Classic problem/riddle

[PeterLe]

Hi Peter,


The only applications I can see would be in fixed odds arcade or casino games.

Think again.

Ha Ha Tease!
All my systems are based on Mathematics..I never base them on form (except Jolly's info!)..and done ok from them.
I think thats the hook for me, trying to solve puzzles like this..

[NileVentures]

Think again.

???

[gazuty]

The only applications I can see would be in fixed odds arcade or casino games.

Challenging your use of the word "only".

[barlorca]

This is like one I had at primary school years ago.

Proof I have 11 digits!!

Start with any hand, count down tne five digits 10-9-8-7-6 + 5 digits on the other hand = 11 digits!.

You know it cannot be true, but its all how you apply mathematics.

[barlorca]

Talking over breakfast my wife reminded me of one instance I had in mid west America in the late 80's.

Watching a TV programme one night, the aim was of opening one of the three boxes to win a date with a famous actor/actress.

One female contestant when down to two boxes, summed it up as follows: "When I had three boxes I had a chance! (1 in 3) Now its a yes or no (1 in 2) thats not fair", and threw a real strop.

Logic had gone out the window when she was offered a second chance.


Increases in the chance of winning produces different reactions in different people, but the statistics are still the same.

Removing a box and offering a second chance to choose, is still a reduction from a 1 in 3 to 1 in 2 chance. It is the option of a second chance that upsets people, the odds of a successful pick increase from 33% to 50%.

[NileVentures]

Removing a box and offering a second chance to choose, is still a reduction from a 1 in 3 to 1 in 2 chance. It is the option of a second chance that upsets people, the odds of a successful pick increase from 33% to 50%.

But the point is that if you change your mind and switch boxes when presented with a choice of two, you increase your odds to 2/3.

[gazuty]

Removing a box and offering a second chance to choose, is still a reduction from a 1 in 3 to 1 in 2 chance. It is the option of a second chance that upsets people, the odds of a successful pick increase from 33% to 50%.

But the point is that if you change your mind and switch boxes when presented with a choice of two, you increase your odds to 2/3.

That is correct. If you stick with your initial choice you have a 1/3 chance.

If you change boxes you have a 2/3 chance.

Barlorca you need to go back earlier in the thread.

[Euler]

Nice explanation of the monty hall problem

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-24047377

[switesh]

Seemed counter-intuitive & baffling, but someone in the office explained it to me better than that video.

Here's how he explained:
Let's suppose there are not 3, but 100 doors to pick from.
1 door contains car, remaining contain goats.

Initial choice:
P(me picking a goat, or wrong choice) = 99/100

Now, Monty blows 98 doors with goats (removes 98 wrong choices).
He does this because according to the rules of the game he MUST remove/eliminate the goats (wrong choices).

Hence, he now offers me the BEST possible choice.

So ask yourself - which choice is better:

• My initial choice of picking 99/100 goat (wrong choices)
  Or, the BEST 1 of 99 he offers me now?

The answer is simple - his new offer is better than my old choice.