Football Data (CSV, JSON) - UPDATED 16/08/17

[Dallas]

In the interests of a bit of fun I thought I would do a simple program to quickly lookup what the prices of an outcome should be following a goal based on JonnyG's early goal theory and his way of pricing a market, below is a copy of the table which the program uses so that you can see most outcomes at once (just couldn't quiet fit them all on screen). Put simply when a goal is scored by the home team in the Premier League you just look at the minute it was scored then work your way along to see what the price of a home win, away win, O/U1.5 markets etc etc should be (according to JonnyG's theory) – this should save him tons of time copy and pasting when he’s doing his in Prem lge in-play analysis in the future .

For those who couldn't understand his posts the general gist was he believes the market often misprices the outcomes following a goal and that the correct way to price an outcome is to simply discount everything except for
"dividing the number of times an outcome has occurred by the number of goal scored on that minute".

So using the table below if the home team scores on the 3rd min the odds of the away team winning the match should be 18.67 because they have only won 3/56 times when a goal was scored on the 3rd min

PL.JPG

NB, im therefore not recommending anyone follow this as any sort of betting or trading strategy the purpose of this post was solely to highlight the way he thinks matches should be priced as I know it was very confusing for most ppl the way it was posted so i'll just leave it up to the readers if they think this is a viable and profitable way to trade/bet on football markets

Personally I would hope anyone that is using the goal timing data Welshboy06 has kindly scraped and shared will put it to much better use by finding themselves something far more relevant and useful which they can hopefully use to actually make a profit with

[Westerner]

Nice post Dallas.

Main problem I 've found when analysing goal times is sample size. If we breakdown into leagues like you've done with the Premier Leaguein we can see that the numbers are quite small for each 1 min bracket.

If we think about how each game has a different profile (e.g. strong home fav v weak away team) and start adding this to the mix the numbers decrease very quickly with each goal scored.

To get over this I decided to bracket goal times, which isn't ideal but it does bulk up the numbers to smooth over the bumps. Would be interested to hear if others have a better way once they start going over the data.

[spreadbetting]

Big thumbs up for the new CSV data welshboy, might be an idea to include the country and leaque in separate columns too as then the data could all be dumped in one file, or database

[Dallas]

Nice post Dallas.

Main problem I 've found when analysing goal times is sample size. If we breakdown into leagues like you've done with the Premier Leaguein we can see that the numbers are quite small for each 1 min bracket.

If we think about how each game has a different profile (e.g. strong home fav v weak away team) and start adding this to the mix the numbers decrease very quickly with each goal scored.

To get over this I decided to bracket goal times, which isn't ideal but it does bulk up the numbers to smooth over the bumps. Would be interested to hear if others have a better way once they start going over the data.

Thanks,

That imo that is another of the major flaws in JG's approach, he never factored in starting odds which as you have highlighted are a major part if the previous data of 10 games was from matches with a strong home fav and this current match has a weak home fav it renders it useless especially from a perspective of trying to price a market. Then break it down into odds and you end up trying to say 'well this has happened 2 out of 4 times in last 12 years so its 50% it will happen this match therefore odds should be evens!

I've had this type of data some time just never done much with it but when i do ill be looking a more longer term patterns and not at things like 'if a goal is scored on 8mins then the following will happen next but if its scored on the 9mins then something different will occur'!'

[spreadbetting]

I think there's always a tendency to backfit systems when you drill down data to the nth degree and start looking for patterns in what's effectively random data.

[deansaccount]

I was wondering, does anyone in here have a genuine edge in a premier league market that has been effective over a few seasons? I'm wondering if it's really possible as the premier league seems like it has very efficient markets.

[Westerner]

Nice post Dallas.

Main problem I 've found when analysing goal times is sample size. If we breakdown into leagues like you've done with the Premier Leaguein we can see that the numbers are quite small for each 1 min bracket.

If we think about how each game has a different profile (e.g. strong home fav v weak away team) and start adding this to the mix the numbers decrease very quickly with each goal scored.

To get over this I decided to bracket goal times, which isn't ideal but it does bulk up the numbers to smooth over the bumps. Would be interested to hear if others have a better way once they start going over the data.

Thanks,

That imo that is another of the major flaws in JG's approach, he never factored in starting odds which as you have highlighted are a major part if the previous data of 10 games was from matches with a strong home fav and this current match has a weak home fav it renders it useless especially from a perspective of trying to price a market. Then break it down into odds and you end up trying to say 'well this has happened 2 out of 4 times in last 12 years so its 50% it will happen this match therefore odds should be evens!

I've had this type of data some time just never done much with it but when i do ill be looking a more longer term patterns and not at things like 'if a goal is scored on 8mins then the following will happen next'

Spot on IMO. The data is very useful but a broader view is needed. Can't take it just at face value.

