Trading on Betfair for a living

[oddstrader]

just do the opposite to what your doing now, sorted!

[Zenyatta]

just do the opposite to what your doing now, sorted!

Doesn't work mate, reversed stupidly is not intelligence unfortunately. At some point I'll have to attend a remedial Peter Webb trading course to find out what the hell I'm doing wrong. For now I have little choice but to stick to punting.

[oddstrader]

i know sorry just messing, but re a refresher course that is a very good exercise i did it and got a lot out of it second time around, i guess i knew where i needed refining and got the answers i needed.

[sweetybt]

Nobody has answered the question.

If we consider the avergae UK wage is about 24K before tax, how many people on betfair and betdaq make 18k a year. (for the past two years to make it more consistant)

826

[lilgreenback]

Or

[quote="freddy"]And to anyone who is slightly ashamed of trading on Betfair to make a living.

Then Why not Buy a old wreck of a house and do it up and call yourself a property developer.

or Buy some cars and call yourself a car dealer

sell a few things on ebay

Buy a load of rifles, explosives and ammunition sell them to a poor country, who needs water, food and baby milk and call yourself BAE systems.

[trader1978]

Well what can I say, thank you to everyone for your response to my post. The reason I posted it was to get a reaction and see the general consensus of the long term success rate amongst other traders. Its been amazing to read and to see the direction the topic has lead to, it's exactly the kind of thing I was after to be honest.

I myself have been quite successful trading for a while now and I was just curious to other peoples experiences. I can see a point to every ones replies and have come to the conclusion that success can only be evaluated by each persons individual needs in everyday life. I myself wouldn't have a problem telling other people how I make my living if I was trading full time. A thing I very much plan to do in the future. At the end of the day we still put the hours into what we do so its no different to any other job in my mind. I'm selling my business soon to take some time out from the everyday grind and extreme stress that has prevented me being able to live my life for too long and see it as the perfect opportunity to try and take my trading to the next level and make it a long term living.

Its been a pleasure to read all your responses and I hope to read more.

Good luck everyone, I look forward to further discussions with you all

[Iron]

Hi Zenyatta

Do you think that you might be over-analyzing your trading? In my experience, when your head is full of different theories, it can be hard to see the wood from the trees.

Also, could you be over-trading, rather than just concentrating on simple. clear-cut opportunities?

Why not record a video of yourself trading and stick it on YouTube, so forum members can give their feedback? The shift required to become profitable might be much smaller than you think...

Jeff

Well,

Spare a thought for poor folks like me, who still can't make a penny out of trading, even after staring at the markets non-stop for over a year.

I've followed all advice exactly, trying to let profits run and stop loss on losses, but this only causes me to lose even faster, stop loss is the fastest way to the poor house ever devised for me. I've tried following trends... lose, lose, lose, I've tried opposing trends... lose, lose, lose, I've tried all sorts of stop loss... which causes me to lose 10x as fast, I've tried reversing what I'm doing and doing the opposite, unfortunately reversed stupidly is not intelligence, so lose, lose lose again. I find Peter Webb hilarious.. he says I can't miss in the clear markets, but everywhere I go I just go on losing losing losing with frightening efficiency. Not a single penny.

The few winning methods I have are not trading at all really, they are more punting, if I make an exhaustive form analysis and enter a few selected markets far in advance I am profitable in those instances, and also, I have a few successful In-Play tricks that are profitable, but again, these things are not really trading, more punting.

[Iron]

I think how long it takes depends largely on your psychological approach.

If you can find a simple technique, and do nothing but practise using it, initially with small stakes, then I imagine the process can be shortened considerably.

BTW, if you haven't read Trading In The Zone by Mark Douglas, I'd recommend it. This is a recording of a talk by Mr Douglas: http://www.woodiescciclub.com/Lectures/ ... /index.htm.

Jeff

It takes stages experianceing strategies (some good some silly) and at least two years to make constant gains. This all collates to good entryand exit points, disipline and paitence, i look at my P&L every end of the month and theres always enough there to fund certain things that my daytime finance usually does

[blakey1271]

Well,

Spare a thought for poor folks like me, who still can't make a penny out of trading, even after staring at the markets non-stop for over a year.

I've followed all advice exactly, trying to let profits run and stop loss on losses, but this only causes me to lose even faster, stop loss is the fastest way to the poor house ever devised for me. I've tried following trends... lose, lose, lose, I've tried opposing trends... lose, lose, lose, I've tried all sorts of stop loss... which causes me to lose 10x as fast, I've tried reversing what I'm doing and doing the opposite, unfortunately reversed stupidly is not intelligence, so lose, lose lose again. I find Peter Webb hilarious.. he says I can't miss in the clear markets, but everywhere I go I just go on losing losing losing with frightening efficiency. Not a single penny.

