Point 4 - Why do you place 2 separate £5 bets at different odds above, why not just 1 ?Llosgi wrote: ↑Tue Jun 27, 2017 10:49 pmHi everyone
I thought I'd share something of what has been my journey to that prized consistency over the last year in my attempt to be profitable in sports trading. To be honest I have nearly given up a number of times, finding the markets ruthless and merciless (which they are). But over time I have found a way to make steady and reliable gains. They are cautious and risk averse (I've been burnt too many times and this is now imprinted in my forehead: "don't go in running". Really.
So for what it's worth, here are my tips for newbies, earned in blood but worth it in my humble opinion.
1. Select a horse race and check the charts of the top 2 horses. Note whether they are relatively stable in price or whether there is more volatility. Select which horse to trade.
2. Start with a bank of £10.
3. Stake to a liability of £5.
4. On the ladders, take a look at where the current price point is. Place 2 £5 back bets a few ticks higher than the current price, ideally where there is a gap or at least a low-ish amount of money available. So if the last traded price was 6.0-6.2, you might place your orders, say, at 6.8 and 7.4.
5. Do the same on the lay side -place two lays each for a liability of £5. (This means your actual stake will be lower than £5 unless you are placing a lay order at odds lower than 2.0 when it will be higher). Place them a few ticks below current price where the amount queuing is small(ish).
6. Now wait to see which way the market moves- you have bets queued both sides so you don't mind which way it goes.
7. As soon as a stake is taken, green up 1 tick lower/ higher, depending on which bet was taken. You can do this with the tick off set tool, but I find it better to do it manually. As soon as the bet is taken, fire in a green up bet one tick in the other direction. This works because typically odds move in an oscillating way e.g, your order at 6.8 has just been taken, and now the trading range briefly moves between 6.8 and 6.6, nicely picking up your offset green.
8 Reassess the market and repeat, until about 1.5 minutes before race starts.
9. Then green up (or red up). Get out. Whatever. Do not , I repeat, do not ever go in running. Take the small managed loss on the chin if necessary.
10. Move to the next race and carry on.
If you are lucky you may make 4p - 50p per race with a bank this size. But don't forget, if you can make 15% profit on one day (£1.50 over 15 races , say), tomorrow you will have £11.50 and if you keep compounding at that rate in 30 days you will have around a £1000.
I know this probably seems very pedestrian, but I bear the scars of more ambitious schemes and this one has worked very well indeed for me.
Thanks to all for a supportive community
Cheers
Llosgi
What I've learned
-
cybernet69
On the videos I have seen, he said to start off with just one bet above and one bet below the market, but after you get used to the strategy you can start placing two or more bets above and below. I think from memory he was using three above and three below, for the reason you have given here.
I think anyone new to pre off horse race trading and thinking of giving this strategy a go, needs to pay a lot of attention to this statement. This was one of the main reasons why I stopped using this strategy, I found it very hard to work out if a real break out had occurred or if it was just ebb and flow of the market. The problem is when your scalping just one tick profit at a time, you take some 8 or 10 tics losses and you know its going to take a while to make back those losses.
In one of the videos I mentioned earlier the guy at one point was looking at a 17 tick loss, he held on and eventually the price came back and he got out with a 1 tick profit, I personally would have got out a lot sooner, but at the end of the day I would have lost on that trade and he made a profit.
I suspect you have been successful at this strategy because you gained a really important skill but one which is very difficult to learn. You have manage to identify with a high degree of accuracy when you are in a loss position if the trade is going to come back in your favour, or if its time to get out. This is something that is not easy to do, but its something that is absolutely essential to make this strategy profitable.
