Confessions Of A Recovering Hothead Trader

[LeTiss]

I've seen a few pre-event 1.01 favourites go tits up in non-horse racing markets

[James1st]

Or it could be that it has no value to me as a trader.

How do you know that it does? Have you seen any evidence of its effectiveness?

Jeff

I understand the concept of the over-round. I'm just not sure what predictive value it has (if any).

The second sentence tells me you don't fully understand the over-round and its value to you as a trader.

In the interests of testing a literal translation of the "overround" viz the book value, today I tested plotting this value on a 5 second chart alongside the odds of the fav in every race today.

The overround value stuck mostly between 100 and 102 and I can report that there was absolutely no correlation between the overround and odds of the favourite in any of the races.

[Iron]

That's very interesting James.

Has anyone else done any statistical testing of the extent to which the over-round predicts price movements?

Jeff

There was absolutely no correlation between the overround and odds of the favourite in any of the races.

[steven1976]

Maybe the whole market is so perfect is because its all being controlled from the same person/company.

Bedtime!

[steven1976]

That was in regards to horse racing

[Euler]

That's very interesting James.

Has anyone else done any statistical testing of the extent to which the over-round predicts price movements?

Yes, thirteen and a half years ago.

[Iron]

Do you think the market may have changed since then in terms of how it responds to a tightening over-round?

Jeff

Yes, thirteen and a half years ago.

[Euler]

No

[Euler]

One thing I'd bear in mind when reading forums etc, is never to rule out anything. I've made that mistake in the past only to learn later exactly what was being said. So always go forth with an inquisitive and open mind.

[redtra]

One thing I'd bear in mind when reading forums etc, is never to rule out anything. I've made that mistake in the past only to learn later exactly what was being said. So always go forth with an inquisitive and open mind.

Inspirational...as always, and another for me to print out and stick on my monitor!

[LeTiss]

This thread has mentioned low price favourites being turned over - last night Uruguay were 1.04 to beat Jordan.....finished 0-0!!

[AmazingMisterX]

Upon reading this thread it is obvious to me that I need to take a better look at the book over round. Cheers!