There is no such things as trading soccer: it's just betting

[ray131262]

Without explaining the strategy, the money is risked when there is no chance of a goal being scored.

Each to their own, works fine for me especially on the Englandgame last night - 9% profit for 15 minutes.

[Iron]

Ray -

Specifically what market inefficiency are you exploiting?

Jeff

[Biedermeier]

For me trading in play is about profiling a match, having a potential value opinion on a particular market, and then devising a strategy that allows you to manage risk without cutting in to your long term profits.

+1.

Interesting observation: Although my in-play profit curve is more volatile than my pre-off profit curve, there's greater value to be found in-play than there is before kick-off. (Same for tennis too, in my experience.)

[Groovyelms]

Without explaining the strategy, the money is risked when there is no chance of a goal being scored.

Each to their own, works fine for me especially on the Englandgame last night - 9% profit for 15 minutes.

nice result...

I get this i think.. good for thought tnx Ray

cheers groovy

[burdo77]

Nice price movements an be detected with sites like odds portal by looking at dropping odds. I think you could possibly extract the data into an excel speadsheet to automate such trades. Thoughts...

I might add, cricket is very easy to trade pre game aswell.

[ray131262]

There are market indicators using Odds checker and a couple of other sites that indicate a strong trend. Skill though (or guess)to determine if it's likely to continue, stopping or going in reverse.

Keeping abreast though of news on the sport and team is essential.

[Iron]

Keeping abreast though of news on the sport and team is essential.

Is it? You sure?

I could be wrong, but I imagine many successful traders just trade the numbers. The market knows more than you about the event, so you'll struggle to beat it through analysis of info in the public domain...

Jeff

[mugsgame]

The real skill is actually knowing what the price should be. It's all well and good following a trend like this, but there reaches a point when the price correction has bottomed. Following odds check won't give you this.
Pros who trade this don't wait for team news. I'll be looking for a way out by then having taken my money.

This type of trading is old hat - everyone does it. The edge has long gone.

[burdo77]

I would of thought that odds checking would be a better indicator than actual news due to the influence that inside info has ???

[Consty1]

Keeping abreast though of news on the sport and team is essential.

Is it? You sure?

I could be wrong, but I imagine many successful traders just trade the numbers. The market knows more than you about the event, so you'll struggle to beat it through analysis of info in the public domain...

Jeff

Jeff I sometimes feel like you think the markets are absolutely rock solid in difficulty!

You have to keep track of team news in a lot of instances, the skill like Mugs said is knowing how far the trend will continue and what price it should be.

You can easily trade team news when it's announced as well, you just have to really know your football and how formation and players can move a market. Remember there's an hour from team news to kick off, plenty of time to anticipate a move despite the teams being common knowledge.

[burdo77]

I'm wondering if a notable player has been left out from the side due to injury whether the match odds is the place to make a good trade.... Wouldn't the larger lines like +1, +1.5 be attacked first for value, unless the Asian lines are directly associated with match odds???

[Iron]

Jeff I sometimes feel like you think the markets are absolutely rock solid in difficulty!

Getting an edge against ultra-efficient markets isn't as easy as falling off a log.

You have to keep track of team news in a lot of instances, the skill like Mugs said is knowing how far the trend will continue and what price it should be.

How do you determine what the price should be?

With greatest respect, the market probably has a better idea of what the correct price is than you do.

In 1907, Sir Francis Galton asked 787 villagers to guess the weight of an ox. None of them got the right answer, but when Galton averaged their guesses, he arrived at a near perfect estimate. This is a classic demonstration of the “wisdom of the crowds”, where groups of people pool their abilities to show collective intelligence.

From http://phenomena.nationalgeographic.com ... he-crowds/

Jeff

[burdo77]

I am no expert however this seems like a generalised quote which has no bearing on gambling markets. The above assumption would assume that everyone's guess had equal weighting. However, gambling markets are not modelled on overall public opinion, but represent the mean public opinion which is made up of large, small and medium size bets. If you take away the largest bets from the mean do u still have the same price???? I doubt it...

[Iron]

Studies have shown the market to be highly accurate overall in terms of reflecting the true odds of things happening, over many thousands of bets. See http://www.probabilitytheory.info/conte ... ge-markets for example.

Whether that is still the case is an unknown, but I wouldn't dismiss the theory as having no bearing on gambling markets...

Jeff

I am no expert however this seems like a generalised quote which has no bearing on gambling markets. The above assumption would assume that everyone's guess had equal weighting. However, gambling markets are not modelled on overall public opinion, but represent the mean public opinion which is made up of large, small and medium size bets. If you take away the largest bets from the mean do u still have the same price???? I doubt it...

[burdo77]

It's a highly debated topic on whether the odds are efficient , however humans are risk takers, therefore they are likely to pick a team to win rather back the draw. I can name numerous journal articles which investigate the efficiency of football markets and most I have read come to the conclusion that the draw is undervalued, therefore not efficient.