Trading What I see !?

[jamesg46]

What happens when too many bots are triggered?

No idea but I would imagine that people have bots that track volume so what i meant by my comment is that very little activity is probably going to attract very little reaction.

Ah, ok..volume bots producing volatility..which you don't want at that point..get you now

An anology is, its like a burglar in the night, i was on my tip toes but all it takes is a sneeze or a creaking floor board and the 6ft 4 brick shit house is gonna be out of bed beating me black and blue.

[ruthlessimon]

What happens when too many bots are triggered?

The fundamental players step in & perform a culling

[smallplayer]

What happens when too many bots are triggered?

The fundamental players step in & perform a culling

Think I follow you there..but the question is, what happens if the fundamental players are outgunned by just too many bots at that time..do they hold their huge red waiting on back up from more fundamental players later or do they cut their losses?

[ruthlessimon]

what happens if the fundamental players are outgunned by just too many bots

The reverse occurs & the players offering the money get culled (because I assume that in the longterm, 00:00/bsp is the correct price)

[smallplayer]

what happens if the fundamental players are outgunned by just too many bots

The reverse occurs & the players offering the money get culled (because I assume that in the longterm, 00:00/bsp is the correct price)

Fundamental thinking in pre off racing could be dangerous if you are stubborn person.

[Anbell]

these are on the a/w in the evening on a dull friday nigh, you cant expect much really can you? They will be quite jumpy (even dundalk which as better grade racing this evening, than newcastle). Anything 15 minutes out on these cards is going to be no use at all. not worth looking until £100000 or so as been matched.

Yeah that one!!
I got angry and backed fav at 2.48 £100...
Out at 2.18
At least I ended the day in profit!
But doesn't count really....

Why would you get angry?

[alexmr2]

Definitely finding the longer a position hangs around the more likely it's going to be a loser...!
Which I think plays into the psychology of traders staying in on hope!
If it ain't happening get out!
I might set myself a time limit

I can relate to this feeling quite often, but if you think about it logically it doesn't make any sense. Why it would be any harder to go further into the green than the red if you are free to open your position as a back or lay? I think that the issue may be that you need a favourable entry which leaves the red behind the right side of the short-term range.

As new traders it's very difficult to identify which markets to trade and which ones to avoid. Even with 2 years experience some days I fall into this trap and end up trying to trade almost every race.

Also to the getting angry and staking £100 you need to try and curb that habbit ASAP. Religiously stick to 1 or 2 stakes which are the right size for your bank at all times. I know it's much easier said than done but that can only lead to blowing up, and over time all those drawdowns add up to a very nasty lifetime P&L like mine

[Maturin]

Hi Goat,

Another post from me - with some more possible insights into my own experiences that may hopefully help a little.

I wrote last time that I regarded myself now as a 'break-even trader', after a period of trading semi seriously for about 2 years. This is still on small stakes (£10), so there are no sports cars in the immediate future!, but what I can say is that I'm a far better trader than I was when I started. In other words, keep going and keep plugging away, and things will hopefully improve and start to make a bit more sense. This is why it's sensible to use small stakes - maybe not £2, as I don't think this affects you enough emotionally so to speak, but you could use £10 stakes like I am doing. As others had said, being angry and staking £100 is just crazy and something you need to avoid. You will also be making mistakes, so of course using smaller stakes limits the damage your account will take.

I said I am a lot better at trading now, but when I started I was making lots of classic beginner mistakes:

Watching like a rabbit in the headlights as a trade moved against me, and against me, ending up in a huge (disproportionately so) loss - CHECK
Clicking around almost at random - CHECK
Getting scared and panicking and dumping my position when the market moves a little against me - CHECK
Overstaking - CHECK
Getting too emotional and chasing losses - CHECK
Loading up a market and jumping in straight away without having a clue what was going on - CHECK
Being impatient and not letting the trade play out - CHECK

And probably many more besides. Now, I don't really commit any of these (what Mark Douglas calls) 'Trading Errors' (I would recommend watching his lectures on Youtube, or listening to audiobooks etc as they really helped me a lot). Well, apart from the last one, which still occurs regularly! Now of course, I'm using £10 stakes here, so maybe if I tried to scale up tomorrow I would fall prey to some of these errors again, but the point is that I can say I've improved a hell of a lot from where I started from (though still not profitable), so you can improve too, if you stick around I think. Mastering yourself is a huge part of this I think, perhaps the most important aspect of trading. One thing I can say is that I'm a lot calmer now when I trade. I would imagine that if you watched a top trader at work it would actually be quite....well boring really (no offence meant anyone!), but that is exactly what you are aiming for! No extreme emotions expressed either way, just following the plan and letting the edge play out over the long term.

You will also need to spend some time just watching more markets, and as you have alluded to, figuring out when the best time to trade is, when the money arrives, when it gets a bit crazy,. why certain moves happen etc. All of this takes a lot of time I'm afraid. Again, it's something that I am certainly better at now than I was 1-2 years ago, that's for sure.

