Trading What I see !?

[goat68]

But it's not trying to replicate what your bot is doing, it's trying to see if the vwap difference is a useful signal or not.

You say you've got your analysis method sorted out now, so it should be relatively simple to see what would happen if you layed every runner at a certain point in time before the race, logging what the vwap difference was for each runner. It should then be relatively simple to plot it against profit and see if it's a meaningful signal or not.

Or you could just carry on randomly plucking numbers out of the air and hoping for the best.

Thanks for explaining, see what you mean doh!
Yes, I can run that, i'll do that tomorrow, cheers

[firlandsfarm]

Peter has done loads of live trading on YT, but watching someone do it for an hour or even all day on YouTube is competely pointless and proves nothing. It's not that hard to make money trading for a day, the difficulty is doing it all year.

Shaun, I think the problem with your first phrase is your penultimate phrase! There are many vids on YT showing successful trades by many contributors but we never know how many shots it took to get the desired profit! I'm not accusing anybody, I'm just wearing an auditor's hat.

[snapperturtle]

well so they say, i am sure there are pofitable traders out there , would love to watch a pro trade live, have seen many request it in comments on youtube vids but as yet no trader has

When you know a bit more about it you'll realise plenty of people make decent money. But it's only about 5% of people who try that suceed.

Peter has done loads of live trading on YT, but watching someone do it for an hour or even all day on YouTube is competely pointless and proves nothing. It's not that hard to make money trading for a day, the difficulty is doing it all year.

yes i have made a profit at times, disagree watching live would be extremely beneficial for myself and i am sure the others that have requested it . it wouldnt be much use for beginners , but i know i would gain alot from just observing . youtube vids are ok but its easy to record 10 races then edit and post the one thsat worked out best .

[decomez6]

well so they say, i am sure there are pofitable traders out there , would love to watch a pro trade live, have seen many request it in comments on youtube vids but as yet no trader has

When you know a bit more about it you'll realise plenty of people make decent money. But it's only about 5% of people who try that suceed.

Peter has done loads of live trading on YT, but watching someone do it for an hour or even all day on YouTube is competely pointless and proves nothing. It's not that hard to make money trading for a day, the difficulty is doing it all year.

yes i have made a profit at times, disagree watching live would be extremely beneficial for myself and i am sure the others that have requested it . it wouldnt be much use for beginners , but i know i would gain alot from just observing . youtube vids are ok but its easy to record 10 races then edit and post the one thsat worked out best .

Traders hunting a swing trade will have to scratch and account for small losses .this can happen many times before a ride on a tidy wave compensate the losses incurred.
Why does one need to show the many times the swing trade stalled and didn’t pick up , when you can easily state the obvious in a footnote ?
Which is ….
“The strategy I am showing you , is profitable in the long term and this is how you successfully implement it “
Then go ahead and show a successful trade accompanied by how to manage gains and a strategical exit.
In my opinion,
How to scratch and exit for a loss is short video, needs not more than a mention .

[goat68]

But it's not trying to replicate what your bot is doing, it's trying to see if the vwap difference is a useful signal or not.

You say you've got your analysis method sorted out now, so it should be relatively simple to see what would happen if you layed every runner at a certain point in time before the race, logging what the vwap difference was for each runner. It should then be relatively simple to plot it against profit and see if it's a meaningful signal or not.

Or you could just carry on randomly plucking numbers out of the air and hoping for the best.

So here we go, ran it overnight on a EC2 spot VM:
27,000 selections
Lay every runner under odds of 15.0 at -2mins

Screenshot 2021-09-20 at 11.04.09.png

So there is a rough correlation, the blue smoothed line shows +EV between 0.86-0.94
Seems my 0.94 guess was fairly a fairly good one!

[decomez6]

-Do you start calculating the vwap @ -2 min or from when the market opened?

-Have you tried other trading windows with a checkpoint option, recalculating the vwap from a certain point and then placing your bets after a certain period of time ?

NB : in competitive handicaps especially the long ones eg >2m f…. You get the price touching the vwap a couple of times IN-play.
So may be you should also include some measurements of only IN-play data given the fact your selections are all below 15.0.. the chances of catching a winner within the sample is quite high.

AND also
You could kill two birds with one stone by incoperating the BSP.
Different trading windows especially if most of the money arrive in the market @-5 mins and there is the correction that happens @-2 mins . a vwap entry with a BSP exit might be of interest.
????

[arch4672]

Is the red line the pnl at each value? Can you plot cumulative pnl instead?

[ShaunWhite]

I do seem to be back to randomly trying things again.... same old circle!

Did you plot a graph of the vwap difference like Shaun suggested? If not, why not? And if you did, what did you find?

