The Open Golf Championship 2025

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callum1622
Posts: 46
Joined: Fri Jul 09, 2021 12:05 am

Im in a bit of a hole laying Scottie here. Think I'll leave it? Lots of golf left but not looking good
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henbet22
Posts: 546
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2017 4:28 pm

He tends to front run like Frankel too.
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henbet22
Posts: 546
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2017 4:28 pm

He has turned up the wick.
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TupleVision
Posts: 114
Joined: Wed Feb 12, 2025 12:19 pm

callum1622 wrote: ↑
Sat Jul 19, 2025 5:58 pm
 Im in a bit of a hole laying Scottie here. Think I'll leave it? Lots of golf left but not looking good
Not trading advice in any way...

He still looks a little low with some tricky holes coming up and the wind direction on the back 9 doesn't suit his game. He can't go much lower so might pay to reassess at the end of this round.
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henbet22
Posts: 546
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2017 4:28 pm

I mean there is a lot of golf left but he is still backable imo but the value of your investment may go up and down and you may not get any of your money etc
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callum1622
Posts: 46
Joined: Fri Jul 09, 2021 12:05 am

Yeah I'll leave it. Lazy "trade" really. Feels more like a bet. Hoping for a hiccup with no stats to prove doesn't seem like the most profitable strategy
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henbet22
Posts: 546
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2017 4:28 pm

You will need a double from him today really if you left it as it is. But then I am a backer not a layer so I am not the best person to advise on laying though it's the other side of the same coin... etc
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henbet22
Posts: 546
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2017 4:28 pm

There you go. Wobble.
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TupleVision
Posts: 114
Joined: Wed Feb 12, 2025 12:19 pm

callum1622 wrote: ↑
Sat Jul 19, 2025 6:05 pm
 Yeah I'll leave it. Lazy "trade" really. Feels more like a bet. Hoping for a hiccup with no stats to prove doesn't seem like the most profitable strategy
It's how accurately you can predict what his true odds should be whether it pays to leave it or not.

Personally it's why I always try to exit at just above fair odds where possible rather than leave value bets in the market.
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TupleVision
Posts: 114
Joined: Wed Feb 12, 2025 12:19 pm

henbet22 wrote: ↑
Sat Jul 19, 2025 6:06 pm
 You will need a double from him today really if you left it as it is. But then I am a backer not a layer so I am not the best person to advise on laying though it's the other side of the same coin... etc
We're probably the other side of each others bets quite a lot I'd imagine.
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henbet22
Posts: 546
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2017 4:28 pm

Nah. Just a hobby on the exchange as I can fiddle too much pressing buttons. Make my money elsewhere on bet and forget. ie can't fiddle once the money is down.
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henbet22
Posts: 546
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2017 4:28 pm

Would be worthwhile to pay someone to execute my reads on Betfair or maybe automation..
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Euler
Posts: 26417
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm

Weather has been too good today for any major slips.
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TupleVision
Posts: 114
Joined: Wed Feb 12, 2025 12:19 pm

Absolute machine
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Euler
Posts: 26417
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm

My stats say a 4 shot leader into the last day should be priced around 1.20
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