with all viruses, there's no reason to think otherwise. Most viruses are cabable of evolving but the common cold has an exceptionally short cycle. It doesn't surprise me that nobody is worrying that covid-19 will follow the same path.

There is no correct or incorrect approach in the same way as there's no such thing as a correct and incorrect trade. Every government will have its own ideas and individual circumstances, but personally I thought their plan and the idea of herd immunity was quite well explained at the press conference and take the view that if the best medical brains and statisticians available devise with a plan after crunching all the data, we may as well follow it.

I'm not a fan of BJ but at least he had the sense to follow the advice. The poor American's lives are in the hands of Donald [don't worry, it will pass] Trump.
ricardodeano
Posts: 205
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 2:03 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:05 pm
ricardodeano wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:57 pm
Why is our government the government in the world that is looking exploring the possibility of deploying a herd immunity strategy when there are few studies available that suggest individuals develop a long term immunity to the virus in the first place?
Most viruses are cabable of evolving but the common cold has an exceptionally short cycle.
And therein lies the issue I take with this approach. We know next to nothing about this virus to date. How do we know the cycle of covid19 isn't as short or shorter than the common cold? We don't.

If we knew for sure that the plan is effectively a countrywide chicken pox party that would ensure immunity then great but we simply don't know if that's the case yet.
ricardodeano
Posts: 205
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 2:03 pm

Deaths jumped from 11 to 21 since yesterday
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Derek27
Posts: 25159
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ricardodeano wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:15 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:05 pm
ricardodeano wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:57 pm
Why is our government the government in the world that is looking exploring the possibility of deploying a herd immunity strategy when there are few studies available that suggest individuals develop a long term immunity to the virus in the first place?
Most viruses are cabable of evolving but the common cold has an exceptionally short cycle.
And therein lies the issue I take with this approach. We know next to nothing about this virus to date. How do we know the cycle of covid19 isn't as short or shorter than the common cold? We don't.

If we knew for sure that the plan is effectively a countrywide chicken pox party that would ensure immunity then great but we simply don't know if that's the case yet.
You're a glass half empty man. ;) We don't, and never will know if an asteroid is on an imminent collision course with the Earth, but until we have reason to believe there is, it's not worth worrying about, otherwise we'd just worry about everything that's not going to happen. In legal terms it's burden of proof, what you should assume when you don't know the answer.

What the experts are saying is that it's far too late to actually stop the virus from getting hold, a large percentage will catch it, so herd immunity isn't the risk it sounds like. It's more about controlling the speed and proportion of the spread.
ricardodeano
Posts: 205
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 2:03 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:28 pm
ricardodeano wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:15 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:05 pm

Most viruses are cabable of evolving but the common cold has an exceptionally short cycle.
And therein lies the issue I take with this approach. We know next to nothing about this virus to date. How do we know the cycle of covid19 isn't as short or shorter than the common cold? We don't.

If we knew for sure that the plan is effectively a countrywide chicken pox party that would ensure immunity then great but we simply don't know if that's the case yet.
You're a glass half empty man. ;) We don't, and never will know if an asteroid is on an imminent collision course with the Earth, but until we have reason to believe there is, it's not worth worrying about, otherwise we'd just worry about everything that's not going to happen. In legal terms it's burden of proof, what you should assume when you don't know the answer.

What the experts are saying is that it's far too late to actually stop the virus from getting hold, a large percentage will catch it, so herd immunity isn't the risk it sounds like. It's more about controlling the speed and proportion of the spread.
Hang on? There's an asteroid coming?! 🙄
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Euler
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I was one day on my early estimate of reaching 1k diagnosed. But it looks like an exponential curve to me. Which means we could be at 10k in 10 days time.
jamesg46
Posts: 3771
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

My partner messaged a family across the road from us who live next to an elderly lady only to find out that her husband is in isolation since Wednesday, we speak to them pretty often & have only just found out... the true numbers are probably far higher than we could imagine.
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Naffman
Posts: 5911
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

jamesg46 wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 3:32 pm
My partner messaged a family across the road from us who live next to an elderly lady only to find out that her husband is in isolation since Wednesday, we speak to them pretty often & have only just found out... the true numbers are probably far higher than we could imagine.
Yes those with even a cough are told to keep inside and not to call 111 so the true numbers will never be known
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PDC
Posts: 2272
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2016 5:52 pm

jamesg46 wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 3:32 pm
... the true numbers are probably far higher than we could imagine.
On Thursday (I think it was) at the Press Conference they said the real number was more likely to be about 10,000 in the UK so you can roughly work out the numbers based on that and the increases in the confirmed test results.

I don't really see what being tested achieves now, seems a bit pointless unless you are actually in hospital or in such a bad state you need to go in.

Other than those people we should just follow the guidance of self isolation. Knowing you actually have it doesn't really benefit anyone unless I am missing something.

I posted similar several days ago.
jamesg46
Posts: 3771
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

PDC wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 3:59 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 3:32 pm
... the true numbers are probably far higher than we could imagine.
On Thursday (I think it was) at the Press Conference they said the real number was more likely to be about 10,000 in the UK so you can roughly work out the numbers based on that and the increases in the confirmed test results.

I don't really see what being tested achieves now, seems a bit pointless unless you are actually in hospital or in such a bad state you need to go in.

Other than those people we should just follow the guidance of self isolation. Knowing you actually have it doesn't really benefit anyone unless I am missing something.

I posted similar several days ago.
I agree, either I do or dont get it & it's more likely I will but either way there is no vaccine so I dont care. If I'm Ill which I'm starting to feel a little shitty & my son is also coughing all around the house then I'm just gonna take it as I've caught something and I'll do what I can - which is to isolate and get on with it.
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