Trading What I see !?

[Realrocknrolla]

This sounds reasonable, my issue probably i've only got 4months of data, rather than 1 year + 1 year like you had, I was dealing with 1month + 3months

With the money you have spunked, you could of bought some data that goes further than that. Personally 4 months of data is not worth the effort you are putting in.

Did you look at any inplay strategies? There must be 20-30 basic bots that can be applied to various markets. You just need to learn which market to apply them too.

i've read this: https://www.betfairtradingblog.com/in-p ... cing-pace/
which makes sense, but not sure what the 20-30 might be... care to expand please?

Blimey.

Go to the bathroom and look in the mirror and punch yourself. A good hard slap.

My bad there is 44 in running basic bots.

viewtopic.php?f=43&t=11238

[goat68]

With the money you have spunked, you could of bought some data that goes further than that. Personally 4 months of data is not worth the effort you are putting in.

Did you look at any inplay strategies? There must be 20-30 basic bots that can be applied to various markets. You just need to learn which market to apply them too.

i've read this: https://www.betfairtradingblog.com/in-p ... cing-pace/
which makes sense, but not sure what the 20-30 might be... care to expand please?

Blimey.

Go to the bathroom and look in the mirror and punch yourself. A good hard slap.

My bad there is 44 in running basic bots.

viewtopic.php?f=43&t=11238

So I knew that, I was wondering if you were refering to something else...
As was mentioned the other day I have been looking at this one in particular: viewtopic.php?f=52&t=24368
And couldn't make it work. My question was "why should it work"? the answer came back that all those bots are probably -EV, just samples for the software...
The obvious comeback is, yes, but you need to choose the right markets... BUT the above one in particular, I cannot see how market choice would make any difference? So you're scalping the fav that has a 3 tick gap in the first 25% of the race.
Q: Why is the 3 tick gap important?
Q: How would say a Hcap, Mdn, or Nov behave any different?
Q: How would more/less runners behave any different?
Q: Are we saying there is some magic combination, eg.tight price Hcap's with more than 9 runners on left-handed courses, where you can scalp a 3tick gap profitably?

To me this particular example, is just that, showing what you can code up with BA.

[Realrocknrolla]

i've read this: https://www.betfairtradingblog.com/in-p ... cing-pace/
which makes sense, but not sure what the 20-30 might be... care to expand please?

Blimey.

Go to the bathroom and look in the mirror and punch yourself. A good hard slap.

My bad there is 44 in running basic bots.

viewtopic.php?f=43&t=11238

So I knew that, I was wondering if you were refering to something else...
As was mentioned the other day I have been looking at this one in particular: viewtopic.php?f=52&t=24368
And couldn't make it work. My question was "why should it work"? the answer came back that all those bots are probably -EV, just samples for the software...
The obvious comeback is, yes, but you need to choose the right markets... BUT the above one in particular, I cannot see how market choice would make any difference? So you're scalping the fav that has a 3 tick gap in the first 25% of the race.
Q: Why is the 3 tick gap important? I don't believe that is important.. profit is important!
Q: How would say a Hcap, Mdn, or Nov behave any different? Every race is different, it is up to you to determine how that race will pan out.
Q: How would more/less runners behave any different? More runners means there is greater chance of more runners winning that race, hence the price of a fave in a 15 runner field will be greater than a five runner field. In theory.
Q: Are we saying there is some magic combination, eg.tight price Hcap's with more than 9 runners on left-handed courses, where you can scalp a 3tick gap profitably? Yes it is magic.. abracadabra.

To me this particular example, is just that, showing what you can code up with BA.

[ShaunWhite]

Two ways to approach in-running imo. The generic value at any time approach which you've already struggled with pre-race. Or being selective for which you'll need fundamental data (running style etc) and that's going to be impossible to test until you've got months of data to accompany the price data.

[goat68]

Two ways to approach in-running imo. The generic value at any time approach which you've already struggled with pre-race. Or being selective for which you'll need fundamental data (running style etc) and that's going to be impossible to test until you've got months of data to accompany the price data.

