Aintree 2017
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davedragon
- Posts: 78
- Joined: Wed Feb 15, 2017 5:59 pm
Any pointers for the AUS and US racing tommorow?
Only foreign racing I have really done was the Breeder's Cup
Only foreign racing I have really done was the Breeder's Cup
Is there some big US racing? But the aus racing tends to trade quite similarly especially the bigger meetings, don't know how some people get away with huge trading turnover on Sydney meetings due to the turnover charge as I was threatened with a ban but some people seem to still do it.
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Dublin_Flyer
- Posts: 847
- Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:39 am
Had my best race of the year today. For big field races I try find a profile of a winner based on previous history with Horseracebase. Backfitting to an extent, but within reasonable allowance I think. Trying to find a logic for the circumstance rather than a circumstance for the logic, and finding the more likely than less likely winner by exclusion.
Example for the National being that every winner since 1997 has run in the previous 16-60 days bracket. My logic says you want a runner that has recovered since his last race, but isn't lacking race fitness itself in that it has had an outing within 2 months. 8 exclusions on this category tomorrow.
All winners since 1997 have had at least a top 5 finish in one of their last 3 runs. 19/20 of these were a top 3 finish in their last 3 runs. My logical take is this shows a recent sign of ability to be close enough at the business end of their races lately. 8 exclusions on this tomorrow, 2 from the previous category and 6 new ones.
All winners since 1997 have won at lowest a Class 2 race. 91 runners having won Class 3-7 have run, only 4 have placed. Out of their depth is my conclusion. 3 exclusions on this, 1 from previous and 2 new ones.
All winners since 1997 have run more than 2 times in the present season. 185 have tried and failed with only 15 even making the place money. 0 runs is too fresh, 1 run is to blow the cobwebs off, 2 runs is to get race fit in my view. Only 5 try this year, 1 new elimination plus 4 from previous categories.
And so it continues on and on and on until I can find nothing worthwhile eliminating, and have a shortlist that I'm happy with!
My eliminations:
Days Since Run: Drop Out Joe, Regal Encore, One For Arthur, Ballynagour, Highland Lodge, Bishops Road, Stellar Notion, Rogue Angel.
Top 5 in last 3 runs: More of That, Wounded Warrior, The Young Master, Ballynagour, O'Faolains Boy, Vicente, Measureofmydreams, Rogue Angel.
Class 2 at least: Stellar Notion, Goodtoknow, La Vaticane
3 or more runs this season: Vieux Lion Rouge, Highland Lodge, O'Faolains Boy, Drop Out Joe, Measureofmydreams.
Eliminated:
2) More of That
7) Wounded Warrior
11) Drop Out Joe
13) The Young Master
15) Regal Encore
16) Vieux Lion Rouge
22) One For Arthur
23) Ballynagour
24) O'Faolains Boy
25) Highland Lodge
26) Bishops Road
29) Vicente
31) Measureofmydreams
33) Stellar Notion
34) Rogue Angel
38) Goodtoknow
39) La Vaticane
17/40 eliminations isn't too bad, at present prices you could dutch the field against the exclusions for a 61 profit on 100 staked. (104.2% book at time of writing)
For what it's worth, here's my long shortlist for the big one.
9 fit my trends, plus 2 others that fit other trends so may be back to lays for me. Another B2L is Gas Line Boy, he's a front runner with Robbie Dunne riding. He only knows how to ride from the front, or very close to it, he'll be worth a B2L at big odds.
Just A Par is one for the golf fans, sure didn't Butler's Cabin win the Irish National in 2007 during the Masters weekend, the Green Jacket ceremony being at....Butlers Cabin!
Example for the National being that every winner since 1997 has run in the previous 16-60 days bracket. My logic says you want a runner that has recovered since his last race, but isn't lacking race fitness itself in that it has had an outing within 2 months. 8 exclusions on this category tomorrow.
All winners since 1997 have had at least a top 5 finish in one of their last 3 runs. 19/20 of these were a top 3 finish in their last 3 runs. My logical take is this shows a recent sign of ability to be close enough at the business end of their races lately. 8 exclusions on this tomorrow, 2 from the previous category and 6 new ones.
All winners since 1997 have won at lowest a Class 2 race. 91 runners having won Class 3-7 have run, only 4 have placed. Out of their depth is my conclusion. 3 exclusions on this, 1 from previous and 2 new ones.
All winners since 1997 have run more than 2 times in the present season. 185 have tried and failed with only 15 even making the place money. 0 runs is too fresh, 1 run is to blow the cobwebs off, 2 runs is to get race fit in my view. Only 5 try this year, 1 new elimination plus 4 from previous categories.
And so it continues on and on and on until I can find nothing worthwhile eliminating, and have a shortlist that I'm happy with!
My eliminations:
Days Since Run: Drop Out Joe, Regal Encore, One For Arthur, Ballynagour, Highland Lodge, Bishops Road, Stellar Notion, Rogue Angel.
Top 5 in last 3 runs: More of That, Wounded Warrior, The Young Master, Ballynagour, O'Faolains Boy, Vicente, Measureofmydreams, Rogue Angel.
Class 2 at least: Stellar Notion, Goodtoknow, La Vaticane
3 or more runs this season: Vieux Lion Rouge, Highland Lodge, O'Faolains Boy, Drop Out Joe, Measureofmydreams.
Eliminated:
2) More of That
7) Wounded Warrior
11) Drop Out Joe
13) The Young Master
15) Regal Encore
16) Vieux Lion Rouge
22) One For Arthur
23) Ballynagour
24) O'Faolains Boy
25) Highland Lodge
26) Bishops Road
29) Vicente
31) Measureofmydreams
33) Stellar Notion
34) Rogue Angel
38) Goodtoknow
39) La Vaticane
17/40 eliminations isn't too bad, at present prices you could dutch the field against the exclusions for a 61 profit on 100 staked. (104.2% book at time of writing)
For what it's worth, here's my long shortlist for the big one.
9 fit my trends, plus 2 others that fit other trends so may be back to lays for me. Another B2L is Gas Line Boy, he's a front runner with Robbie Dunne riding. He only knows how to ride from the front, or very close to it, he'll be worth a B2L at big odds.
Just A Par is one for the golf fans, sure didn't Butler's Cabin win the Irish National in 2007 during the Masters weekend, the Green Jacket ceremony being at....Butlers Cabin!
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dragontrades
- Posts: 1248
- Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2016 11:22 pm
I haven't got a bank big enough to trade the National at the same time as the other racing. Feels like I am missing out
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convoysur-2
- Posts: 1110
- Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:00 am
PLACE MARKETdragontrades wrote: ↑Sat Apr 08, 2017 1:14 pmI haven't got a bank big enough to trade the National at the same time as the other racing. Feels like I am missing out
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dragontrades
- Posts: 1248
- Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2016 11:22 pm