Scottish Independence Vote
I disagree.
Only one of the many polls has shown the 'yes' camp ahead, and I think people will opt for the devil they know.
The alternative is to jeopardise a strong economy and hope that Alex Salmond, a man who probably wouldn't pass a GCSE in economics, has got his sums right. Us humans are conservative creatures who are more motivated by the fear of loss than the possibility of gain, so I think the Scots will stick with the status quo.
BTW, it's curious that the Yes stickers and posters I see out and about outnumber their No counterparts by about 9 to 1. I suspect that is because people are concerned that having a No poster in their window might result in a brick flying through it...
Jeff
Only one of the many polls has shown the 'yes' camp ahead, and I think people will opt for the devil they know.
The alternative is to jeopardise a strong economy and hope that Alex Salmond, a man who probably wouldn't pass a GCSE in economics, has got his sums right. Us humans are conservative creatures who are more motivated by the fear of loss than the possibility of gain, so I think the Scots will stick with the status quo.
BTW, it's curious that the Yes stickers and posters I see out and about outnumber their No counterparts by about 9 to 1. I suspect that is because people are concerned that having a No poster in their window might result in a brick flying through it...
Jeff
marko236 wrote:I think the yes vote will win 52% to 48%
There's no formguide to this, people are reacting to news and opinion polls.
If the polls are correct and it's neck & neck, then there's some value in laying 'NO' at 1.25
However, there's some serious money looking to back at 1.26, which suggests news might be about to break that will damage the 'Yes' hopes.
It appears some of the money in recent days has had knowledge of opinion polls before their official release
If the polls are correct and it's neck & neck, then there's some value in laying 'NO' at 1.25
However, there's some serious money looking to back at 1.26, which suggests news might be about to break that will damage the 'Yes' hopes.
It appears some of the money in recent days has had knowledge of opinion polls before their official release
I'm surprised that people are buying into the Yes vote. Because the Yes campaign seems to be purely based on pulling heartstrings while ignoring the realities of the situation and claiming that any negative news is some sort of machiavellian conspiracy driven by the English. Bloody politicians.
2 months ago i would have said a no vote would win, now it's looking more like yes, if Labour where in power it wouldn't have happened.
Maybe.
Remember that people don't always say what they think in surveys, and some people may say they will vote 'Yes' to appear socially acceptable.
The fact that the Yes posters and stickers you see out and about in Scotland significantly outnumber their No counterparts suggests that many No supporters aren't confident about expressing their views in public.
Also, this latest survey used a small sample (700 people, I believe), so there is a greater margin of error than with a larger sample.
Jeff
Remember that people don't always say what they think in surveys, and some people may say they will vote 'Yes' to appear socially acceptable.
The fact that the Yes posters and stickers you see out and about in Scotland significantly outnumber their No counterparts suggests that many No supporters aren't confident about expressing their views in public.
Also, this latest survey used a small sample (700 people, I believe), so there is a greater margin of error than with a larger sample.
Jeff
It's curious that Leighton Vaughan-Williams refers to the referendum as 'too close to call' in reply to this tweet:
https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/statu ... 00/photo/1
From what I can tell, the Sam Wang model he refers to involves looking at the median of polls to gauge the likelihood of a particular voting outcome, rather than fundamentals: http://www.vox.com/2014/9/6/6106047/who ... -wang-2014
Jeff
https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/statu ... 00/photo/1
From what I can tell, the Sam Wang model he refers to involves looking at the median of polls to gauge the likelihood of a particular voting outcome, rather than fundamentals: http://www.vox.com/2014/9/6/6106047/who ... -wang-2014
Jeff
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Dublin_Flyer
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Is there any more live debates to come before the vote?
Off topic but at the last Irish presidential election, Gallagher had a 15% lead 3 or 4 days before the vote. In the final live debate a dubious tweet was read out on live tv making some allegations against him, finished runner up 11% behind Higgins on first count, 68%/32% behind on final count.
Just wondering because if there is a final debate, and someone makes a monumental cock up, the tv ratings of viewer quantity will be irrelevant, people will be told what happened by the papers/websites and vote accordingly to their regular news source!
We ended up with an entertaining little president anyway, after the final debate his ratings soared when the following clip went viral in Ireland from when he was a senator.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZO2jIR8hc4
4 mins long but worth it for the finale
Off topic but at the last Irish presidential election, Gallagher had a 15% lead 3 or 4 days before the vote. In the final live debate a dubious tweet was read out on live tv making some allegations against him, finished runner up 11% behind Higgins on first count, 68%/32% behind on final count.
Just wondering because if there is a final debate, and someone makes a monumental cock up, the tv ratings of viewer quantity will be irrelevant, people will be told what happened by the papers/websites and vote accordingly to their regular news source!
We ended up with an entertaining little president anyway, after the final debate his ratings soared when the following clip went viral in Ireland from when he was a senator.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZO2jIR8hc4
4 mins long but worth it for the finale