The few winning methods I have are not trading at all really, they are more punting, if I make an exhaustive form analysis and enter a few selected markets far in advance I am profitable in those instances, and also, I have a few successful In-Play tricks that are profitable, but again, these things are not really trading, more punting.

"Been there and done that!!!"
Im not going into some silly Psychology lesson but try looking into your mindset! A positive mind will aid your ability to trade. With organised planning and record keeping you are able to track your good and bad trades, thus seeing the issues that surround failure. Believe in your ability to trade successfully with desire and persistence of a positive mind and you will realise the rewards.
"Well it works for me"

[Predicton]

Hi Z,

I've followed all advice exactly, trying to let profits run and stop loss on losses, but this only causes me to lose even faster, stop loss is the fastest way to the poor house ever devised for me. I've tried following trends... lose, lose, lose, I've tried opposing trends... lose, lose, lose, I've tried all sorts of stop loss... which causes me to lose 10x as fast, I've tried reversing what I'm doing and doing the opposite, unfortunately reversed stupidly is not intelligence, so lose, lose lose again. I find Peter Webb hilarious.. he says I can't miss in the clear markets, but everywhere I go I just go on losing losing losing with frightening efficiency. Not a single penny.

May I ask if your trading efforts revolve around favourites?

Cheers, P

[davy]

Hi Guys

Been off line for past eight weeks, underground fault, just got it back.

Have to say this is a fascinating thread, just read it from end to end. If I can add my two pennyworth, IMO, it matters not where your money comes from work, business, inheritance, lottery or trading, the have not’s will always envy the have’s.

I have been in business for 30 years (not as good a trader as some of you guy’s). when I first began in business, third year, I had a deal go bad on me, customer went into liquidation, cost me almost seven grand. As my average deal only made £500 to £800 profit, it was a hell of a lot of money and it upset me.

I was talking to a cousin I was very close to when she said, “ well, don’t say I didn’t warn you. Perhaps now you’ll stop being so silly and get a proper job” I replied “ what, and make 300 quid a week like you. I may have lost on this one, but I will get it back, and still pay myself five times what you bring home whilst I’m doing it”

My point is, she knew how much I was earning, she didn’t care about my loss or if I would get it back or not, she just wanted me on the same level she was on.

If your friends envy your wealth, they are not real friends nor are they worth having as friends.

Make your money guy’s, spend it as you wish and enjoy it. Believe me, the have not’s will be the first in the queue at the flash car showroom if they ever get their hands on enough money. They won’t care what you think.

All the best and good luck everyone.

[aleksandar]

Hi all,

Very interesting thread.

Nobody has answered the question.

If we consider the avergae UK wage is about 24K before tax, how many people on betfair and betdaq make 18k a year. (for the past two years to make it more consistant)

826

Is there any betfair's official statistics regarding these kind of numbers?

[Zenyatta]

Hi Zenyatta

Do you think that you might be over-analyzing your trading? In my experience, when your head is full of different theories, it can be hard to see the wood from the trees.

Also, could you be over-trading, rather than just concentrating on simple. clear-cut opportunities?

Why not record a video of yourself trading and stick it on YouTube, so forum members can give their feedback? The shift required to become profitable might be much smaller than you think...

Jeff

I admire your never ending optimism Jeff. Sounds like you're in the same boat as me at the moment, having some success with punting but not really able to turn a profit with the trading.

I do wonder specifically how many people are actually successful traders for the UK horse race trading vey near the off (5-10 minutes before off). I suspect not many, and fear this particular niche might be too tough for most people.

[Iron]

Thanks, and that's correct.

However, hopefully that will change soon! I think the challenge is mainly psychological rather than technical. When I'm in a focused, positive frame of mind, trading seems quite easy. But the moment you get complacent, or make decisions based on what you want rather than what the market wants, the market can hurt you badly!

Jeff

I admire your never ending optimism Jeff. Sounds like you're in the same boat as me at the moment, having some success with punting but not really able to turn a profit with the trading.

[mugsgame]

I do wonder specifically how many people are actually successful traders for the UK horse race trading vey near the off (5-10 minutes before off). I suspect not many, and fear this particular niche might be too tough for most people.

This is without doubt the one of the most volatile and unpredictable form of trading, it seems it what every newbie wants to do. Is this a mistake? If anyone is struggling trying to crack this is it worth taking a step back and maybe trying something else to trade on?

I don't know if this is any use to anyone, but this is my style of trading pre race and a few pointers that I use.

