BTL (Back To Lay) Traders

[Iron]

Hi Zenyatta

I'm not (yet!) at the stage where I'm making a consistent profit, so I cannot comment.

Is there anyone here who makes a consistent profit but knows absolutely nothing about form, and thinks selling stakes are possibly something you use to kill vampires or to ward off door-to-door salesmen?

Jeff

Jeff, the margins of the trade colders are small enough that all their profits could actually be explained by tiny amounts of external info about form they slipped in, perhaps unconsciously... even just looking at TV pictures of the horses conveys slight information about form.

[andyfuller]

As soon as you start trading you will learn something about racing. It is impossible not to. Even if it is as simple as that horses go in stalls and if they play up they tend to drift for example.

I and I am sure the vast majority of pre race traders a lot of the time don't even look at the horses names. I am interested in the movement of the odds and not anything to do with the horse 90% of the time.

That is not to say you can't use form to trade, of course you can. But I think Peter highlighted earlier that he had no knowledge of horses when he started to trade. Of course Peter now knows quite a bit about horse racing as you pick things up as you go along when you trade thousands upon thousands of races each year. But I would hazard a guess that what drives most of his trades are the market and not anything to do with the horses.

[Human123]

i assume enzabella was doing pre-race trading as opposed to the back-to-lay trading.

I was looking through the timeform results and it seems most favorites around odds of 3-4.9 will "normally" hit evens which is close to the OPs 65%.

That might be something to look at?

[Online Trader]

I was looking through the timeform results and it seems most favorites around odds of 3-4.9 will "normally" hit evens which is close to the OPs 65%.

That might be something to look at?

I do not back anything below 4 or above 9

[to75ne]

Hi Zenyatta

I'm not (yet!) at the stage where I'm making a consistent profit, so I cannot comment.

Is there anyone here who makes a consistent profit but knows absolutely nothing about form, and thinks selling stakes are possibly something you use to kill vampires or to ward off door-to-door salesmen?

Jeff

Jeff, the margins of the trade colders are small enough that all their profits could actually be explained by tiny amounts of external info about form they slipped in, perhaps unconsciously... even just looking at TV pictures of the horses conveys slight information about form.

i have been trading for just over 5 years. im a big nat hunt fan but i have little or no interest in the flat. when i first started on betfair i was soley a layer (nat hunt only), and used to spend hours buried in the form book. i started running out the time needed to "study" form and sort of gradually stumbled into solely trading. i don’t use pictures for trading nat hunt races, as i would watch the races and not trade(just cant help it, same reason i don’t trade football), but i use pictures sometimes on the flat.

i don’t know anything worth knowing about flat racing. over the past 5 years i have made approx 10 to 15 percent more on the flat than i have over the jumps. i don’t trade significantly more flat races than jumps, i.e. i rarely do the evening sandbaggers or the evening summer races.

i believe that i have done better over the long term on the flat is down to my lack of interest in it (apart from the classic, antics of fallon etc). i don’t get distracted by any opinions i may have on the jumps about, going coarse, form etc. just watching the markets.

i firmly believe that you don’t need any underlying knowledge to trade horse races, in fact i think you would be better off by not having any pre-conceived notions getting in the way of how the market moves/reacts. much better to learn how markets move and why. how people behave i.e. over react, freeze with fear, panic, and become over confident.

[enzabella2009]

