whats happening in these horse racing markets! My thoughts!

[xitian]

For the guys who trade other sports like football or tennis, do you also find liquidity, fill rate, and volatility affected in the same way as horse racing has been?

[barlorca]

As an "oldie" I have long studied form, tracks, surfaces, horses, jockeys, trainers etc. So I have a fair grounding in what should happen (most of the time). Having been a 8+years user of Betfair I can say I seen most things.

One thing I noticed lately, in horse racing are the movements on the Ladder. I don't know if its bots, bombers or whatever, but logical movements are definitely going out of the window.

Other markets (fotball, tennis etc) still seem to conform to expected price movements and available liquidity (depending on the match status etc).

So I now avoid daily horse racing and pick and choose more selectively which races I will trade on.

[Iron]

One thing I noticed lately, in horse racing are the movements on the Ladder. I don't know if its bots, bombers or whatever, but logical movements are definitely going out of the window.

Can you elaborate please?

What do you mean by 'in horse racing are the movements on the Ladder'?

Thanks

Jeff

[barlorca]

Apologies,

I did not make myself clear, I use the ladder interface to follow movements.

Sometimes it appears that despite the way the odds are moving at the bookmakers, the ladder shows the opposite. Amounts (sometimes ridiculous) arrive and are immediately removed, (without being matched). this appears to set off activity by bots, and throws the market into confusion. This is happening repeatedly.

All I do know is that this action does not appear to happen in markets other than horse racing.

Why I'm open to anybodies guesses.

[jimrobo]

barlorca this is exactly the activity that is killing the markets. It is completely illogical and against market momentum. It makes the markets like a stuttering car tryingto accelerate. It can never gain enough momentum in either direction to be tradeable.

[LeTiss]

I don't have a problem with that kind of activity - that is people simply playing the system.

I have to be honest, I've even done that in the past. When you detect bots are in play, simply place ridiculous orders with a kill of 10 seconds, and it destroys some people's automation by starting incorrect trends

There is nothing in the handbook of trading etiquette which says you mustn't trick computers

[jimrobo]

le tiss completely agree with that!

The problem is there is bot that will push positions against you and has the abilty to take positions in the ten of thousands even extending to hundreds of thousands putting up walls of money no one can get through then the flood gates are opened and the market flies through resistance that has been holding the market up. There is no way of knowing if and when these gates are going to be closed or kept open because here is a bot that can completely hold the market up should it need to. It also has the ability to manipulate the price around various points simply pushing the market against the current trend then reversing the flow. It simply shakes traders out of the tree then moves the price back to where it started.

[steven1976]

I completely agree with jim and it happens in football and other markets as well. The beauty of football is you can keep buying their money as it has to move. In horses it doesn't have to move until the last furlong.

You all know my views on self matching and this is where I think the biggest problem is. If you want to bluff a market by putting 100 k with no intention of being matched then I accept that. If you put 100 k and someone jumps in front of the 100 k say with 1k and immediately a 200 k order moves against it then to me that is fraud.

[mugsgame]

The markets have always and will always change. It's the name of the game. You need to understand what is going on and adapt and overcome. In most cases you can turn it into an advantage. There is no doubt it gets harder, but it isn't impossible, just frustrating.

[jimrobo]

I'm not saying you can't profit. You can. But the amount of money you can make now is significantly less than you could make when the markets were free from this particular activity. Personally I think this is going to get a lot worse for the guys trading it. The automatic bots are going to get better coded, more complicated and squeeze the smaller trader until they are priced out of the market. The market is completely transparent. All it takes is some clever coding and something can record and trace all your trades going forward. All they need to do is a market profile type of setup and they can push individual positions against traders which is what I suspect is what is going on. As there is less money going forward your positions are going to become more transparent and easier to manipulate.

[Iron]

It's possible that the enemy is Betfair itself, in which case you're already 100% transparent (unless their code of ethics stops them from observing what their clients are doing).

Here's a theory.

Maybe the reason that Betfair introduced the 60% PC is because they had been modelling the activities of the people the charge applied to, and knew they could step into their shoes if need be. Maybe what we're up against is a Betfair-operated bot that mimics the activities of the most successful human traders (but without being burdened by commission).

Jeff

As there is less money going forward your positions are going to become more transparent and easier to manipulate.

[steven1976]

I'm not saying you can't profit. You can. But the amount of money you can make now is significantly less than you could make when the markets were free from this particular activity. Personally I think this is going to get a lot worse for the guys trading it. The automatic bots are going to get better coded, more complicated and squeeze the smaller trader until they are priced out of the market. The market is completely transparent. All it takes is some clever coding and something can record and trace all your trades going forward. All they need to do is a market profile type of setup and they can push individual positions against traders which is what I suspect is what is going on. As there is less money going forward your positions are going to become more transparent and easier to manipulate.

And the biggest thing is, the new guy doesn't refer 5 new friends, who inturn doesn't refer.....

[george]

betfair it self have full time horse race traders working thats a fact , i called the helpdesk regarding some bets on football and the answer i got was sorry i cant help you with the football markets im a horse racing trader i will put u through to someone that can help

[mugsgame]

It's possible that the enemy is Betfair itself, in which case you're already 100% transparent (unless their code of ethics stops them from observing what their clients are doing).

Here's a theory.

Maybe the reason that Betfair introduced the 60% PC is because they had been modelling the activities of the people the charge applied to, and knew they could step into their shoes if need be. Maybe what we're up against is a Betfair-operated bot that mimics the activities of the most successful human traders (but without being burdened by commission).

Jeff

As there is less money going forward your positions are going to become more transparent and easier to manipulate.

Thing is Jeff there is no way they can mimic my trades. Because I have idea what I am going to do myself

[LeTiss]

It's possible that the enemy is Betfair itself, in which case you're already 100% transparent (unless their code of ethics stops them from observing what their clients are doing).

Here's a theory.

Maybe the reason that Betfair introduced the 60% PC is because they had been modelling the activities of the people the charge applied to, and knew they could step into their shoes if need be. Maybe what we're up against is a Betfair-operated bot that mimics the activities of the most successful human traders (but without being burdened by commission).

On the face of it, that sounds bonkers, but I think you have actually made a very interesting, valid point Jeff

We have heard numerous stories where people have been charged PC due to BF linking accounts, where trading activities are similar

This suggests BF have an internal model that tracks how PC traders actually trade. The prospect of them having developed a bot that mirrors that activity is certainly not beyond their level of deception