Trading What I see !?

[spreadbetting]

Charts are very good at showing what's happened , it's very easy to read them after the event not so easy whilst they're happening.

[goat68]

Charts are very good at showing what's happened , it's very easy to read them after the event not so easy whilst they're happening.

Yes, totally agree.
I know it's all about anticipation, but you anticipate based on something now or in the past... I'm not convinced chart patterns help. I know people say keep going goat, but I can keep going staring at charts more and more and getting no where if there really is no edge in them!

[smallplayer]

Glance at the charts to see what has happened, which may dictate what may happen later, but your main tool afaic is the ladders. In fact, you wouldn't need anything else if you could read them right. Remember, the book is almost 100%, so if one goes up, another must come down. Maybe two weak ones are enough to push a strong one out? Maybe the very strong fav will make all the rest slowly drift. What happens when the steamer hits the crossover at 6? Has backing dried up now and is backing activity starting to occur again on the fav. Are backers queuing big bets behind these backs for better odds. Are the layers seeing this and starting to pull their lays? It's all this stuff and lots more that you have to see, assess and decide what is most likely to happen. Of course it may all change in a second so you have to be prepared to cut it all in a second without hesitation.

[goat68]

The key I believe is as eluded to by Peter numerous times, and that is making a judgement of what other traders are doing, then apply psychology and rock, paper, sicors!

[smallplayer]

What is the one thing Peter does in every video? He resets the ladders !

[goat68]

Glance at the charts to see what has happened, which may dictate what may happen later, but your main tool afaic is the ladders. In fact, you wouldn't need anything else if you could read them right. Remember, the book is almost 100%, so if one goes up, another must come down. Maybe two weak ones are enough to push a strong one out? Maybe the very strong fav will make all the rest slowly drift. What happens when the steamer hits the crossover at 6? Has backing dried up now and is backing activity starting to occur again on the fav. Are backers queuing big bets behind these backs for better odds. Are the layers seeing this and starting to pull their lays? It's all this stuff and lots more that you have to see, assess and decide what is most likely to happen. Of course it may all change in a second so you have to be prepared to cut it all in a second without hesitation.

Thanks this is useful. I really need a break from months of staring at charts, and look for a new strategy more based on the ladder.

[Maturin]

Hi Goat,

What stakes have you been using, or are planning to use for your new £100 bank? I think that if you have just had to reload your bank, you're still trying to figure out the markets, possibly changing strategies or changing what you look at to make your decisions (ie charts or ladders), then I would advise scaling right back to minimal stakes. Not that these things are unusual, and again, they are all things that I did. But saying that you think it's going to cost you £50 (half your bank) each month just to learn seems a little masochistic - if you use £2 stakes then you shouldn't be losing £50 a month I don't think, and it means you can experience actively participating (the most import thing) for much longer without worrying how much it is costing you.

Also, were you using BF charts or advanced charting to help make decisions?

Regards

[speedyhamster]

Sorry for removing that link to another forum but there is a history there, so we don't want to backlink there.

Bookmakers rarely hedge positions. They have plenty of dumb money and margin to not have to hedge.

The market is just an amalgam of many different types of activity. You nor Betfair may never be able to accurately describe specifically what each order is doing or why and where it comes from.

would that include on course bookmakers?

[auto-matt]

Goat you are putting far too much emphasis on charts imo, I would certainly try to manage your expectations because from the outside looking in you sound quite a bit a away if that’s all you’ve been investing your time into the last 6 months is charts, I hope it does click for you and will be rooting for you because you’ve been a great read over the past few weeks

[goat68]

Goat you are putting far too much emphasis on charts imo, I would certainly try to manage your expectations because from the outside looking in you sound quite a bit a away if that’s all you’ve been investing your time into the last 6 months is charts, I hope it does click for you and will be rooting for you because you’ve been a great read over the past few weeks

Thanks, I know I am definitely quite away from it at the moment!
Glad it's useful for others anyway
Cheers

[Euler]

would that include on course bookmakers?

Bookmakers do hedge a little on Betfair, but they mainly hedge on Betdaq. There are no on-course bookmakers at this time.

[Anbell]

would that include on course bookmakers?

Bookmakers do hedge a little on Betfair, but they mainly hedge on Betdaq. There are no on-course bookmakers at this time.

That's interesting. Why is that so?

[Euler]

Betfair views their odds and market data as a commercial product and wanted to charge bookmakers an arm and a leg to access it. So if they spotted what they thought was a 'commercial' account they would impose different charges on it. So they all moved to Betdaq.

[Anbell]

Betfair views their odds and market data as a commercial product and wanted to charge bookmakers an arm and a leg to access it. So if they spotted what they thought was a 'commercial' account they would impose different charges on it. So they all moved to Betdaq.

Fascinating. Thanks.

Didn't Betdaq once own the company that provided the on-course bookie hardware/technology? (I'm going back 20 years here)

[Euler]

Wasn't aware of that? I'd have to check.