IT`S ALL PRE RACE TRADINGS. I never keep bets in play.
This time I had £100 bankroll.
Horse Racing / Kelso 28th Apr : 2m6f Hcap Chs 28-Apr-10 18:20 28-Apr-10 18:29 £1.19
Horse Racing / Ascot 28th Apr : 1m Hcap 28-Apr-10 17:40 28-Apr-10 17:50 £1.59
Horse Racing / Sthl 28th Apr : 2m NHF 28-Apr-10 17:25 28-Apr-10 17:30 £-0.46
Horse Racing / Ponte 28th Apr : 1m2f Hcap 28-Apr-10 17:15 28-Apr-10 17:20 £2.49
Horse Racing / Ascot 28th Apr : 1m Hcap 28-Apr-10 17:05 28-Apr-10 17:13 £-5.64
Horse Racing / Sthl 28th Apr : 2m Sell Hrd 28-Apr-10 16:50 28-Apr-10 16:55 £1.05
Horse Racing / Ponte 28th Apr : 1m4f Hcap 28-Apr-10 16:40 28-Apr-10 16:45 £2.65
Horse Racing / Ascot 28th Apr : 6f Listed 28-Apr-10 16:30 28-Apr-10 16:37 £4.02
Horse Racing / Sthl 28th Apr : 2m Hcap Hrd 28-Apr-10 16:15 28-Apr-10 16:20 £2.05
Horse Racing / Ponte 28th Apr : 1m2f Hcap 28-Apr-10 16:05 28-Apr-10 16:10 £0.83
Horse Racing / Ascot 28th Apr : 2m Grp3 28-Apr-10 15:55 28-Apr-10 16:04 £4.26
Horse Racing / Sthl 28th Apr : 2m Mdn Hrd 28-Apr-10 15:40 28-Apr-10 15:48 £4.82
Horse Racing / Ponte 28th Apr : 1m Hcap 28-Apr-10 15:30 28-Apr-10 15:34 £-0.63
Horse Racing / Ascot 28th Apr : 1m Listed 28-Apr-10 15:20 28-Apr-10 15:28 £5.63
Horse Racing / Sthl 28th Apr : 3m2f Hcap Chs 28-Apr-10 15:05 28-Apr-10 15:18 £0.97
Horse Racing / Ponte 28th Apr : 1m2f Mdn Stks 28-Apr-10 14:55 28-Apr-10 15:01 £1.30
Horse Racing / Ascot 28th Apr : 1m Cond Stks 28-Apr-10 14:45 28-Apr-10 14:51 £3.57
Horse Racing / Sthl 28th Apr : 2m Hcap Chs 28-Apr-10 14:30 28-Apr-10 14:37 £4.16
Horse Racing / Ponte 28th Apr : 5f Mdn Stks 28-Apr-10 14:20 28-Apr-10 14:27 £-7.67
Horse Racing / Ascot 28th Apr : 5f Cond Stks 28-Apr-10 14:10 28-Apr-10 14:16 £0.54

[lewismbet]

Just to throw my experience in.

I have looked at manual trading however I do not have the time to invest in learning how to make it profitable as I am currently at University.

I have however created a bot which makes consistent profits, albeit not massive, by scalping the markets. I know nothing about horse racing and my bot knows even less. Swing trading I would expect requires more knowledge about horse racing however I think you would need to know more about the mechanics of betting in terms of likely gambles, money entering market etc rather than 'I think this will go close today' as your sentiment may be right however unless it is shared by others it is useless for trading [not to a value punter].

[andyfuller]

Have a read of this blog from start to finish it shows what someone with a lot of knowledge of racing form thought would be a good thing but ended up turning into a bad thing and causing him to totally change his approach as he found his form opinion disagreed with the market far too much but even though he was often right in how the race played out it made no difference to his pre race trading as the market didn't see it as he did:

http://theexperiment-self-indulgentbull ... gspot.com/

[JollyGreen]

The problem you always have with form analysis in conjunction with trading is that they won't always go hand in hand.

The only way to make money from straight punting is to have an edge that offers you value. More often than not, that means differing from the majority of punters. If your horse is shortening then someone else is agreeing with you and that isn't a good thing. If you think you have found the right horse then you don't really want the rest of the punting world agreeing with you. If they do then the odds will be reduced considerably and over time this will erode your edge and you will go from being in front to being behind. It's the same with any kind of betting, once the cat is out of the bag you start to lose money.

That may seem alien to most people but believe me it is true. If you can find the "crowd" horse then you can trade the price in but that horse may not actually win. If you find the "quiet" horse from unique analysis then the odds may well drift but the horse may win. So you therefore have to find your horse and trade what the market shows you - steam or drift! Leave the profit on the horse and hope for the win or trade out in running. What you cannot do is hope to find your "quiet" horse and expect the price to shorten - that is not the way to go about it.

If you go back to the Cheltenham Festival, I gave horses that weren't supposedly fancied. Big Zeb, Imperial Commander etc. They weren't the favourites and Big Zeb in particular did drift. The same was true of Sizing Europe who won at a decent price. I cringe if I hear the TV pundits agreeing with me because I know my edge is gone. If I spend a few hours on a Friday analysing the next day's racing the last thing I want to see is Pricewise putting up the same horse. Tom Segal makes a profit by finding the "quiet" horse and aiming for the larger value prices. I haven't done the stats but I would suggest you would probably struggle to make a profit if you took the SP on his selections despite him having plenty of winners.

