Today's Horse Racing
not too bad. Thin. very thin! But they traded fairly true (ie less of the major whip saw action on every runner when orders are put in).
edit....afternoon was fairly straightforward but carlisle this evening has been carnage!! I lost everything I made all afternoon. tres annoying!!!
edit....afternoon was fairly straightforward but carlisle this evening has been carnage!! I lost everything I made all afternoon. tres annoying!!!
I intend to come back swinging hard. I intend to specialize a lot more, avoid the low-grade stuff, and focus mainly on a limited number of selected swing trades where I'm very confident.Euler wrote:
I think the Betfair market market is diverging from true chance at the moment and I'm happy to actively bet against that. A consequence of their current strategy is that they still believe their own rhetoric about pricing and using it for their sportsbook, but it's diverging away from reality. In a strange twist, their greatest strength could become their major weak point.
Once you start redding up every time the market twitches, other traders realize you're a pussy and attack your position. A trader lacking confidence is a trader that's like a wounded seal, ripe to be eaten.
The stop-loss mentality must be decisively rejected. I will slam the arses of those who oppose me with big 1K body-shots.
Betfair and other market manipulators need to be taught a decisive lesson. The heavy hand they will soon be feeling on their back-sides is the price they will pay when they learn what it means to mess with Zenyatta
Zen - Sounds like an advert for "Man on Fire"!Zenyatta wrote:Euler wrote:
The heavy hand they will soon be feeling on their back-sides is the price they will pay when they learn what it means to mess with Zenyatta
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Yeah. Swing traders order 227: "NOT ONE STEP BACK"PeterLe wrote:
Zen - Sounds like an advert for "Man on Fire"!
When you've got the confidence and the bank, you ARE the market. So slam in 1K to get the move going, and keep it going.
Opposing orders? Wait, and keep slamming in the 1K counters until they back down. MAKE EM' BACK DOWN
I've seen a lot of activity today today that can only be explained by bots and automated systems. And I mean huge liquidity being thrown around...up to 30k stakes being ramped up pushing very short term on either side of the book put in and self matched quicker than I can even get a bet in. As of next week I am not even going to touch a favourite pre race. Volatility is crazy.
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steven1976
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Don't expect much different else where jimbo. The size of the numbers may change but the nature of the beast will remain the same.jimrobo wrote:I've seen a lot of activity today today that can only be explained by bots and automated systems. And I mean huge liquidity being thrown around...up to 30k stakes being ramped up pushing very short term on either side of the book put in and self matched quicker than I can even get a bet in. As of next week I am not even going to touch a favourite pre race. Volatility is crazy.
Time we got on the manipulators gravy train ourselves steven!steven1976 wrote:
Don't expect much different else where jimbo. The size of the numbers may change but the nature of the beast will remain the same.
I gave manipulation a test run last year with my 34k bank. I found that by slamming in big sudden 1K bets into a market I could easily start and stop moves in any direction I wanted.
But what happens when another manipulator with an even bigger bank than you decides to have a bit of fun with you, and takes your money and then forces the market in the opposite direction?Zenyatta wrote: Time we got on the manipulators gravy train ourselves steven!
It's not a risk free proposition...
Why did you quit what you refer to as the manipulators' gravy train then?Zenyatta wrote:I gave manipulation a test run last year with my 34k bank. I found that by slamming in big sudden 1K bets into a market I could easily start and stop moves in any direction I wanted.
Jeff
And therein lies the problem, you can't make it work long term because you get into the game of prospect of ruin.But what happens when another manipulator with an even bigger bank than you decides to have a bit of fun with you, and takes your money and then forces the market in the opposite direction?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruin_theory
I watch people in the market carefully and work in and around them. If I see somebody in trouble who is trying to manipulate the market I may well go against them.
I'd prefer to be clever than carry around a sledgehammer, much more longevity.
Last edited by Euler on Sat Aug 10, 2013 8:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
It was very effective when form study enabled me to predict the 'right' price directions, but I started in October '12, and when the quality of races started to decline as the European winter approached (Nov, Dec), it was getting harder and harder to predict price directions; I tried to do too many races and got taken to the cleaners...Ferru123 wrote: Why did you quit what you refer to as the manipulators' gravy train then?
Jeff