Summary
Joe Public decides that want to look at 1-0 HT to the home team in Portugal Segunda <
they go to a site and pull out 1-0 HT portugal segunda <
it is not going to show < pathways < times of goals < fightback metrics <
In play analysis from JonnyG Via the time of the opening goal / survival analysis / fightback analysis
keep an eye on wacker game < austria erste if 1-0 HT < because opening goal 0-10 minutes erste league and 1-0 HT game state >
low expectation of away team fighting back = survival analysis
Erste league in games where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band and 1-0 HT
last 26
54% over 2.5 goals
21-3-2 < home teams won 81%, 35% produced a goal 80 + minutes
GAME PATHWAY
7/26 1-0 FT
11/26 > 2-0 10-1-0
8/26 > 1-1 4-2-2
low expectation of away team fighting back = survival analysis
Erste league in games where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band and 1-0 HT
last 26
54% over 2.5 goals
21-3-2 < home teams won 81%, 35% produced a goal 80 + minutes
GAME PATHWAY
7/26 1-0 FT
11/26 > 2-0 10-1-0
8/26 > 1-1 4-2-2
FT 3-0 > that is very strong analysis > I have no idea who plays for Wacker and no idea what the SP was and no idea what the shot on target production was
Celta early away goal and > 1-1
on 40 minutes we have the following prices >
6/4 8/5 13/5
Posted on: January 22nd, 2017
In the table below I have added the last 50 games in La Liga where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 minutes and 1-1 half time , 88% ended over 2.5 goals and 44% ended over 3.5 goals .
29-11-10 home teams won 58%
GAME PATHWAY
6/50 1-1 FT
> 2-1 29/50 27-2-0 <> home teams won 93%
> 1-2 15/50 2-3-10 <> away teams won 67%
3/50 ended 2-2
on 40 minutes we have the following prices >
6/4 8/5 13/5
Posted on: January 22nd, 2017
In the table below I have added the last 50 games in La Liga where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 minutes and 1-1 half time , 88% ended over 2.5 goals and 44% ended over 3.5 goals .
29-11-10 home teams won 58%
GAME PATHWAY
6/50 1-1 FT
> 2-1 29/50 27-2-0 <> home teams won 93%
> 1-2 15/50 2-3-10 <> away teams won 67%
3/50 ended 2-2
Last edited by jonnyg on Fri Aug 25, 2017 10:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1'
Mateo Cassierra
1 - 0
12'
Robert Muric
2 - 0
52'
Robert Muric
3 - 0
57'
3 - 1
Perr Schuurs
60'
3 - 2
Lisandro Semedo
75'
Dennis Johnsen
4 - 2
in 2014 the racing post advised that the opening goal on 1 minute does not lead to a landslide of goals
in general it does
Mateo Cassierra
1 - 0
12'
Robert Muric
2 - 0
52'
Robert Muric
3 - 0
57'
3 - 1
Perr Schuurs
60'
3 - 2
Lisandro Semedo
75'
Dennis Johnsen
4 - 2
in 2014 the racing post advised that the opening goal on 1 minute does not lead to a landslide of goals
in general it does
Go Ahead Eagles
1 - 1
NEC View events More info
0 - 1
11' S. Braken
S. Hendriks 14'
1 - 1
this game not in line with expectation
Last 50 games in Holland Jupiler where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band and 1-1 HT
20-17-13 > away teams won 26%
1/0,26% = 3.85
42/50 over 2.5 goals = 84% , 1/0.84 = 1.19
50% over 3.5 goals = Evens
30% over 4.5 goals = 3.33
average goal production = 3.74
1 - 1
NEC View events More info
0 - 1
11' S. Braken
S. Hendriks 14'
1 - 1
this game not in line with expectation
Last 50 games in Holland Jupiler where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band and 1-1 HT
20-17-13 > away teams won 26%
1/0,26% = 3.85
42/50 over 2.5 goals = 84% , 1/0.84 = 1.19
50% over 3.5 goals = Evens
30% over 4.5 goals = 3.33
average goal production = 3.74
you will not find better free in play analysis on social media > I am a genius <
what is incredible > the betting industry in play algorithm does not factor the effect of the time of the opening goal added to game state
at HT no 3rd goal was offered at 5/2 < given events of first half = 85% + expectation of over 2.5 goals
> when you look at 1-1 Ht spreadsheets = useless if you dont factor which team opened the scoring and the time of the opening goal <
at HT no 3rd goal was offered at 5/2 < given events of first half = 85% + expectation of over 2.5 goals
> when you look at 1-1 Ht spreadsheets = useless if you dont factor which team opened the scoring and the time of the opening goal <
2-1jonnyg wrote: ↑Fri Aug 25, 2017 9:42 pmCelta early away goal and > 1-1
on 40 minutes we have the following prices >
6/4 8/5 13/5
Posted on: January 22nd, 2017
In the table below I have added the last 50 games in La Liga where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 minutes and 1-1 half time , 88% ended over 2.5 goals and 44% ended over 3.5 goals .
29-11-10 home teams won 58%
GAME PATHWAY
6/50 1-1 FT
> 2-1 29/50 27-2-0 <> home teams won 93%
> 1-2 15/50 2-3-10 <> away teams won 67%
3/50 ended 2-2
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