jimibt wrote: ↑Fri Jan 26, 2024 3:42 pm
this is probably more a case of understanding the makeup of the exchange and BA arenas than anything else.
in the beginning (as i mentioned in an another thread), I kinda blazed on, regardless and altho I made some good headway, my epiphany came once I understood what each of the moving parts represented. This was basically how i broke it down:
1. you have a finite time in which to participate in the market - look at how it forms and look at when the money arrives
2. as you are doing, look at the 2nd, 3rd, 4th best prices during the market formation and see how money flows across them
3. experiment with different offsets when offering to the market (it's tempting to take best price but offering outside the spread at various points is an interesting exercise and highlights the efficiencies you'll have to battle with)
4. always remember that the BF market (in the WIN horse market) has a book value of roughly 100%. this means that if one price shortens, one or many other prices must drift up in order to accommodate this mechanical nature. track the main runners that are affected by for example, a sudden shortening of the fav.
5. box up volume into a pseudo book% also. i.e. sum all the volume and then divi it into %ages. you can then compare things like volume% vs book% and track those related changes
6. In Play, keep a close eye on the two main contenders at the dying part of the race. You'll see an interesting pattern play out time and time again where the odds on both contenders gyrate out in a symmetrical parabolic curve (one up, one down). this can be exploited purely mechanically
Mechanical studies - all of the above play out every day and has no bearing on fundamentals. Just my
take from back in the day...