Today's Horse Racing
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Crazyskier
- Posts: 1301
- Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:36 pm
13.30 Haydock - Fix le Cap overturned by Frodon at SP of 1.27
The jockey should be sacked, the way he rallied once he'd been passed! He could have won it easily with more pace early on. 6 minutes for a 2 miler!
Luckily I had the 2-1 forecast as a saver bet so all is well : - )
The jockey should be sacked, the way he rallied once he'd been passed! He could have won it easily with more pace early on. 6 minutes for a 2 miler!
Luckily I had the 2-1 forecast as a saver bet so all is well : - )
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Crazyskier
- Posts: 1301
- Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:36 pm
The huge amount of outsiders coming close or winning today makes me wish I just had a 'back all to level stakes' automation in every race! Didn't do so well in play today : - ()
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vladilyich
- Posts: 127
- Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 6:58 pm
convoysur-2 wrote:buddy -stueytrader wrote:Backed to lay Durban Gold (4.15 kelso) at about 34.0 drifts out to 50.0 red out.
Wins with lengths to spare - I hate those ones.
when you make the decission to put your money in the market on back to lay,you have already decided that its a good trade,
never never never trade out ,because just by default if your selection just stays,by default as the others start to hit 700-1000 the book has to contract. even if he is third and dont look like winning you will are likely to get matched.
let me tell you how it all changed for me along time ago.
someone asked me to share my back to lay with him ,i did one day,i was reding out and made no money that day.
the next day i tuned on my pc i had a paypal money sent to me for 70 quid ,and an email he told me how happy he was that he made 700 quid and his betfair account was at 1000 quid for the first time. we did the same selections ,but he stayed in the market ,every one was matched ,from that day till now i never trade out .when you place the back and keep your lays inplay .sit on your hands,
Marc
Very sound advice.
I was greened today on a couple that were never in the running until right before the finish and they dobbed very,very late. Its a learning curve that I am still very much learning even now after a few years of using the exchange.
Cross matching was on all day yesterday (InPlay) according to the API but the underround was constantly going over 100%. Looks like they have adjusted the magic formula since the issue earlier this week...
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The graph above makes it very difficult to deny!Euler wrote:I've often suspected that they have adjusted the formula but they have denied it every time I challenged them on it.
I have just done some more analysis, see anything odd about this graph?
Underround against time, Jan/Feb this year, filtered on only ticks where cross matching is on.
Notice how on Fridays/Saturday/Sundays the chance of the book going over 100% happens considerably more times than during the week. So there are a lot more races on Friday/Saturday but if cross matching is completely automated across all markets you would think it would behave the same regardless of what day it is.
Want to run a query across all of 2015 but it will take a few hours so will run it tonight when my db isn't being used.
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Ok I give in - please explain, in simple terms for us simpletonians 
PS can if this can be monitored and graphed (it obviously can) would it be possible for betangel to indicate this is occurring with something innocuous like a
symbol (after all they are trying to emulate t*sco and V*lkswag*n et al and will be outed and humiliated eventually if only by the advertising standards authority - the b*tfair name is a contradiction)
PS can if this can be monitored and graphed (it obviously can) would it be possible for betangel to indicate this is occurring with something innocuous like a
symbol (after all they are trying to emulate t*sco and V*lkswag*n et al and will be outed and humiliated eventually if only by the advertising standards authority - the b*tfair name is a contradiction)
Or more people taking advantage of it? Its a relatively simple algorithm, not sure how much they can change?Euler wrote:I'm pretty convinced on a number of occasions the algorithm has been changed. We have seen long term biases in the market vanish overnight. Which generally couldn't possibly happen unless there had been a fundamental change.
XM is supposed to stop the underround going above 100% and the overround lower than 100%, graph is simply showing this not happen.kerberus wrote:Ok I give in - please explain, in simple terms for us simpletonians
How much can it be changed...
If you look at the calculation, I'm not sure it can be changed? I'm not sure how it produces spikes above 100 either? If someone could explain it from a maths perspective I'd appreciate that!
One thing that I think they have changed (and someone mentioned it in another thread yesterday, ie you don't get value when trading out on a back to lay strategy) is that once a price goes up it rarely comes back unless the horse is still very much in contention. (I know that sounds obvious but it just doesn't look the same as when XM first introduced, it's as if it is restricted and would be a plausible thing to do given that only one horse can win! Remember betfair have a full 1 sec advantage, which is a lifetime when we are working in milliseconds)
Anyway, I'm not complaining, had a good result in that one!
If you look at the calculation, I'm not sure it can be changed? I'm not sure how it produces spikes above 100 either? If someone could explain it from a maths perspective I'd appreciate that!
One thing that I think they have changed (and someone mentioned it in another thread yesterday, ie you don't get value when trading out on a back to lay strategy) is that once a price goes up it rarely comes back unless the horse is still very much in contention. (I know that sounds obvious but it just doesn't look the same as when XM first introduced, it's as if it is restricted and would be a plausible thing to do given that only one horse can win! Remember betfair have a full 1 sec advantage, which is a lifetime when we are working in milliseconds)
Anyway, I'm not complaining, had a good result in that one!