Try to be more selective about which races to trade.I know of many who go from race to race like a loony. You can make a few quid race after race and on the last race lose the whole days earnings and some. Look at trading less races that have a good "shape". If you have the patience (which is the most important and most overlooked aspect of trading IMHO) you can watch 20 races and then trade 1 and win a days wages.
A suggestion for those struggling is maybe find a race where the market thinks it is a 2 horse race. I'll set up a fictitious race.
The prices are 2.02, 2.76, 40, 44, 50+ the rest (another 6 runners).
You will find 2 or 3 races a day like this. You can pretty much forget the rags, although you need to keep and eye out in case 1 moves in significantly. So concentrate at the 2 at the head of the market. There are 2 scenarios here.
1) 1 or more outsiders move in and not a lot happens at the head of the market except a small drift.
2) 1 of the favs moves in which means..............yes that's right! The other moves out. The trick is waiting until that happens then jumping on the gravy train to untold wealth.

Try to get a grasp of how a market works, that is fundamentally the most important thing you need to learn. An efficient market is at 100%, the way this is calculated is by dividing 100/the odds. So a runner trading at 2.0 would be 100/2 =50% of the book. (remember the book adds up to 100) that means the rest of the field will add up to 50%.
If 1 runner is 50% of the book and the other is 36% (100/2,76) that means that 86% of the book is concentrated on 2 runners. They dominate the market and another runner would have to move a huge amount to impact these 2 prices. Which leaves us to concentrate on 2. What you are looking for next is a sign that something is going to happen, like i said it always will. So what are the signs?

Look at the range of prices that the runner has been trading at, if you look at the ladder you will be able to see this. The critical points are the bottom and top (resistance points) When it gets there something will happen, if it "breaks through" then it will almost certainly go much further. If it doesn't then it will "bounce". It rarely just sits at the end of the trading range dormant. What usually influences this is the other horses. Remember what happens to 1 has to effect all the others, the one most likely to be effected is the next shortest price runner (2nd fav in this case)
A good trade would be if the fav has reached the bottom of it's range, which means punters are reluctant to take a lower price that this, and the 2nd fav if near the top end of it's trading range, which means punters are reluctant to LAY a bigger price. If the fav were to hit the bottom and "bounce" the 2nd fav would stream in, this will gather momentum, don't be greedy and don't use a stop loss. It is not unusual for the prices to jump around. It is the medium term trend (swing) you are trying to capture.

With practice, patience and enough matched you can make a living trading 1or 2 races a day.
This is simplistic and there are things that can go wrong. Watch the market and try to understand what the market is doing. See how the movement of 1 runner effects the others and in what proportion. This is KEY. Some use the excellent graphs BA has. For me all I use if the BF market graph within BA with a 10 second refresh, the ladder tab with both horses on, and TELETEXT live shows. Don't over think it, don't over complicate it. It really isn't rocket science, and that's the main issue for most I fear. Take a step back, use low stakes to practice. Trading horses at odds on a 10 tick wrong decision will cost you a fiver (to give it some perspective). Before you make every trade you need to set a point that you will exit, don't set this too tight. A 2 or 3 tick's is no good. But you need an escape route. Letting it go and hoping it will come back or even worse letting it go in play is trading suicide and amateur. Don't do it!

If you spend enough time watching the markets and understanding what's happening you will crack it eventually.

I have talked a fair bit about perspective, and here is something to think about. Good traders will earn more that a doctor does (which is frankly disgusts me), that doctor spent maybe 6 or 7 years learning his trade. It doesn't take that long to learn to trade, but you need to put the hours in for sure. The other thing is that doctor didn't get to operate on a patient after a few days did he? He learnt the procedure and maybe practiced it in the classroom lots and lots of times, until he became so good at it when he did finally have a patient on the operating table in front of him, he had the skill and confidence to do the business.
There are no half measures here. To a certain extent, if you can trade with £50 you can trade with £100 or £1000 (as long as the market is liquid enough) The level of skill is exactly the same, the reason you entered and exited the market should be the same. Once you can effectively trade on 2 runner markets like this and your confidence and experience grows, then more complex markets can be tackled.

The main problem with this is if you have a limited time to trade on your day off from work, sitting there all afternoon and not making any trades is tough, and the discipline that requires is rare to find. But what is better, sitting there and not losing half the wages you have worked so hard for or feeling a bit frustrated but living to fight another day. My priory is not to LOSE and PROTECT my bank at all costs. The rest comes I promise.

Summary:
1) Keep it simple
2) Be patient
3) Have realistic expectations
4) Be patient
5) Understand the market
6) Have a reason to enter the trade and a reason to exit it
7) Have an escape route planned, and stick to it
8) Be patient
and finally........ Be patient

Does this make sense to anyone?

Disclaimer:
I don't have all the answers, the way I trade suites me and my attitude to risk. It works for me but it may not work for you. Take out the bits that make sense and discard the rest. Eventually you will form you own style. There is no "holy grail" and there is no easy road to Betfair nirvana. I wish you all well.