EU Membership Referendum (Brexit)

[soccersaint]

My crystal ball says in March not May Auntie May gets her last minute deal, we exit and brexit and she exits very very swiftly...followed in by everyone’s favourite hound dog Boris....

My ball shows a Europe in melt down and a Putin vs Trump stand off later in the year.....that might mean we get that war after all

[PDC]

With this market as such lows, it must surely be a candidate for a wobble?

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/p ... .153320849

Can't see it myself, good luck though (I think you will need it)

I wasn't watching the markets last night, as I said before I couldn't see much happening that wasn't already expected which turned out to be the case, but did the market wobble at all prior to the vote? I would have guessed not, if anything I would have, as I said, gone to no offer?

[Euler]

Nope, nothing at all, just one-way traffic. I switched to looking at the scale of the vote instead. In hindsight, there wasn't a big enough time scale to insert some uncertainty. Speaking of which: -

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/p ... .153668551

[PDC]

Thanks for the reply. Tonight's vote also looks a done deal, so I think you will have a similar fate if looking for a bounce on that market. Again the current price of 1.04 looks value to me.

The weekend should be an interesting period to see where next on Monday but I won't be spending time looking at the markets.

Anyone who didn't see it should watch the Andrew Neil interview with Matt Hankcock from last night just after the vote, Neil at his best. Start watching from 47:30:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b ... l-15012019

[Euler]

It would be a massive shock if the government did lose a no-confidence vote.

[ruthlessimon]

It would be a massive shock if the government did lose a no-confidence vote.

I know it's really really really bad to say this; but surely this is another grab at some free money!

I just cannot understand the logic of laying 1.04, I just can't!!

[Euler]

Numbers as expected

[wearthefoxhat]

Numbers as expected

These were the odds just before the vote... 40.00 available.

VotesMPsupport.PNG

[Naffman]

Think you're looking at the opposition votes...

[wearthefoxhat]

Think you're looking at the opposition votes...

I think the market said "support for the MP", I could have been wrong.

[LeTiss]

Surprising twist in the brexit debate tonight - Grieve and Cooper both defeated

The market for Brexit by 29th March has seen a drift on "NO" - 1.21 this morning, now 1.37

[superfrank]

Surprising twist in the brexit debate tonight - Grieve and Cooper both defeated

The market for Brexit by 29th March has seen a drift on "NO" - 1.21 this morning, now 1.37

Yay.

The 29th is a Friday so that weekend will be a massive celebration should we leave on that date with a proper Brexit or No Deal. If it happens I'll be going to a Wetherspoons - it would be rude to go anywhere else.

[LeTiss]

Interesting market - next country to hold a referendum before 2022 - I don't like trading markets so far away, but it's noticeable how interest is starting to appear for Ireland. A number of political commentators have suggested that if the EU causes friction in Ireland over the border, it could end with Ireland also wanting to leave the EU

[Black Ice]

I got 6.6 for a YES to 29/3...it then came in to 4.2..so decided to hedge when Hunt came out & said we might need a few more weeks. Mind you...was very tempted to hang on..as last time i hedged out on an 'ante-post' was on that girl who won the French Open a couple of years ago & that cost me about £300! Still..my head ruled heart this time...will be interesting to see what happens.!!

[ShaunWhite]

Interesting market - next country to hold a referendum before 2022 - I don't like trading markets so far away, but it's noticeable how interest is starting to appear for Ireland. A number of political commentators have suggested that if the EU causes friction in Ireland over the border, it could end with Ireland also wanting to leave the EU

I heard a piece about this on R4 a few weeks ago.
NI polls suggest that if there's a hard border a majority would vote to leave the UK, but if there isn't a hard border majority would vote to stay.