I think this (determining whether a price move is a movement within a range which will return, or whether it is a true breakout) is still a work in progress for me, and is probably the key skill required for all traders! For a long time, I would trade out too quickly if the price moved two or three ticks against me, only to have it sail back to my position 10 seconds later. I am sure we all are familiar with this.... I am much better at it now, but this is indeed why I place bets at various points on the ladder to pick up some of the slack.Bluesky wrote: ↑Wed Jun 28, 2017 9:52 pmI think anyone new to pre off horse race trading and thinking of giving this strategy a go, needs to pay a lot of attention to this statement. This was one of the main reasons why I stopped using this strategy, I found it very hard to work out if a real break out had occurred or if it was just ebb and flow of the market. The problem is when your scalping just one tick profit at a time, you take some 8 or 10 tics losses and you know its going to take a while to make back those losses.
In one of the videos I mentioned earlier the guy at one point was looking at a 17 tick loss, he held on and eventually the price came back and he got out with a 1 tick profit, I personally would have got out a lot sooner, but at the end of the day I would have lost on that trade and he made a profit.
I suspect you have been successful at this strategy because you gained a really important skill but one which is very difficult to learn. You have manage to identify with a high degree of accuracy when you are in a loss position if the trade is going to come back in your favour, or if its time to get out. This is something that is not easy to do, but its something that is absolutely essential to make this strategy profitable.
In my experience, it has been watching loads and loads of races and observing how odds move that has increased my strike rate - getting a sense of how the whole market moves (one or two up, means another one or two move down etc), but also being more confident about what is a drift out (i.e. it aint coming back), and what is a temporary move prior to a move back.
Also I am not too ambitious in one race - I will settle for a couple of greened up trades, rather than keep going back for more unless I am in the flow and very confident of the direction of travel. You will get the impression that I play it quite cautiously ... you'd be right!
I wonder if the programmers out there might be able to use this info to help them work out the rules for scratching the trade.cybernet69 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 28, 2017 5:59 pmOne other thing it doesn't handle is that Rule 4 issue which we spoke about before. Apparently the scratch/cancel gets confused and costs him a few quid.
-
cybernet69
Who ?, my friend is not about to share any of it.Bluesky wrote: ↑Wed Jun 28, 2017 10:26 pmI wonder if the programmers out there might be able to use this info to help them work out the rules for scratching the trade.cybernet69 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 28, 2017 5:59 pmOne other thing it doesn't handle is that Rule 4 issue which we spoke about before. Apparently the scratch/cancel gets confused and costs him a few quid.
If it's the video I think it is, it's a terrible video. If you think about it logically a +1 / -17 tick range is an impossible trading expectancy to work with. I know from all the research I've done, a retracement from a 17 tick variance is very rare, so only luck brought that trade to a good conclusion.Bluesky wrote: ↑Wed Jun 28, 2017 9:52 pmIn one of the videos I mentioned earlier the guy at one point was looking at a 17 tick loss, he held on and eventually the price came back and he got out with a 1 tick profit, I personally would have got out a lot sooner, but at the end of the day I would have lost on that trade and he made a profit.
-
dannycutts
- Posts: 71
- Joined: Sat Sep 17, 2016 9:10 pm
- Location: West Sussex
Can you show us the original strategy?
please..... pretty please
I could be completely wrong as I am not a programmer (never liked programming and consequently was never any good at it).
I would have thought that when Rule 4 comes into action, and the system can't get out for scratch but makes a loss instead, might give a smart programmer a clue as to how the original programmer in Chennai put together the scratch rules.
-
cybernet69
I don't have the source code so cant really say. But I imagine it has something to-do with taking into account the build up of matched/unmatched money either side of the LTP. But I am not an expert on the subject.Bluesky wrote: ↑Thu Jun 29, 2017 8:37 amI could be completely wrong as I am not a programmer (never liked programming and consequently was never any good at it).
I would have thought that when Rule 4 comes into action, and the system can't get out for scratch but makes a loss instead, might give a smart programmer a clue as to how the original programmer in Chennai put together the scratch rules.
But this has lead me and others to explore another possibility. The games afoot. Get your coat Watson.
When I first read this, it seemed a bit on the high side, are you sure about it? I have just used an on line calculator compounding £10 at 15% daily and after 30 days I get a figure of around £660. Still a fantastic return but I am wondering have I made a mistake in my calculations or have you.