You have said that you don't want to trade Saturdays anymore as you are making the most losses there, but are you making notes of which races you are losing at for example? I also found this helpful. At first I was losing a lot of Novice races, as they can be very volatile, but now I trade them more confidently. I don't trade ANY Irish racing now, as they seem far too volatile for a beginner like me, and I also don't trade races which are 5 mins apart on the card (I would normally scrap the meeting with the lower volumes) as it doesn't give you enough time to get into what is happening I don't think. This all requires discipline of course, which is something else which has to be mastered. Again, my trading discipline has improved massively since I started.

I hope you keep at it, but my advice would be to stick to small stakes like £10 still at this stage, until things become a little clearer, and you feel like you're getting better. You could use £10 level stakes (tick increments will of course vary with price) or adjust this figure depending on the price of a selection to ensure even tick increments (you've probably seen Peter's video on this).

Best of luck

Maturin

[Maturin]

This is my first ever post on the forum, even though I've been reading the forum for probably over 5 years (yes I'm a lurker

Welcome, that's a banger first post.

Your username sounds slightly familiar but no idea from where

Thanks Kai for the welcome - I've just submitted my 2nd ever post! I'm feeling in a grand mood given my team is currently sitting pretty at the top of the Premier League!

No clues on the username!

[jamesg46]

these are on the a/w in the evening on a dull friday nigh, you cant expect much really can you? They will be quite jumpy (even dundalk which as better grade racing this evening, than newcastle). Anything 15 minutes out on these cards is going to be no use at all. not worth looking until £100000 or so as been matched.

Yeah that one!!
I got angry and backed fav at 2.48 £100...
Out at 2.18
At least I ended the day in profit!
But doesn't count really....

https://youtu.be/qLCej5RkLv0

[speedyhamster]

These lower volume races are a real loss consumer, all it takes is some geser to come along and put 5k on and it moves the price 15 ticks into a loss like just happened for me...

i am sure i read somewhere that even you are at the front of the queue at a price point , is not always true

order priority
1 Paddy Power/ Belfair sports book
2 order queue

so if paddy power need to dump 5k they will on the exchange and before your money at the front of the queue is matched.

[wearthefoxhat]

Hi Goat,

Another post from me - with some more possible insights into my own experiences that may hopefully help a little.

I wrote last time that I regarded myself now as a 'break-even trader', after a period of trading semi seriously for about 2 years. This is still on small stakes (£10), so there are no sports cars in the immediate future!, but what I can say is that I'm a far better trader than I was when I started. In other words, keep going and keep plugging away, and things will hopefully improve and start to make a bit more sense. This is why it's sensible to use small stakes - maybe not £2, as I don't think this affects you enough emotionally so to speak, but you could use £10 stakes like I am doing. As others had said, being angry and staking £100 is just crazy and something you need to avoid. You will also be making mistakes, so of course using smaller stakes limits the damage your account will take.

I said I am a lot better at trading now, but when I started I was making lots of classic beginner mistakes:

Watching like a rabbit in the headlights as a trade moved against me, and against me, ending up in a huge (disproportionately so) loss - CHECK
Clicking around almost at random - CHECK
Getting scared and panicking and dumping my position when the market moves a little against me - CHECK
Overstaking - CHECK
Getting too emotional and chasing losses - CHECK
Loading up a market and jumping in straight away without having a clue what was going on - CHECK
Being impatient and not letting the trade play out - CHECK

And probably many more besides. Now, I don't really commit any of these (what Mark Douglas calls) 'Trading Errors' (I would recommend watching his lectures on Youtube, or listening to audiobooks etc as they really helped me a lot). Well, apart from the last one, which still occurs regularly! Now of course, I'm using £10 stakes here, so maybe if I tried to scale up tomorrow I would fall prey to some of these errors again, but the point is that I can say I've improved a hell of a lot from where I started from (though still not profitable), so you can improve too, if you stick around I think. Mastering yourself is a huge part of this I think, perhaps the most important aspect of trading. One thing I can say is that I'm a lot calmer now when I trade. I would imagine that if you watched a top trader at work it would actually be quite....well boring really (no offence meant anyone!), but that is exactly what you are aiming for! No extreme emotions expressed either way, just following the plan and letting the edge play out over the long term.

You will also need to spend some time just watching more markets, and as you have alluded to, figuring out when the best time to trade is, when the money arrives, when it gets a bit crazy,. why certain moves happen etc. All of this takes a lot of time I'm afraid. Again, it's something that I am certainly better at now than I was 1-2 years ago, that's for sure.

