Very interested in achieving the following..
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elcapitain
- Posts: 45
- Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 4:01 pm
so its a good idea to quickly build a betting bank?
Perhaps you missed this bit:
'465 occasions £1,000+ bets were placed
40 occasions £10,000+ bets were placed
6 occasions £50,000+ bets were placed
2 occasions £100,000+ bets were placed'
Perhaps you are comfortable risking £100,000 to make £50, and have the skill needed to put that kind of money through the market without causing the price to skyrocket, but I imagine most people would be more comfortable with more conservative approaches...
You're not related to Nick Leeson, are you?
Jeff
'465 occasions £1,000+ bets were placed
40 occasions £10,000+ bets were placed
6 occasions £50,000+ bets were placed
2 occasions £100,000+ bets were placed'
Perhaps you are comfortable risking £100,000 to make £50, and have the skill needed to put that kind of money through the market without causing the price to skyrocket, but I imagine most people would be more comfortable with more conservative approaches...
You're not related to Nick Leeson, are you?
Jeff
elcapitain wrote:so its a good idea to quickly build a betting bank?
That's a brilliant piece of information you've unearthed there, Jeff
Just highlights why it's a failed system - it's not just a case of favourites going through the card every 12-24 months, but in reality the system fails more often than that because of the ludicrous stakes being placed on the 5th or 6th selection, and that's assuming the whole amount gets matched
Just highlights why it's a failed system - it's not just a case of favourites going through the card every 12-24 months, but in reality the system fails more often than that because of the ludicrous stakes being placed on the 5th or 6th selection, and that's assuming the whole amount gets matched
Thanks LeTiss - I think that's twice you've complimented me this week! You feeling OK?LeTiss 4pm wrote:That's a brilliant piece of information you've unearthed there, Jeff
BTW, I was feeling a bit bored a moment ago, so I did a run on my martingale spreadsheet and graphed the progress of the starting bank, which started at £10,000 (see below).
The system makes a nice profit for a while, and up to about lay number 400 you feel like a god, thinking that profits are flowing effortlessly into your bank account. Then you hit 7 losing lays in a row, and it's goodnight Vienna!
Oh well, all good things must come to an end...Jeff
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Though I'd seen one recently and feeling nerdy
Martingale lay fav Uttoxeter 1/11/13 - fav won every race Target win = £50.00
Race LayPrice Liability/£ BaseStake Loss B/F LayBet P/L
1 3.45 -£2.45 £50.00 £0.00 £50.00 -£122.50
2 3.15 -£2.15 £50.00 £122.50 £172.50 -£370.88
3 5.20 -£4.20 £50.00 £370.88 £420.88 -£1,767.68
4 2.06 -£1.06 £50.00 £1,767.68 £1,817.68 -£1,926.74
5 4.80 -£3.80 £50.00 £1,926.74 £1,976.74 -£7,511.59
6 3.90 -£2.90 £50.00 £7,511.59 £7,561.59 -£21,928.63
7 3.65 -£2.65 £50.00 £21,928.63 £21,978.63 -£58,243.36
-£91,871.36
Based on exchange prices at 30 seconds before official off
To pinch a phrase from a mate "knock yourself out"
Martingale lay fav Uttoxeter 1/11/13 - fav won every race Target win = £50.00
Race LayPrice Liability/£ BaseStake Loss B/F LayBet P/L
1 3.45 -£2.45 £50.00 £0.00 £50.00 -£122.50
2 3.15 -£2.15 £50.00 £122.50 £172.50 -£370.88
3 5.20 -£4.20 £50.00 £370.88 £420.88 -£1,767.68
4 2.06 -£1.06 £50.00 £1,767.68 £1,817.68 -£1,926.74
5 4.80 -£3.80 £50.00 £1,926.74 £1,976.74 -£7,511.59
6 3.90 -£2.90 £50.00 £7,511.59 £7,561.59 -£21,928.63
7 3.65 -£2.65 £50.00 £21,928.63 £21,978.63 -£58,243.36
-£91,871.36
Based on exchange prices at 30 seconds before official off
To pinch a phrase from a mate "knock yourself out"
Anyone advocating getting involved in a Martingale system should be banned from here. These eBay get rich schemes are dangerous and deceptive at best. The people that use them are clueless guessers who have no idea what they are talking about.
Quoting figures like " A one in ten year event" is pure fantasy.
With horse racing you are dealing with so many variables. The main one being just who is going to be fav. This is a lucky dip that is sometimes literally decided by which horse may get the early lead.
There is absolutely nothing to stop every favourite winning every race on every card throughout the day. Like I have said before, you would not be able to get bets on off track, even if you had the funds.
Imagine you need to lay the fav of the next race with a stake of £5k (WTF does that?) and it's a 24 runner Hcap where the fav is 10.5.
That has gone before is no guarantee of what will happen in the future. ESPECIALLY with Horse Racing.
