UK General Election 2024 (or 25)

[jimibt]

meanwhile, back on The Forum!!

Is it worth me sifting back through what went before? I suspect not. I really wish the combined intelligence of this forum would join and produce something more than squabbling.

I think the Forum needs to decide if it wants to have politically related threads. I appreciate this and the USA Election threads were started with the intention of discussing trading issues but the trouble is someone makes a comment that XYZ can be criticised for something, another disputes the criticism and before you know it you are in a political exchange and not a trading one!

i just think we ALL need to grow up a bit and bite our tongues and allow things to stay on track.

if i were a new visitor to the forum or was thinking about subscribing to the software, i'd certainly think twice if i were reading the forum and didn't get a sense that the senior/experienced members were taking the trading part seriously. i'd maybe further (wildly) deduce that the software must be pretty crap if the main participants did little more than hang around and bicker, rather than discuss strategies, daily trades, money management, emerging trends etc.

let's see how things progress from here. 2 weeks ago, it all seemed like things would start to become a little more professional (as it had been 2-3 years ago), then, the discipline once more slipped!! (sad face emoji)

[Derek27]

I thought we'd be back on track discussing the election now, but now it's the forum!

(Don't forget the This Forum thread).

[greenmark]

Is it worth me sifting back through what went before? I suspect not. I really wish the combined intelligence of this forum would join and produce something more than squabbling.

I think the Forum needs to decide if it wants to have politically related threads. I appreciate this and the USA Election threads were started with the intention of discussing trading issues but the trouble is someone makes a comment that XYZ can be criticised for something, another disputes the criticism and before you know it you are in a political exchange and not a trading one!

i just think we ALL need to grow up a bit and bite our tongues and allow things to stay on track.

if i were a new visitor to the forum or was thinking about subscribing to the software, i'd certainly think twice if i were reading the forum and didn't get a sense that the senior/experienced members were taking the trading part seriously. i'd maybe further (wildly) deduce that the software must be pretty crap if the main participants did little more than hang around and bicker, rather than discuss strategies, daily trades, money management, emerging trends etc.

let's see how things progress from here. 2 weeks ago, it all seemed like things would start to become a little more professional (as it had been 2-3 years ago), then, the discipline once more slipped!! (sad face emoji)

+1 and please keep contributing and don't get the huff and abandon this forum. We need people like you here.
I seem to remember a few years ago when I joined that forum was self-moderating.
People asking for a winning strategy or refusing to do the background work having been given pointers by more experienced forumites where rightly given short shrift.
People going off thread were also hit waspishly by this commuinty.
It's all got a bit blurred, every thread seems fair game for a row and I think if we don't "grow up" as you say, it could push all of the best contributors away. That would be a disaster.

[Derek27]

James Cleverclogs says Rwanda isn't the be all and end all of migration policy. Perhaps the start of a slow climbdown to what everybody knows is a disastrous policy.

An unnamed Conservative backbencher is furious and claims a U-turn would be damaging to the party. Talk about putting the party before the country!

[greenmark]

James Cleverclogs says Rwanda isn't the be all and end all of migration policy. Perhaps the start of a slow climbdown to what everybody knows is a disastrous policy.

An unnamed Conservative backbencher is furious and claims a U-turn would be damaging to the party. Talk about putting the party before the country!

Cleverly's (The Home Secretary of the UK) apology for using "unparliamentary language" towards an elected MP has made not a jot of difference to the odds of Labour winning a majority at the next GE.
One of the most senior cabinet ministers apologising for insulting an elected MP.
Most people clearly don''t give two hoots.

[Derek27]

Whenever I hear somebody say, "thanks to this Conservative government", I completely forget a compliment could follow.

[The Silk Run]

Whenever I hear somebody say, "thanks to this Conservative government", I completely forget a compliment could follow.

I am absolutely bored of British politics. I actually get all the low-down on this topic, and not mainstream media.

Although I do enjoy Al Jazeera from time to time but that is owned by the Qatar Royal Family of which you all would have guessed by now "I'm NOT a big supporter of !!!!

[jamesedwards]

I am absolutely bored of British politics.

I know a man who is totally and utterly obsessed by it

[Derek27]

I am absolutely bored of British politics.

I know a man who is totally and utterly obsessed by it

What's your favourite comedy then?

[sionascaig]

So labour is currently 1.16 to win next general election, with the next election 6 to 12ish months away...

I wonder how much in this price reflects the odds on labour winning v's the opportunity cost lost by tying money up in the market?

If the later item is significant a spike downwards could be likely if an election is called early (unless of course its already in the price, in which case the price should drift!).

[Archery1969]

So labour is currently 1.16 to win next general election, with the next election 6 to 12ish months away...

I wonder how much in this price reflects the odds on labour winning v's the opportunity cost lost by tying money up in the market?

If the later item is significant a spike downwards could be likely if an election is called early (unless of course its already in the price, in which case the price should drift!).

I highly doubt there will be a general election before April next year. The conservative plan is to cut income tax by 2p and raise the threshold to £15,000. If it works all good for them if not it will leave Labour in a dreadful place when they take over as they will need to raise allot of taxes from somewhere. Labour has now confirmed they cannot honour the £28 billion they expected to invest in green industry jobs.

[greenmark]

So labour is currently 1.16 to win next general election, with the next election 6 to 12ish months away...

I wonder how much in this price reflects the odds on labour winning v's the opportunity cost lost by tying money up in the market?

If the later item is significant a spike downwards could be likely if an election is called early (unless of course its already in the price, in which case the price should drift!).

Winning the most seats isn't the same as a majority.
That's still at 1.36 for Labour and hasn't been budged for a while. But I guess as the campaigns kick it could all be turned on it's head when someone makes a gaffe.

[Derek27]

So labour is currently 1.16 to win next general election, with the next election 6 to 12ish months away...

I wonder how much in this price reflects the odds on labour winning v's the opportunity cost lost by tying money up in the market?

If the later item is significant a spike downwards could be likely if an election is called early (unless of course its already in the price, in which case the price should drift!).

Winning the most seats isn't the same as a majority.
That's still at 1.36 for Labour and hasn't been budged for a while. But I guess as the campaigns kick it could all be turned on it's head when someone makes a gaffe.

Elections used to be about who puts forward the most convincing arguments, now it's all about who makes the least bloomers.

[firlandsfarm]

Labour has now confirmed they cannot honour the £28 billion they expected to invest in green industry jobs.

What a surprise!! Same old Labour, always lying!

You will need a tick sheet to countdown the broken promises between now and the election!

[greenmark]

So labour is currently 1.16 to win next general election, with the next election 6 to 12ish months away...

I wonder how much in this price reflects the odds on labour winning v's the opportunity cost lost by tying money up in the market?

If the later item is significant a spike downwards could be likely if an election is called early (unless of course its already in the price, in which case the price should drift!).

Winning the most seats isn't the same as a majority.
That's still at 1.36 for Labour and hasn't been budged for a while. But I guess as the campaigns kick it could all be turned on it's head when someone makes a gaffe.

Elections used to be about who puts forward the most convincing arguments, now it's all about who makes the least bloomers.

But the market is taking no notice of the noise at the moment. It's like everyone has gone to sleep.
I don't understand the way markets move.
It may well be we're too far out from the main event for anyone to change their opinion yet.
I really did expect the Labour revolt over Starmer's stance on an Israeli ceasefire to have some impact. But there was absolutely no effect.
The market seems like a sleeping wolf waiting for some major political event.