goat68 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:39 am
Mmm, I've had the sudden realization there's something basic I don't understand, on Betfair exchange who are the other players?
So take a punter betting in Coral shop, he's backing at a price set by some Coral 'system' or a Coral trader, that trader has other punters to balance his book with, but obviously the Betfair exchange prices must be somewhere inline otherwise Coral could have an easy ARB?
Can someone explain how the market all links up, IE.how does Joe Bloggs in a Coral shop putting £5k on the fav affect my position on the exchange?
FWIW just my take.
Back in the day, before the computer, Ladbrokes/Corals/William Hill had odds compilers that had (and still do) have strong connections to stable information. ie: Work riders/jockeys/trainers would "liaise" with them, in return get better prices for their bet(s). (also non-triers)
A savvy punter could easily spot this when a "corner" horse's price was shorter/longer than expected and could bet accordingly. The late John McCririck used to bang on about the watching the "magic sign" - Ladbrokes, If they were short on certain trainers runners, take that a positive.
Nowadays, If you were to make a market on Betfair on an event, say, todays Ayr 12.30, the starting point is likely to be oddschecker. Also, reference to a reliable betting forecast. (Racing Post)
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The main difference of course is we are now privy to vasts amounts of information that can be correlated/compared. Anyone can create their own ratings/assessments of a race or selection, and that stands testament to the amount of rating services out there.
Your role is to choose how you harvest that info, and how to interpret the right/relevant data to produce a clearer picture. The better at predicting the outcome and spotting value, the profits will roll in.
How does the market link up?
After all the data has been harvested and computed it now comes down to which company on oddschecker, over time, has shown to more reliable.
The others will follow, and then the supply and demand -market economy takes over and the trading desks manage their positions with a view on any other information available to their own company.
Joe Bloggs £5k corals bet.
That will depend on some of the above. Have their sources any strong/weak info on this, what's the overall position? Is the customer a VIP?
£5k on its own will probably be asborbed, however if Dettori is riding at Ascot and has the first 2 winners, and has 5 more rides, the liability is more likely to £100k and rolling.
What I don't know is how/who they currently hedge their positions with. On-Course bookies are not trading, so it's only accounts with other bookmakers or the exchanges. If I were Corals/Ladbrokes/William Hill, I would use the exchanges. (maybe that could explain some bigger than normal swings just before the off)
Exchange traders.
Say you don't believe on taking a view on a race, and just react to the volume/price movements/market movers. In reality there are traders out there that have some sweet setups, automation/semi-automation, fast pictures, alerts, that will over time, get the best of it.
Why bother?
Who's to say you don't find the next market/sweet spot that you can profit on and gain an edge.
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