You have said that you don't want to trade Saturdays anymore as you are making the most losses there, but are you making notes of which races you are losing at for example? I also found this helpful. At first I was losing a lot of Novice races, as they can be very volatile, but now I trade them more confidently. I don't trade ANY Irish racing now, as they seem far too volatile for a beginner like me, and I also don't trade races which are 5 mins apart on the card (I would normally scrap the meeting with the lower volumes) as it doesn't give you enough time to get into what is happening I don't think. This all requires discipline of course, which is something else which has to be mastered. Again, my trading discipline has improved massively since I started.

I hope you keep at it, but my advice would be to stick to small stakes like £10 still at this stage, until things become a little clearer, and you feel like you're getting better. You could use £10 level stakes (tick increments will of course vary with price) or adjust this figure depending on the price of a selection to ensure even tick increments (you've probably seen Peter's video on this).

Best of luck

Maturin

Another good post.

[wearthefoxhat]

Yeah that one!!
I got angry and backed fav at 2.48 £100...
Out at 2.18
At least I ended the day in profit!
But doesn't count really....

https://youtu.be/qLCej5RkLv0

Will watch later. Find them quite useful.

[goat68]

Hi Goat,

Another post from me - with some more possible insights into my own experiences that may hopefully help a little.

I wrote last time that I regarded myself now as a 'break-even trader', after a period of trading semi seriously for about 2 years. This is still on small stakes (£10), so there are no sports cars in the immediate future!, but what I can say is that I'm a far better trader than I was when I started. In other words, keep going and keep plugging away, and things will hopefully improve and start to make a bit more sense. This is why it's sensible to use small stakes - maybe not £2, as I don't think this affects you enough emotionally so to speak, but you could use £10 stakes like I am doing. As others had said, being angry and staking £100 is just crazy and something you need to avoid. You will also be making mistakes, so of course using smaller stakes limits the damage your account will take.

I said I am a lot better at trading now, but when I started I was making lots of classic beginner mistakes:

Watching like a rabbit in the headlights as a trade moved against me, and against me, ending up in a huge (disproportionately so) loss - CHECK
Clicking around almost at random - CHECK
Getting scared and panicking and dumping my position when the market moves a little against me - CHECK
Overstaking - CHECK
Getting too emotional and chasing losses - CHECK
Loading up a market and jumping in straight away without having a clue what was going on - CHECK
Being impatient and not letting the trade play out - CHECK

And probably many more besides. Now, I don't really commit any of these (what Mark Douglas calls) 'Trading Errors' (I would recommend watching his lectures on Youtube, or listening to audiobooks etc as they really helped me a lot). Well, apart from the last one, which still occurs regularly! Now of course, I'm using £10 stakes here, so maybe if I tried to scale up tomorrow I would fall prey to some of these errors again, but the point is that I can say I've improved a hell of a lot from where I started from (though still not profitable), so you can improve too, if you stick around I think. Mastering yourself is a huge part of this I think, perhaps the most important aspect of trading. One thing I can say is that I'm a lot calmer now when I trade. I would imagine that if you watched a top trader at work it would actually be quite....well boring really (no offence meant anyone!), but that is exactly what you are aiming for! No extreme emotions expressed either way, just following the plan and letting the edge play out over the long term.

You will also need to spend some time just watching more markets, and as you have alluded to, figuring out when the best time to trade is, when the money arrives, when it gets a bit crazy,. why certain moves happen etc. All of this takes a lot of time I'm afraid. Again, it's something that I am certainly better at now than I was 1-2 years ago, that's for sure.

You have said that you don't want to trade Saturdays anymore as you are making the most losses there, but are you making notes of which races you are losing at for example? I also found this helpful. At first I was losing a lot of Novice races, as they can be very volatile, but now I trade them more confidently. I don't trade ANY Irish racing now, as they seem far too volatile for a beginner like me, and I also don't trade races which are 5 mins apart on the card (I would normally scrap the meeting with the lower volumes) as it doesn't give you enough time to get into what is happening I don't think. This all requires discipline of course, which is something else which has to be mastered. Again, my trading discipline has improved massively since I started.

I hope you keep at it, but my advice would be to stick to small stakes like £10 still at this stage, until things become a little clearer, and you feel like you're getting better. You could use £10 level stakes (tick increments will of course vary with price) or adjust this figure depending on the price of a selection to ensure even tick increments (you've probably seen Peter's video on this).

Best of luck

Maturin

Great post Maturin, thanks for the advice
By the way just to clarify, I've decided to avoid Saturday just for the moment, too much action for me to over trade on at the moment..

[Maturin]

Hi Goat,

Yes, I completely understand. It can be very difficult to sit there and do nothing when there are so many markets and they are coming thick and fast. Probably relates to FOMO. I went through a stage where I had to physically take my hand off the mouse, and put it my side, or even sit on my hand. If I didn't I would be unable to avoid clicking the mouse, the temptation was too great! All part of learning discipline, and as I said, that is one area that I have improved on greatly.

You could always observe a Saturday in practice mode, and that way, even if you click the mouse there are no serious consequences.

Good luck if you are trading today,

Maturin