[Atho55]

To offer my opinion on "does anyone in here have a genuine edge in a premier league market" I`m sure some people do but there are individual opportunities that occur that when grouped may return a positive outcome. For example, the odds on the correct score market for the Real Madrid v Barcelona game last night lent themselves to Dutching numerous scores. Of the 19 potential choices, £100 by liability bets placed on 11 likely outcomes would return a range of win positions of varying values v loss positions. In this instance the returns on the wins v potential loss looks to be a good market to trade. The odds need to be in a certain configuration to return decent sums but it does happen in the Premier league. I have not done any long term analysis but it may be that only selecting this odds type to trade would be sufficient to give an edge.

[deansaccount]

To offer my opinion on "does anyone in here have a genuine edge in a premier league market" I`m sure some people do but there are individual opportunities that occur that when grouped may return a positive outcome. For example, the odds on the correct score market for the Real Madrid v Barcelona game last night lent themselves to Dutching numerous scores. Of the 19 potential choices, £100 by liability bets placed on 11 likely outcomes would return a range of win positions of varying values v loss positions. In this instance the returns on the wins v potential loss looks to be a good market to trade. The odds need to be in a certain configuration to return decent sums but it does happen in the Premier league. I have not done any long term analysis but it may be that only selecting this odds type to trade would be sufficient to give an edge.

Thanks for the reply, do you quite often dutch the correct score? It's not something I have looked to much in to. I'd have been tempted to cover 2-2 also

[Atho55]

I`ve not done any this season yet. Prefer to wait till about 5-6 games in when the teams start to settle down. The dutching bit has been inserted into the Dallas Lay @ HT if 0-0 and was only put on in practice mode to illustrate the potential. I would likely not have bet on that game as the previous H2H look too ropey. If anyone has any correct score odds from just before the start they wish to share I could pick out the high return games and test the results over a longer period.

[deansaccount]

I`ve not done any this season yet. Prefer to wait till about 5-6 games in when the teams start to settle down. The dutching bit has been inserted into the Dallas Lay @ HT if 0-0 and was only put on in practice mode to illustrate the potential. I would likely not have bet on that game as the previous H2H look too ropey. If anyone has any correct score odds from just before the start they wish to share I could pick out the high return games and test the results over a longer period.

Yup that would be great if anyone has the data.

[jonnyg]

you have all missed one obvious point which I am delighted to share with you > Dallas asked me to provide in play analysis on this forum so when I did and he discovered that the analysis was very strong = deleted >

why do people actually look at football data and analytics ?

if you are considering football data and analytics from a historical perspective = starting prices > i can advise that the edge is zero on the basis that

expectation of a goal is dependent on the current score added to the time of the opening goal in an individual league and as a result the individual strength of a team can be weakened / strengthened as time decays in a game <

if you model focus is starting prices then I can assure you that your edge will be zero >

we get to the summary > I have very strong analytical skills and I can see that I have looked at the early goal at a much higher level then the entities advising that my research is flawed >

[jonnyg]

Sheffield Wedn…
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D. Jones 70′
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to be helpful I can show you the game above in terms of the expectation of the outcome of the game given the events that occurred .

1. an early away goal

2. 0-1 with 20 minutes elapsed

3. 0-1 HT game state added to the early away goal in the Championship

4. a home fightback = survival analysis > 1-1 > in the 2nd half

what you should be looking to do is to work out how the time of the opening goal in an individual league added to the game state ( current score ) effects accuracy added to the expectation of the team that open the scoring = holding their one goal advantage >

to take football data and analytics in terms of the opening goal and the fightback metric < I have been approached by a consortium to advise on a application that will give a minute by minute analysis of early goal games in terms of expectation of total goal production and expectation of the team that score > holding their advantage < this will be a great tool if it gets off the ground >

I am happy to offer my time for free to anyone that wants to discuss the early goal in terms of any developments >

I am also happy to offer in play analysis on this forum >

[Dallas]

you have all missed one obvious point which I am delighted to share with you > Dallas asked me to provide in play analysis on this forum so when I did and he discovered that the analysis was very strong = deleted >

I have never asked you to do any in-play analysis, i may of once said feel free to share some betting opportunities if you see value somewhere similar to how megarian does on his cricket threads and others do throughout this forum on numerous other threads.

Instead what you posted was not opportunities or even analysis but just another form of copy and pasting material from your blog which had no value and couldn't be understood by hardly anyone. If it was remotely strong or of any use I along with others who read it would of been acting on it and singing your praises asking for more.

what you should be looking to do is to work out how the time of the opening goal in an individual league added to the game state ( current score ) effects accuracy added to the expectation of the team that open the scoring = holding their one goal advantage >

Like the spreadsheet added a few pages back? a worksheet like that can be knocked up for every league in every country or every team in a matter of minutes and that would save any need to copy and paste anything ever again, you will have all what you consider important factors right their at a glance

[spreadbetting]

From an outsider's view it all seems cherry picking a match that's already finished to try and prove some vague point with plenty of waffle and smilies thrown in for good measure. I'm sure people can find your blog if they're that interested.

Jumping on board these threads and filling them with data isn't helping either. Maybe just stick to one thread with all the data posting.