UK General Election July 4th 2024 - Trading ONLY thread

[Euler]

Been reviewing all previous data and the market always seems to get the seats wrong.

[Derek27]

Any newsreader that refers back to Sunak calling an election without mentioning the words "in the Rain" and/or "without an umbrella" should be fired. Everybody else mentions it.

[Derek27]

No ousting of the incumbent for policy reasons. Look at the list of "Leaders" for the last 14 years.

When Covid struck that was the moment. It was impossible to overcome that. Labour could have put 'we will euthanise all pets' in their manifesto and they would still get into power.

In 5 or 10 years time, something will happen and everybody will vote for the other guys. It's a sort of flaw with democracy. But at least we have one.

Things could have been so different. Without all the partying, especially on or before the Queen's funeral, there would have been more focus on the positives like rolling out the vaccine. There may not have been a Covid inquiry, in which case, the fact that he's got the mathematical brain of a ten-year-old and doesn't understand basic graphs would never have surfaced.

Also, he may not have been chased out of office, as that was hard enough despite everything he did, so Liz Truss would never have crashed the economy, and he could have been fighting an election in a better position.

[Derek27]

It's not often you'll hear me say something positive about a Tory leader, but here it is; I'll credit Sunak for putting all his cock-ups behind him and fighting to the end. He knows he's lost, but he's still soldiering on and rallying his troops.

[Archery1969]

It's not often you'll hear me say something positive about a Tory leader, but here it is; I'll credit Sunak for putting all his cock-ups behind him and fighting to the end. He knows he's lost, but he's still soldiering on and rallying his troops.

Maybe, just maybe, he will pick a fight with Putin tomorrow, declare the UK at war and call off the election.

[greenmark]

No ousting of the incumbent for policy reasons. Look at the list of "Leaders" for the last 14 years.

When Covid struck that was the moment. It was impossible to overcome that. Labour could have put 'we will euthanise all pets' in their manifesto and they would still get into power.

In 5 or 10 years time, something will happen and everybody will vote for the other guys. It's a sort of flaw with democracy. But at least we have one.

tbh I don't think covid changed my view of the Tory management for the last 14 years. Covid was a grenade that all governments across the globe had to deal with. We did no worse than the US for example but not as well as Germany. OK fair enough. I don't even care about partygate. I will vote Labour tomorrow because the Tory's have lost credibility in running the economy and the country and have imploded into party infighting.
"Fiddling while Rome burns" springs to mind.

[Derek27]

Daily Star: A fond farewell to those self-entitled clowns, chancers, liars, wazzocks, cheats, sociopaths, scumbags and bellends who'll be out of work this time tomorrow after taking us for complete mugs these last 14 years.

[Archery1969]

One thing worries me about Labour. They said they want a big majority as some of the decisions needed will be unpopular. What do they mean by that exactly ?, if they planning on pissing off millions of people that didn’t vote for them then those people are more likely to look to the far right type ideology that maybe about to happen in France, Germany and again in the USA. I wouldn’t have thought that’s a good exercise to embark on ?

[firlandsfarm]

The Financial Times is reporting that the wealthy are selling shares and property amid fears Labour will raise capital gains tax.

Lots of people I know aren't taking any chances. It's in Labour's DNA to tax and spend. Also raising CGT to the same level as Income tax doesn't make any sense. It will kill investment.

Better safe than funding a free-spending politician's ego.

Totally agree Peter. The one thing people seem to forget when comparing rates is that IT enjoys a tax free allowance every year whereas CGT only gets an an allowance in the year of realisation so if the asset is held for 10 years that's 9 years without an allowance and only 1 year with! I would be happy for CGT to equate to the IT rate if CGT had a rate of inflation allowance i.e. it's only the real profit over the inflation rate that is taxed.

[sionascaig]

mmmm, saw 10 folk voting this morning.... usually only see 1 or 2... (and that's in the safest labour seat in Scot)...

[greenmark]

The Financial Times is reporting that the wealthy are selling shares and property amid fears Labour will raise capital gains tax.

Lots of people I know aren't taking any chances. It's in Labour's DNA to tax and spend. Also raising CGT to the same level as Income tax doesn't make any sense. It will kill investment.

Better safe than funding a free-spending politician's ego.

Totally agree Peter. The one thing people seem to forget when comparing rates is that IT enjoys a tax free allowance every year whereas CGT only gets an an allowance in the year of realisation so if the asset is held for 10 years that's 9 years without an allowance and only 1 year with! I would be happy for CGT to equate to the IT rate if CGT had a rate of inflation allowance i.e. it's only the real profit over the inflation rate that is taxed.

Isn't the current tax burden the highest it's ever been? Under a Tory decade and a half. (Was never any good at maths ).
I guess opinions come down to which tax they have to pay. CGT makes zero difference to my finances. If I had that amount of money I would be happy to contribute providing it's used well. And there's the issue. How well have the taxes of the last decade etc been used?

[sionascaig]

"Come with me to another country, far, far away, where things are a little bit different. In this fantastical land, young people can live and work in any country in Europe. You can swim in a river without catching Weil’s disease, or see your doctor.

Things aren’t perfect in this country, but 40,000 people rely on food banks instead of 3.1 million. People live half a year longer. Five-year-olds are taller.

Reader, you’ll never guess what. That country is Britain! Or it was until 2010, when a parade of five Conservative prime ministers, seven chancellors and eight home secretaries (two of whom were Suella Braverman) climbed behind the wheel of Britain’s temperamental but mostly reliable family hatchback, and drove it into a hedge."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng ... government

A sobering reminder of what can happen when you have idiots in charge....

Can still get 2% on a labour majority !

[Emmson]

I have decided where to cast my vote and it's a fringe candidate. Social Democratic Party who are not crackpots or extremists, having just perused their manifesto, they believe in what I believe in.

[greenmark]

FTSE up 0.95%. I think the market believes it's done and dusted. Uncertainty has left. Just the next 5 years to worry about now .

[Euler]

Isn't the current tax burden the highest it's ever been? Under a Tory decade and a half. (Was never any good at maths ).
I guess opinions come down to which tax they have to pay. CGT makes zero difference to my finances. If I had that amount of money I would be happy to contribute providing it's used well. And there's the issue. How well have the taxes of the last decade etc been used?

I'm thinking Covid may have had a hand to play there?

Personally, I've prefer debt levels to be as low as possible else you are basically working for whoever the bond holders are, and often that's foreign governments. Better to cut your cloth appropriately and spend all those interest payments on things that improve the quality of life for everybody. I haven't looked recently but the interest payments must be stupendous now.

The problem with CGT is say I buy a factory to start a business. Years later the business is struggling so I decided to close it. Inflation means it has a rebuild cost of £1.5m. According to the Goverment I have gained 500k when I haven't. Also I could have made a loss on my investment in starting that business, but I don't get a refund. So CGT should always be lower than income tax.

income tax is what you pay on a yielding asset and you can't have -ve income. But when you invest you run the real risk either in inflation or non inflationary terms of losing money, but you could still be taxed on it. It isn't worth investing in this environment.

I have large capital gains in the US on investments I have there. But the government wants me to pay them tax on those like income. No thanks, this isn't even money that has been made in the UK.

Can you see the problem with treated capital gains as income?