Yep that makes sense, and agrees with Peter's blog.

[goat68]

So I have another follow-up question..
So take the example of say the favourite of a given race is a running style of "leader" from start.
Say it goes at a BSP of 3.0, but has a poor start, Q:what happens to the price?
So most people know it's a front runner, and will immediately try and "Lay" in the 3's as it's having a bad day and unlikely to win in its usual style.
So the price shoots out to 6.0, and is probably neutral value there.
So where's the "edge" ?
Everyone knows what this horse does and knows what the the price should roughly be...
I can only think of one "edge" in this scenario, "SPEED of EXECUTION",ie.get in there to Lay before everyone else, so either:
1) track side and quick on the button!
2) you've got TPD and can tell before others the horse is slow to start
3) you've got your trading VM at a data center close to the Exchange and can get in the queue early

what's not going to give you an "edge":
1) waiting for a 3 tick gap in price
2) price is above vwap back !

So what i'm asking is basically is the "situation" already "factored in" before you get a chance to trade? In essence the "rich" guys who can afford TPD, tracksiders, VMs next to the exchange take all our money...!?

[ShaunWhite]

Yep that makes sense, and agrees with Peter's blog.

I don't read that guy's stuff so thanks for the cross check. I used to but following someone else usually leaves you with more questions than answers, so I try to use my own (critical) thinking these days. Tbh there's only a few basic approaches so all the devil is in the detail rather than there being any big new ideas out there.

[ShaunWhite]

So I have another follow-up question..
So take the example of say the favourite of a given race is a running style of "leader" from start.
Say it goes at a BSP of 3.0, but has a poor start, Q:what happens to the price?
So most people know it's a front runner, and will immediately try and "Lay" in the 3's as it's having a bad day and unlikely to win in its usual style.
So the price shoots out to 6.0, and is probably neutral value there.
So where's the "edge" ?
Everyone knows what this horse does and knows what the the price should roughly be...
I can only think of one "edge" in this scenario, "SPEED of EXECUTION",ie.get in there to Lay before everyone else, so either:
1) track side and quick on the button!
2) you've got TPD and can tell before others the horse is slow to start
3) you've got your trading VM at a data center close to the Exchange and can get in the queue early

what's not going to give you an "edge":
1) waiting for a 3 tick gap in price
2) price is above vwap back !

So what i'm asking is basically is the "situation" already "factored in" before you get a chance to trade? In essence the "rich" guys who can afford TPD, tracksiders, VMs next to the exchange take all our money...!?

Running styles and pace notes are a whole world of specialisation.

In your example of a front running fav that starts badly, you say you'd think it would be layed because it's not it's day. I'd be a contrarian and back it, because a decent horse will have probably recovered a few lost lengths in a furlong or two. It's not just black and white.

Unless a horse falls there's no real reason for massive price changes in the space of a few seconds early on. The basis of a decent strategy is the opposite of what you're suggesting and why offering poor value at any time works. Joe Public will panic and lay a bad starter, smarter money isn't so easily fooled.

[goat68]

So I have another follow-up question..
So take the example of say the favourite of a given race is a running style of "leader" from start.
Say it goes at a BSP of 3.0, but has a poor start, Q:what happens to the price?
So most people know it's a front runner, and will immediately try and "Lay" in the 3's as it's having a bad day and unlikely to win in its usual style.
So the price shoots out to 6.0, and is probably neutral value there.
So where's the "edge" ?
Everyone knows what this horse does and knows what the the price should roughly be...
I can only think of one "edge" in this scenario, "SPEED of EXECUTION",ie.get in there to Lay before everyone else, so either:
1) track side and quick on the button!
2) you've got TPD and can tell before others the horse is slow to start
3) you've got your trading VM at a data center close to the Exchange and can get in the queue early

what's not going to give you an "edge":
1) waiting for a 3 tick gap in price
2) price is above vwap back !

