Next Tory Leader & May's Exit Date (2019)

[Dallas]

Currency traders are having a field day today with the chances of a no deal Brexit now increasing

[Naffman]

Currency traders are having a field day today with the chances of a no deal Brexit now increasing

The pound has rallied - think traders were fed up of May's awful attempts to get a deal through for the millionth time

Watching May you'd think she was a GOT character, doing anything to cling onto power

[Archangel]

Great volatility in both the Sterling and Euro currency futures , since late last year really. Premium selling in there has been profitable even though over the volatilty in the market has been on the wane since the new year, VIX at around 15 or 16 is ok but not great

[firlandsfarm]

But which one is the Putin candidate? The media will nominate someone … they could start a book on that

[Archangel]

But which one is the Putin candidate? The media will nominate someone … they could start a book on that

Has to be Boris right

[sionascaig]

Came across this saying Tory leadership rules may be changing (balloting of members bit)...

"The current rules dictate that two candidates should end up on the ballot paper, but PoliticsHome reported this week that those rules could be changed to allow four on the ballot"

[firlandsfarm]

"... but PoliticsHome reported this week that those rules could be changed to allow four on the ballot"

Wow, that's a surprise, a politics commentator saying "could"!!!

[wearthefoxhat]

Currency traders are having a field day today with the chances of a no deal Brexit now increasing

I wonder if this includes Bitcoin too?

Bitcoin.PNG

[sionascaig]

==> Theresa May confirms she will resign as leader of the Conservative Party on June 7

Exchange Market: EXIT Dates - Theresa May 3 - Rules
When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?

Exchange currently has July 1.45 & June 3.4?

Are people assuming this is a "cease to be PM" market as opposed to leader of the conservative party... Am I missing something?

[Dallas]

==> Theresa May confirms she will resign as leader of the Conservative Party on June 7

Exchange Market: EXIT Dates - Theresa May 3 - Rules
When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?

Exchange currently has July 1.45 & June 3.4?

Are people assuming this is a "cease to be PM" market as opposed to leader of the conservative party... Am I missing something?

I've understood these markets (and treating this one) as the date a new leader is elected and she is no longer PM - basically, until she leaves number 10

That could perhaps explain the massive overreaction we've seen twice this week when it was reported she'd likely resign on 10th, then when she announced it would be 7th

[sionascaig]

==> Theresa May confirms she will resign as leader of the Conservative Party on June 7

Exchange Market: EXIT Dates - Theresa May 3 - Rules
When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?

Exchange currently has July 1.45 & June 3.4?

Are people assuming this is a "cease to be PM" market as opposed to leader of the conservative party... Am I missing something?

I've understood these markets (and treating this one) as the date a new leader is elected and she is no longer PM - basically, until she leaves number 10

That could perhaps explain the massive overreaction we've seen twice this week when it was reported she'd likely resign on 10th, then when she announced it would be 7th

I wonder if its the case that if she resigns as stated on the 7th the effective date of leaving is the appointment of a new leader... Been looking through the conservative rule book but it doesn't explicitly state that.... (and seems a bit unlikely to me)...

Based on the stated betfair rules for this market sounds as if you have a very good chance of winning any dispute if the market doesn't close on the official date of resignation... Makes me a bit nervous of further involvement without more certainty (

[spreadbetting]

When people usually resign they're expected to work out their notice until a replacement is found. I wouldn't treat her announcement of intention to resign in June as being the same as the end of her premiership. Until she's kicked out or replaced she'll still be PM as far as I'd assume.

[sionascaig]

When people usually resign they're expected to work out their notice until a replacement is found. I wouldn't treat her announcement of intention to resign in June as being the same as the end of her premiership. Until she's kicked out or replaced she'll still be PM as far as I'd assume.

The point is the market explicitly states its about leadership of the conservative party (which hasn't got anything to do with being PM ), but take your point about working out notice... I was assuming once she resigns as leader, the conservative executive takes over control of the party till new leader appointed but not a lot of information available on the detail of this...

[Dallas]

When people usually resign they're expected to work out their notice until a replacement is found. I wouldn't treat her announcement of intention to resign in June as being the same as the end of her premiership. Until she's kicked out or replaced she'll still be PM as far as I'd assume.

The point is the market explicitly states its about leadership of the conservative party (which hasn't got anything to do with being PM ), but take your point about working out notice... I was assuming once she resigns as leader, the conservative executive takes over control of the party till new leader appointed but not a lot of information available on the detail of this...

Its a weird process after the actual resignation, she'll still be there and have daily duties etc but won't do anything major as anything she does do could be undone by the incoming PM

[spreadbetting]

When people usually resign they're expected to work out their notice until a replacement is found. I wouldn't treat her announcement of intention to resign in June as being the same as the end of her premiership. Until she's kicked out or replaced she'll still be PM as far as I'd assume.

The point is the market explicitly states its about leadership of the conservative party (which hasn't got anything to do with being PM ), but take your point about working out notice... I was assuming once she resigns as leader, the conservative executive takes over control of the party till new leader appointed but not a lot of information available on the detail of this...

I know what you're saying but there's no way I can see her being PM and not the leader of the conservatives it would be a ridiculous situation. Again I'd treat her statement as an intent to resign and only be replaced when a new leader is appointed. If you look at previous leaders of the Conservative party their leaving date always coincides with the start date of the new leader. I doubt this situation will be any different.

Edit: Just had a look at the wiki page and there was a vacant period when John Major quit in 1995 so the party leadership was vacant for a month. Be interesting to see how that market gets settled if there is a gap between 7 June and a new leader, you can be pretty sure they're be lots of moaning either way