You will notice that most punters will always bet first rather than lay. I think the OP on here said it suits his style which is fine. If you speak to punters you will find that almost all of them will bet first. It is ingrained in the psyche of most punters. However if you assume the odds are correct then backing 100 horses at 10/1 will return the same profit as laying those same 100 horses at 10/1. Despite this you will always have people who will not believe that and will argue all day with you about that being nonsense.

A few years back I had a similar system where I would select a front runner and simply collect every time. As time progressed the market adjusted to it and slowly the margins became smaller as other people wised up to what was happening. There was a time when any front runner would work excluding horses 100-250. These days the market is smarter so they tend to ignore certain trailblazers so you have to be more selective with your choice of front runner.

So mixing trading and punting is okay but there are times when you have to do the opposite of what you expect in terms of odds movement. Unfortunately some people I know (not on here) find it very hard to accept their fancied horse is drifting so they leave it alone only to watch it hose in!!

[Iron]

However if you assume the odds are correct then backing 100 horses at 10/1 will return the same profit as laying those same 100 horses at 10/1.

True, but one you introduce value into the equation, then it gets a little more complicated.

I'd much rather back 1000 horses at 50-1 that should be 25-1 than lay 1000 horses at 25-1 whose true odds are 50-1! The first approach will give you about 90% ROI long-term (assuming 5% commission to Betfair). The latter will make under 2% ROI! Plus, in the first instance, your total risk for stakes of a tenner is a grand; in the latter, it's 24 grand!

Jeff

[Iron]

Do you think it's possible to spot market over-reactions in-play without access to live pictures?

For example, I've noticed that often the first horse to shorten considerably doesn't win. Perhaps the market sees it way out front near the finishing line, and assumes it's home and hosed, without realising that it's knackered and another horse is about to come from nowhere and overtake it.

Jeff

A few years back I had a similar system where I would select a front runner and simply collect every time. As time progressed the market adjusted to it and slowly the margins became smaller as other people wised up to what was happening. There was a time when any front runner would work excluding horses 100-250. These days the market is smarter so they tend to ignore certain trailblazers so you have to be more selective with your choice of front runner.

[JollyGreen]

However if you assume the odds are correct then backing 100 horses at 10/1 will return the same profit as laying those same 100 horses at 10/1.

True, but one you introduce value into the equation, then it gets a little more complicated.

I'd much rather back 1000 horses at 50-1 that should be 25-1 than lay 1000 horses at 25-1 whose true odds are 50-1! The first approach will give you about 90% ROI long-term (assuming 5% commission to Betfair). The latter will make under 2% ROI! Plus, in the first instance, your total risk for stakes of a tenner is a grand; in the latter, it's 24 grand!

Jeff

You are not reading what I wrote. I said assuming the odds are correct. You now want to add the elusive "value" into the equation which is a totally different suject. Your ROI figures are totally subjective based on your own point of view but I am talking about correct figures where people will always take the back option rather than the lay.

[Predicton]

I'm with you on value JG. Invariably the shorter priced "talking horses" do not offer value, in the long run (the price/strike rate ratio being too low) but bookies and Betfair players alike do overlay horses, in some circumstances. In decades of study, I only ever devised one profitable method of backing and for that to be successful the horses I back must be priced at no less than 14/1. I've never been able to make short priced horses pay, although that's not to say that some with more brains than I can't,

cheers, P

[Iron]

Actually, they are based on a spreadsheet I wrote, based on what is likely to happen over 1,000 bets/lays.

BACK

Current 50.0
TRUE 25.0

Unsuccessful bets £960.00
Successful bets £1,862.00
Loss from unsuccessful bets -£960.00
Profit from successful bets £1,862.00
P & L £902.00
Amount risked £1,000.00
% profit 90.20%

LAYS

Current 25.0
TRUE 50.0

Successful lays £931.00
Unsuccessful bets £480.00
Loss from unsuccessful bets -£480.00
Profit from successful bets £931.00
P & L £451.00
Amount risked £24,000.00
% profit 1.88%

Your ROI figures are totally subjective based on your own point of view but I am talking about correct figures where people will always take the back option rather than the lay.

[andyfuller]

Do you think it's possible to spot market over-reactions in-play without access to live pictures?

Yes and I have seen trading inplay done very successfully without pictures, audio etc. just the Betfair numbers on the screen.