So what i'm asking is basically is the "situation" already "factored in" before you get a chance to trade? In essence the "rich" guys who can afford TPD, tracksiders, VMs next to the exchange take all our money...!?

Running styles and pace notes are a whole world of specialisation.

In your example of a front running fav that starts badly, you say you'd think it would be layed because it's not it's day. I'd be a contrarian and back it, because a decent horse will have probably recovered a few lost lengths in a furlong or two. It's not just black and white.

Unless a horse falls there's no real reason for massive price changes in the space of a few seconds early on. The basis of a decent strategy is the opposite of what you're suggesting and why offering poor value at any time works. Joe Public will panic and lay a bad starter, smarter money isn't so easily fooled.

Nice one Shaun, so yeah see your point, I could say I was wrong, so "Everyone" would back... but then I got it wrong, so probably a lot of others will do to...

[ShaunWhite]

Btw You tend to turn assumptions into assertions. Try using the old debating training technique of switching sides and trying to argue the exact opposite. I bang on about critical thinking but there's nobody to question your thinking apart from yourself so you have to wear both hats.

[Tetras]

So I have another follow-up question..
So take the example of say the favourite of a given race is a running style of "leader" from start.
Say it goes at a BSP of 3.0, but has a poor start, Q:what happens to the price?
So most people know it's a front runner, and will immediately try and "Lay" in the 3's as it's having a bad day and unlikely to win in its usual style.
So the price shoots out to 6.0, and is probably neutral value there.
So where's the "edge" ?
Everyone knows what this horse does and knows what the the price should roughly be...
I can only think of one "edge" in this scenario, "SPEED of EXECUTION",ie.get in there to Lay before everyone else, so either:
1) track side and quick on the button!
2) you've got TPD and can tell before others the horse is slow to start
3) you've got your trading VM at a data center close to the Exchange and can get in the queue early

what's not going to give you an "edge":
1) waiting for a 3 tick gap in price
2) price is above vwap back !

So what i'm asking is basically is the "situation" already "factored in" before you get a chance to trade? In essence the "rich" guys who can afford TPD, tracksiders, VMs next to the exchange take all our money...!?

If too many people are trying to get out then I'd argue it's going to be value because they'll chase the price up, but either way, you can only validate your judgement over many trades.

[goat68]

My last throw of the dice, i'm trying some automation with inplay Back to Lay. I review attheraces pace, predictor, cards in the evening for selections for the next day... Automation then drives the execution.
So far i'd say it's far more difficult than youtube videos and blogs make out! Real back to lay "Value" is actually very hard to find.

[arch4672]

My last throw of the dice, i'm trying some automation with inplay Back to Lay. I review attheraces pace, predictor, cards in the evening for selections for the next day... Automation then drives the execution.
So far i'd say it's far more difficult than youtube videos and blogs make out! Real back to lay "Value" is actually very hard to find.

Is this one based on any analysis or have you plucked numbers out of the air again?

[goat68]

My last throw of the dice, i'm trying some automation with inplay Back to Lay. I review attheraces pace, predictor, cards in the evening for selections for the next day... Automation then drives the execution.
So far i'd say it's far more difficult than youtube videos and blogs make out! Real back to lay "Value" is actually very hard to find.

Is this one based on any analysis or have you plucked numbers out of the air again?

I like your scepticism!
As I tried to say above, via analysis of attheraces resources.

[wearthefoxhat]

My last throw of the dice, i'm trying some automation with inplay Back to Lay. I review attheraces pace, predictor, cards in the evening for selections for the next day... Automation then drives the execution.
So far i'd say it's far more difficult than youtube videos and blogs make out! Real back to lay "Value" is actually very hard to find.

Is this one based on any analysis or have you plucked numbers out of the air again?

I like your scepticism!
As I tried to say above, via analysis of attheraces resources.

Might also be worth cross referring with RacingTV website pace maps.

https://www.racingtv.com/racecards/kemp ... andicap-5?

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