So it didn't make sense to me at the time,

Well I'm glad arch4672 got it. If you don't understand goat68 then just say.. I'm not suggesting things for the fun of it and just being blanked starts to feel like a wind up.

[ShaunWhite]

Is the red line the pnl at each value? Can you plot cumulative pnl instead?

+1.
Suggesting cummulative pl is just trying to keep it really simple so if you (goat) know a "better" way then save it for now and just do the commutative pl for now. I hope it goes without saying you'd be looking for parts of the chart with a +ve slope and an overall pattern like one of the hand drawn charts I did a few pages ago.

[goat68]

Is the red line the pnl at each value? Can you plot cumulative pnl instead?

ok i'm been dumb!, what do you mean by "cumulative" ?!
What I did was put bets into "buckets", so every bet that was 0.94-0.949999 was the red data point on the graph for 0.94, etc ...

[Kai]

disagree watching live would be extremely beneficial for myself and i am sure the others that have requested it . it wouldnt be much use for beginners , but i know i would gain alot from just observing . youtube vids are ok but its easy to record 10 races then edit and post the one thsat worked out best .

True, but can't ask traders to share entire sessions like it's nothing, that would reveal entire trading patterns etc which bottom line hurts the edge. Traders still share amongst themselves but you usually have to pay for that privilege.

It's more sensible to share handpicked uploads or screenies when people want to showcase something, in other words parts of the edge. But you can do a lot with a concrete trading example, try to understand where the edge is coming from and go from there to see how often this sorta setup occurs, the stronger the showcased edge the sooner you can start "replicating" it and vice versa. Obviously, those are rough guidelines, you're supposed to fill the blanks yourself and build whatever skill is needed to execute it.

It's not ideal but it's better than nothing, because not knowing what is even possible, in terms of how P&Ls look and which type of approaches can even work and which ones are obsolete by now can be quite demoralizing. So find people that share their session P&L at least, unless you want to spend ages reinventing the wheel or going off in wrong directions.

[ShaunWhite]

Is the red line the pnl at each value? Can you plot cumulative pnl instead?

ok i'm been dumb!, what do you mean by "cumulative" ?!
What I did was put bets into "buckets", so every bet that was 0.94-0.949999 was the red data point on the graph for 0.94, etc ...

Cummulative is just a running total. Eg you usually sort your results by date/time when you want a pl chart for the month, but you can sort your results by anything you want, price, price gap, time till it was matched, overall vol or anything your creativity can come up with. As though the races happened in some other sequence other than date/time. Then look for upward slopes and see what then corresponded to on the x-axis.

For small samples you may want to group the x-axis into chunks but one step at a time for niem and if the sample is reasonable some sort of pattern should visible.

It would be a useful exercise to take all of your bet history (pl) for a strategy and sort it by as many things as you can think of. I thought you were doing that and that's why I'm always suprised you do the analysis so quickly. It should take days even just to come up with a list of anything and anything you can break it down by (the creativity part) ....... But once you've done that you'll have a reusable spreadsheet you can put any results into to analyse. Again, I suggested you did that work while your data was accumulating so you'd be ready to churn ideas and analyse them easily. I'm pretty sure you didn't do that, maybe I just didn't explain it very well.

[decomez6]

ok i'm been dumb!, what do you mean by "cumulative" ?!
What I did was put bets into "buckets", so every bet that was 0.94-0.949999 was the red data point on the graph for 0.94, etc ...

I am not that technical but the little I know would take cumulative to mean :
Keeping the losses or gains of all points without a reset in the same bucket . Your gains will cancel out your losses and vise versa. Your last calculations is a collection of your overall gains minus your overall losses something like a running total.
it’s never too late to learn I may be wrong.
May be it’s time for me to zip it and let the experienced do the talk.

[decomez6]

Edit the last post Shaun answered it .

[Euler]

I'd like to make a point here.

People have this false impression that there is something special going on, if only they knew that one thing it would transform their trading. But it's not one thing, its an amalgam of many.

I have traded live in front of people many times, but nobody really learns anything. It all happens too fast. The trading process is just much deeper than that. What do you in those final moments, is the product of what you are doing beforehand. So teaching people the components allows them to come up with the final result.

I've actually had the privilege of trying many things and examining all areas. I've even taught my children.

When I used to run courses I would try all manner of different things to try and get people to head in the right direction. But it often felt the harder you tried the harder it became. You need to start at the basics and create some building blocks and work out from there.

I remember sitting two people down, telling them what to do and trading live in front of them. One ended in a profit, the other a loss and at that point I realise not only was trading the issue, but psychology as well.

You can't guarantee, even if you give people the knowledge they need that they can use it.

To give you a case in point I posted two really good YouTube videos both of which resulted in some fab results the week after I posted them. Neither was viewed or liked much at all in comparison to other videos.