True odds calculation

[goat68]

I successfully made the additive method in Excel but I am not understanding power method calculation

x = Bookie's evaluated True odds as fraction 0.0->1.0
k = Bookie's chosen constant, we don't know this but need to solve for it
Bookie odds = 1/(x^k)

Code: Select all

kBestDiff = 9999999.0
kBest = 0.0
For k = 0.0 to 1.0:
   Sum k th root of 1/Bookie odds
   if abs(Sum-1.0) < kBestDiff:
       kBest = k
       kBestDiff = abs(Sum-1.0)

print "best fit k = " + kBest

[azfyazfy]

Sorry I didn't understand
My bad luck

[goat68]

Sorry I didn't understand
My bad luck

might be best reading the article, which explains the power method

[decomez6]

Not even the jockeys or the horse owners know the true odds of their horse winning . Not unless they hold secret meetings and decide how each jokey will ride his horse . They will need to calculate all the variables for all participating horses and run them through all weather conditions e.t.c.
You will also find it difficult to find a place to use your true odds , as bookies don’t like winners and exchanges are BSP effecient. The more you participate in the market , the more you help to correct the true odds against you .
Do not under-estimate the power of bookies/ exchanges, they are NOT the last mugs standing .
They hold the key to the true odds.

[ShaunWhite]

It's not possible to know the true odds of a given horse on any given day to within any useable degree of accuracy. Without that uncertainly there wouldn't even be a horseracing gambling industry. it would just be roulette on legs.

Accuracy or efficiency or whatever you chose to call it is only evident with a sufficiently large hive mind and sufficiently large sample.

[andy28]

You cant work out true odds of a race when so much revolves around the top 2 inches of a horse. You could run a race today and record the result and then replicate the race conditions tomorrow and would get a different result

[azfyazfy]

If you all read the article of how true odds are calculated in 4 different methods.
Please try to solve how power method is calculated in Excel.

I will pay you for your hard work please help

[Derek27]

If you all read the article of how true odds are calculated in 4 different methods.
Please try to solve how power method is calculated in Excel.

I will pay you for your hard work please help

How much are you willing to pay?

[azfyazfy]

100$

[gazuty]

100$

Mr azfyazfy, given the multiple jurisdictions of participants here can you clarify is this USD?

[Derek27]

100$

What power are you willing to raise it to?

[azfyazfy]

Yes bro

[azfyazfy]

IMG_20211229_221114.jpg

[Realrocknrolla]

Been thinking about true odds since this thread was started.

If a two horse race is priced at

No 1 - Evens
No 2 - Evens

Then that is true odds? A 100% book??

However, we all know this never happens.

All the variables that are taken into consideration have to be true. A jockeys weight may not be true etc etc. The horse might have a tummy bug etc etc. The weather may have a drastic change etc etc.

Definitely a tricky one and I lean to the impossible. (Falling Over)

Or Wizardry.

[burntheory]

IMG_20211229_221114.jpg

For the top table, using Solver in Excel produces Power values that are almost identical.

These aren't 'true' odds, only a better approximation. They also more accurately reflect the effects of favourite / longshot bias.