Trading What I see !?

[decomez6]

The cleverest take money from everybody. Everybody takes money from the most stupid.

we need some skills......

" some animals are more equal than others"

may the best win.gif

[wearthefoxhat]

vwap everyone knows about...
One of the quant guys told me you've got to find something not everyone knows about or does, and he said that is very difficult... plain vwap won't be that...

I've turned my dog and ukhorse bot back on, they've all I can think of that are unique at the moment....

FYI all automated trading is quant trading and there's no such thing as plain vwap.

So if you've turned them back on have you done all the suggested analysis on the results so far, made the necessary adjustments and retested everything? Running a loser just because it's all you've got seems like you just like gambling more than winning.

If you were to ask for my advice now I'd say you should take that £268 out of your account before we do.

So it's a fight against other traders to take their money... so I need to take their money when they're in the wrong side?
So for example, WoM, assuming i'm going to hedge at the off, what can WoM really tell me about value? The fact that £5000 more is sitting wanting to be backed just above the current price, doesn't indicate which way the price is going to go, in fact probably means on average it will go the other way, ie.drift..?
That's what I don't get, I can't see how any of these technicals can help? I can understand how fundamentals may do...?

Can your automation take spoofing into account?

[ShaunWhite]

We're not taking money from stupid people we're taking it from people who just fancy a bet and know damn well a percent or two makes f-all difference to their lives. When you spend 247 amongst pro gamblers you can easily forget the rest of the world sees gambling as a bit of entertainment.

Explains why exchanges will always be niche too, only a handful can be bothered to fanny around on an exchange when all they want to do is have an interested, and only a fool would think slightly better odds is all it takes to be a long term winner.

[goat68]

Being playing this afternoon with various WoM at certain price ranges, eg.WoM 80% prices 3.0->3.15, and Lay or Back, tried both, both -EV !
I actually thought logically Back may have something, the theory being Layers have pushed the price out to "value".

It's interesting, I see a theme, I try one setup and say over a month's data it returns -£800, so I think, ah ok lets turn it round Back rather than Lay... it then returns -£100, better but still negative!

[goat68]

It's amazing how anything you try is always -EV, just shows how hard this game is...

[goat68]

I do seem to be back to randomly trying things again.... same old circle!

[goat68]

That's just made me think of something, I could create a Python script that randomly comes up with scenarios, initiates a backtest and repeats endlessly finding the best random strategies. Hopefully by Xmas it may find something

[goat68]

I question, how many of you out there actually make a profit from pure technicals pre-race horses?

[snapperturtle]

I question, how many of you out there actually make a profit from pure technicals pre-race horses?

very hard to make a regular profit, markets can turn against you and wipe a days work in an instant .
i can follow peters to a tee but problem is the markets dont

[goat68]

I question, how many of you out there actually make a profit from pure technicals pre-race horses?

very hard to make a regular profit, markets can turn against you and wipe a days work in an instant .
i can follow peters to a tee but problem is the markets dont

so it would seem, however apparently a few people make truck loads of money from it... !

[snapperturtle]

I question, how many of you out there actually make a profit from pure technicals pre-race horses?

very hard to make a regular profit, markets can turn against you and wipe a days work in an instant .
i can follow peters to a tee but problem is the markets dont

so it would seem, however apparently a few people make truck loads of money from it... !

well so they say, i am sure there are pofitable traders out there , would love to watch a pro trade live, have seen many request it in comments on youtube vids but as yet no trader has

[ShaunWhite]

well so they say, i am sure there are pofitable traders out there , would love to watch a pro trade live, have seen many request it in comments on youtube vids but as yet no trader has

When you know a bit more about it you'll realise plenty of people make decent money. But it's only about 5% of people who try that suceed.

Peter has done loads of live trading on YT, but watching someone do it for an hour or even all day on YouTube is competely pointless and proves nothing. It's not that hard to make money trading for a day, the difficulty is doing it all year.

[arch4672]

I do seem to be back to randomly trying things again.... same old circle!

Did you plot a graph of the vwap difference like Shaun suggested? If not, why not? And if you did, what did you find?

[goat68]

I do seem to be back to randomly trying things again.... same old circle!

Did you plot a graph of the vwap difference like Shaun suggested? If not, why not? And if you did, what did you find?

So it didn't make sense to me at the time, i've just re-read it twice, and it doesn't to me correlate to my aus bot (which is now turned off).
I don't just take 0.94*vwap when it occurs, so plotting 0.94*vwap at -2mins would not be representative of the bot. The PnL is a combination of 1stfav volume and also market overall volume, and vwap. So plotting 0.94*vwap at -2mins is not useful, as it probably hardly ever triggers then.

[arch4672]

But it's not trying to replicate what your bot is doing, it's trying to see if the vwap difference is a useful signal or not.

You say you've got your analysis method sorted out now, so it should be relatively simple to see what would happen if you layed every runner at a certain point in time before the race, logging what the vwap difference was for each runner. It should then be relatively simple to plot it against profit and see if it's a meaningful signal or not.

Or you could just carry on randomly plucking numbers out of the air and hoping for the best.