looking for a profitable staking plan using compounding

[Derek27]

I always have a good New Year's Day with Randwick & Cheltenham and then I calculate my projected compound profit for the year - it used to run into the billions when I had a smaller bank.

[nivi7]

This great new idea is just scaling up, but dressed up in a ridiculously restrictive regime.

Making 10% on your bank is a gamblers mentality. A trader can make 100% or more per month on a £1000 bank because trading is all about turnover. If you do have a target it needs to be on a % of turnover rather than % of bank. But either way targets are pointless as you'll find out when you start trading.

ok cool
what plan do you recommend?

[eightbo]

I always have a good New Year's Day with Randwick & Cheltenham and then I calculate my projected compound profit for the year - it used to run into the billions when I had a smaller bank.

[ShaunWhite]

ok cool
what plan do you recommend?

It would be usual to only have 1 or 2% of your bank at risk if you're starting out. So if you had a bank of £1000 your worst exit would be approx -£20. If you're a straight bettor that would mean a bet of £20 but when you're trading that could be a bet of £500 because you'll always close your position to get the vast majority of your initial stake back. Depending on what sport you trade you might make 40 trades a day spread over 20 different events (2 each). If you make an average of £1 per trade x 25 days a month that's £1000.

If each of those trades opened with a £100 bet, that's a turnover of 100 x 40 trades x 25 days = £100,000 a month. A £1000 gain per month would be a return on investment of 1%. When you're trading you can turnover much larger amounts than when you're straight betting because you have a much larger initial stake than the amount you have at risk. So with a £1000 bank you have a max loss per trade of maybe £20 whether or not your opening stake was £100, £200 or £500. Obviously the more you stake the more you're winning or losing per tick as the price moves. But always, always protect your working capital by never ever leaving a trade open and risking your entire stake. As you win your bank can grow but sports markets are quite small so there is a natural limit to your stake.

As for targets :
1. Try not to lose too much.
2. Then try to break even.
3. Then try to make a profit.
4. By the time you're making a profit you'll realise a target doesn't have much to do with what you actually win or lose. That amount is always just whatever you managed to make. If the internet goes down on day 1 and you accidentally make or lose £200 because you didn't have a closing trade, are you going to stop? No, you just do your best the next day.

Btw that - £20 was an example, max losses should be quite rare and on that scale £5 might be more normal. Your upside of course doesn't have that self imposed limit and could be considerably more. But it varies, and other people will have different ideas that are probably no less valid. The name of the game though is Avg win > Avg Loss. That's pretty much the only 'secret' to success.

[nivi7]

thanks for the reply m8,much appreciated

thing is you cant find 40 trades a day
i cant at least,maybe on Saturday and Sunday,but still they re too many


on football at least which i trade,most people do 1 til 6-7 trades per day and aiming for 1 unit profit or more

how can you reach the numbers you said by trading on football with odds around 2.0 with betting 20 gbp?

[ShaunWhite]

thanks for the reply m8,much appreciated

thing is you cant find 40 trades a day
i cant at least,maybe on Saturday and Sunday,but still they re too many


on football at least which i trade,most people do 1 til 6-7 trades per day and aiming for 1 unit profit or more

how can you reach the numbers you said by trading on football with odds around 2.0 with betting 20 gbp?

I didn't say you were betting £20, £20 is your maximum risk, not your stake.

I does depend on which sport you trade. 6 or 7 football trades a day is still about 200 trades per month.

So,
If you Back £250 @ 2.0 and then and Lay £255.10 @ 1.96. That would be a hedged (green) figure of +£5.10.
If the price had gone to 2.04, the lay bet would be for £245.10 and the hedged figure would be -£4.90.
But of course if the price had gone to 1.7 the lay bet would be for £294.12, and the hedged figure would be +£44.12

All of that might happen in the first 20mins...and then you might want to make a 2nd trade on the same match.

Have you done much trading, or have you been straight betting?
Trading is about looking for market moves, not the results.

Eg. You might have a game where the teams are very even, maybe H 2.8, D 2.8, A 2.8
But you know the Home team always starts games on the attack, so after 10mins the score might be 0-0 but the odds are now H 2.5, D 2.9, A 2.9
You can trade that price movement by backing a Home win at 2.8 and Laying it at 10mins @ 2.5


I don't really trade football so other people might have different ideas, but it's the same general idea in all markets.

[nivi7]

...

thanks for the reply mate

[nivi7]

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[CallumPerry]

What other kinds of discussion are you hoping to get mate?

It's pretty unanimous that people know a compound staking plan will not make profit by itself, money management is of course important but you need an 'edge' first before you optimise this with a staking plan of any sort. Shaun, as always, has explained some things very well. I'd genuinely love to see this thread steer somewhere positive and give me a lightbulb moment like so many others do so what direction would you like to steer it?

[gazuty]

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Do you have an edge?
In what sport?
What is the average matched volume in the events you trade/ value bet/ insert your strategy here?

[Derek27]

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Do you have an edge?
In what sport?
What is the average matched volume in the events you trade/ value bet/ insert your strategy here?

You'll be lucky to get an answer.

[nivi7]

so what direction would you like to steer it?

personally i d like to learn more staking plans

[Dallas]

You can't make a profit just with a staking plan, it has to be underpinned by an edge/profitable strategy.

Once you have one of those a staking plan may help maximize its potential

[Kai]

personally i d like to learn more staking plans

Trolling aside, are you sure you're actually trying to learn?

Because people have been trying to help you by asking very simple questions, like Gazuty twice already and others, but you keep ignoring their questions. You can only find more "staking plans" on the ladder itself, there's all sorts of clever staking that you can do but on the ladder itself, from the simple concepts of averaging to different stake sizes depending on how close your stakes are to the current price, but it doesn't look like you even use Bet Angel and trading software.

If you really want to learn something it may be more sensible to actually engage in a discussion with someone who offered help or advice, instead of instantly rejecting their opinion just because it's not what you wanted to hear in the first place. Just a thought.

[nivi7]

Do you have an edge?
In what sport?
What is the average matched volume in the events you trade/ value bet/ insert your strategy here?

i dont want to make this thread personal mate