HOW exactly are you doing money?

[Thisisgambling]

I think that guy is Jeff Waters

His writing style, the manner of the questions and already 13 posts after only registering yesterday

Ferru is dead, long live Thisisgambling

Ask our leader "angel" i am clearly having a swedish IP. So if jeff didnt well.

[Golfer]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... hed-streak

Prove that this is lucky.

[Thisisgambling]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... hed-streak

Prove that this is lucky.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falsifiability

[Dallas]

Your only attempt at trading seems to be by placing a back then lay bet blindly just from the info from one source then complaining that your losing money.

Your initial question was
"where do us guys get your edge, failure to answer means it this looks like its all a scam or shady"

Countless people have told you everyone finds there own edge through hard work and long hours, its taken many people myself included years to get here.

Your response then is to state that we dont have a edge and all the constant profits made year on year by people is just down to blind luck.

Its very obvious from your posts that if you are unable to do something first go that others have spent years working at rather than try and do something constructive about it your way is to go straight into denial and try to justify why its not possible.

Everyone who is sucessful on here and all those aspiring to be now and in the future have to be able to tick at least the following and anyone who can stands a chance of making it.

Committment
Determination
Patience
Open mind
Healthy state of mind

If they all dont already apply and you cant/wont work on them then trading along with a lot of other things just is nt for you

[LeTiss]

Do bookmakers make money?

Yes, of course they do, shitloads - that's because they have an edge over the punters

On an exchange, people bet and trade against each other.

Will there be losers?
Yes of course, lots of them, but that means that there are other people hoovering up at their expense.

Some people just fail to grasp the concept of trading on betting exchanges - they think it's just luck

[Arta700]

I'm not being funny Thisisgambling but why not trade for a couple of months which would give a clearer picture if it is all just down to luck ?

[Golfer]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... hed-streak

Prove that this is lucky.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falsifiability

Yes my statement was poorly phrased but that doesn't cut it, at least sit down and calculate the probability that it is all "luck".

[Thisisgambling]

I'm not being funny Thisisgambling but why not trade for a couple of months which would give a clearer picture if it is all just down to luck ?

I am actually doing this right now. I am down at very small amounts but i am doing this. BUT its pretty irrelevant really. I won't draw any conclusion on 1 example (me) even if i am going to win every day in this period.

Edit: I am also human and psychology applies to me too, so i would love it if there was an edge. But i have always put intellectual honsty higher.

[xitian]

Here's another analogy:

I tell you I can flip a coin 100 times and get heads 99 times. I proceed to do so. Do you:

A: Class me as very lucky!
B: Think the coin is bias
C: Think I have skill in flipping coins

Now surely you wouldn't say A? It's either gonna be B or C (which means I have an edge). And even though the theorists will tell you that a coin flip is 50/50, there's a lot of difference between theory and reality.

You can disregard evidence of an edge by calling profitability luck, but you can't use the same argument about consistent profitability. The likelihood of consistent wins is just too unlikely to be luck.

But in the same way that you can't expect a magician to tell you how he did his magic trick (which he's spent years learning), you can't expect successful traders to give away their edge. That doesn't mean people aren't helpful in this forum if you ask the right kind of questions though.

Are you serious??
IF this is serious am i out of words.

edit: I seriously don't even think most of you guys will understand the question if you don't have very basic knowledges, no offense.
There have been some good answers however and i would still appreciate some kind of studies which proves Fama wrong.

I don't see what part of that example wasn't serious.

If, as you claim, that all winners are profiting purely from luck then it means for every day the expected P&L is equally likely to be positive or negative, in other words a coin flip. Now if that's the case then I have shown over my trading career that I have flipped around 1960 heads out of 2000 tosses. I just can't see how luck can account for all of them.

While do you need an official research paper to disprove someone else's theory if there might be evidence in plain sight? Now I claim to know nothing about Fama's research and what it applies to, but I do know what profits and at what consistency I have generated it at.

[Thisisgambling]

Here's another analogy:

I tell you I can flip a coin 100 times and get heads 99 times. I proceed to do so. Do you:

A: Class me as very lucky!
B: Think the coin is bias
C: Think I have skill in flipping coins

Now surely you wouldn't say A? It's either gonna be B or C (which means I have an edge). And even though the theorists will tell you that a coin flip is 50/50, there's a lot of difference between theory and reality.

You can disregard evidence of an edge by calling profitability luck, but you can't use the same argument about consistent profitability. The likelihood of consistent wins is just too unlikely to be luck.


But in the same way that you can't expect a magician to tell you how he did his magic trick (which he's spent years learning), you can't expect successful traders to give away their edge. That doesn't mean people aren't helpful in this forum if you ask the right kind of questions though.

Are you serious??
IF this is serious am i out of words.

edit: I seriously don't even think most of you guys will understand the question if you don't have very basic knowledges, no offense.
There have been some good answers however and i would still appreciate some kind of studies which proves Fama wrong.

I don't see what part of that example wasn't serious.

If, as you claim, that all winners are profiting purely from luck then it means for every day the expected P&L is equally likely to be positive or negative, in other words a coin flip. Now if that's the case then I have shown over my trading career that I have flipped around 1960 heads out of 2000 tosses. I just can't see how luck can account for all of them.

While do you need an official research paper to disprove someone else's theory if there might be evidence in plain sight? Now I claim to know nothing about Fama's research and what it applies to, but I do know what profits and at what consistency I have generated it at.

Are you seriously saying that are drawing the conclusion that you have an skill when you get 99 tails of 100 at RANDOM coinflips do you have a skill?

[xitian]

Ok, I tried. I give up. This is harder than trading

[Thisisgambling]

Ok, I tried. I give up. This is harder than trading

Then just flip a coin and answer accordingly.

But seriously do you really think you have a real edge if you get 99/100 tails at random flips?
If you mean the outcome after a method do my answer differ.
In scraps where you actually can direct the outcome after hard training do you obviously have an edge. Watched a video on youtube about a team of people who tried to get an edge against the casinos and they learned how to roll the dice to get an edge.

[Euler]

Ok, I tried. I give up. This is harder than trading

At the end of the day we need people in the market that don't understand, that's how I came to terms with these sorts of conversations. If proof were ever needed the market wasn't random, here is some more. Like skill, stupidity is not equally distributed either. In fact I think there is a lot more of that in the market because it involves emotion.

[Thisisgambling]

Ok, I tried. I give up. This is harder than trading

At the end of the day we need people in the market that don't understand, that's how I came to terms with these sorts of conversations. If proof were ever needed the market wasn't random, here is some more. Like skill, stupidity is not equally distributed either. In fact I think there is a lot more of that in the market because it involves emotion.

That's really nice of you.
I understand that you after all sell a product but one could wish some answers from other users, i haven't got more than nonsens.

[Euler]

As I have said a many times before, I've made far more from using the product than selling it. Sometimes I wish I had just traded, as people couldn't level the 'he is just trying to sell software' line. But it's worn so thin now.

My equity curve is similar to Xitan's it's pretty much upward only, nothing to do with chance.