I say to El Capitan. If you are so smug about the success of this dross you are peddling. Carry on my friend. But stop trying to encourage others who might be gullible enough to try it.
#Clueless #Youwillbebrokesoon #Braindead
Quoting figures like " A one in ten year event" is pure fantasy.
With horse racing you are dealing with so many variables. The main one being just who is going to be fav. This is a lucky dip that is sometimes literally decided by which horse may get the early lead.
There is absolutely nothing to stop every favourite winning every race on every card throughout the day. Like I have said before, you would not be able to get bets on off track, even if you had the funds.
Imagine you need to lay the fav of the next race with a stake of £5k (WTF does that?) and it's a 24 runner Hcap where the fav is 10.5.
That has gone before is no guarantee of what will happen in the future. ESPECIALLY with Horse Racing.
I say to El Capitan. If you are so smug about the success of this dross you are peddling. Carry on my friend. But stop trying to encourage others who might be gullible enough to try it.
#Clueless #Youwillbebrokesoon #Braindead
I would say to anyone wanting to try this system try it with very low bets and lose what you can afford to lose, i was facinated with this idea years ago and it took me years to realise that it doesn't work.
i'v tried it with football backing even odds and doubling when i lose, it gets in your head that you can't surly lose 5 times in a row then bang it happens and you lose!
if you want to make money gambling or trading you need to have a skill looking for high odds or reading where the market is going.
good luck to anyone who is going to try, but it will end in tears when you lose a large amount of money.
i'v tried it with football backing even odds and doubling when i lose, it gets in your head that you can't surly lose 5 times in a row then bang it happens and you lose!
if you want to make money gambling or trading you need to have a skill looking for high odds or reading where the market is going.
good luck to anyone who is going to try, but it will end in tears when you lose a large amount of money.
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elcapitain
- Posts: 45
- Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 4:01 pm
Not peddling anything. Just saying tthis IS profitable as proved by Jeff.
Lets see if today is another winning day.
#TIGERBLOOD
Lets see if today is another winning day.
#TIGERBLOOD
WTF?!?elcapitain wrote:Not peddling anything. Just saying tthis IS profitable as proved by Jeff.
I don't know if you're trying to be provocative by misquoting me, but I reproduced a stats-backed study which concluded:
'One day you will get shafted by this system and quite possibly lose the lot.'
The study also contained the following stats (covering a 10 year period):
465 occasions £1,000+ bets were placed
40 occasions £10,000+ bets were placed
6 occasions £50,000+ bets were placed
2 occasions £100,000+ bets were placed
Beneath all the bravado, are you genuinely comfortable with the fact that, about four times a year on average, you will risk literally 200 times what you hope to win, with odds of success of maybe 80%?
I also pointed out that your system has no mathematical edge, and as Betfair take a cut of your winnings, then theoretically you cannot come out ahead long term.
Maybe deep down you think, 'These guys are coming out with theoretical mumbo jumbo, my system can't lose.' Well, if you think that, you're in for a rude awakening. The laws of logic don't collapse when they encounter your system...
Jeff
Perhaps I'm being a bit picky here, but what I don't like about this thread is BA and it's forum is all about TRADING - this is just a betting system, regardless of whether it's good or shit
The biggest reason why people fail in trading is because they cannot accept losses - they let bad trades go 'in play', or try to recover losses with a punt
Basically, Martingale goes against every grain of good trading advice.
The biggest reason why people fail in trading is because they cannot accept losses - they let bad trades go 'in play', or try to recover losses with a punt
Basically, Martingale goes against every grain of good trading advice.
True!
But as someone who once thought that martingale was the route to salvation, the altruist in me wants to spare someone else the same expensive mistake.
El Capitain is like el capitain of the Titanic - he's heading towards the iceberg at full speed, and nothing we say will dissuade him. But I couldn't let his foolish advice go unchallenged.
Jeff
But as someone who once thought that martingale was the route to salvation, the altruist in me wants to spare someone else the same expensive mistake.
El Capitain is like el capitain of the Titanic - he's heading towards the iceberg at full speed, and nothing we say will dissuade him. But I couldn't let his foolish advice go unchallenged.
Jeff
LinusP wrote:Why are you all trying to get him to stop? He is providing the mug liquidity that we all want!
...which proves nothing. I refer you to my spreadsheet. Sometimes you will be able to go over 2,000 lays without Lady Luck catching up with you. But, like our well looked after turkey who has a date with destiny in a few weeks' time, you aren't safe.
You haven't answered my question:
Beneath all the bravado, are you genuinely comfortable with the fact that, about four times a year on average, you will risk literally 200 times what you hope to win, with odds of success of maybe 80%?
Jeff
You haven't answered my question:
Beneath all the bravado, are you genuinely comfortable with the fact that, about four times a year on average, you will risk literally 200 times what you hope to win, with odds of success of maybe 80%?
Jeff
elcapitain wrote:No losing days for me thus far.