Please can you help me? I am close to depression

[wearthefoxhat]

The 'hot chick' methodology has won the argument for me.

In that case; Angelique Kerber is quoted at 12/1 with Bet365....

A.Kerber.PNG

[Derek27]

You might do better trading on men's tennis.

I know I trade better in Australia when Priscilla Schmidt isn't presenting.

[Derek27]

Anyway statics suck sometime.

Let's take a look at the match of Wozniaki v Monica Puigi

Wozniaki had win against her 4 times to 1

So statistically she had to win yesterday... statistic was in my favour.... I saw how it ended.

It's not statistics that the problem, it's your interpretation of them - it's what you use them for that counts.

Statistics tell you what happened in the past, not in the future, and can only be used as a tool in consideration with many other factors.

[Lucacrebbe]

Anyway statics suck sometime.

Let's take a look at the match of Wozniaki v Monica Puigi

Wozniaki had win against her 4 times to 1

So statistically she had to win yesterday... statistic was in my favour.... I saw how it ended.

It's not statistics that the problem, it's your interpretation of them - it's what you use them for that counts.

Statistics tell you what happened in the past, not in the future, and can only be used as a tool in consideration with many other factors.

I know men tennis is different and more stable.

For trading it's better women tennis, cause the swings can let you earn good money (or lose it)

[Dallas]

Anyway statics suck sometime.

Let's take a look at the match of Wozniaki v Monica Puigi

Wozniaki had win against her 4 times to 1

So statistically she had to win yesterday... statistic was in my favour.... I saw how it ended.

From some of your posts I've read on this topic, it sounds like your gambling more than trading at times and focusing on what you expect the end result to be.
If your trading it should be the opportunity you're looking for rather than result. There are key times within a match when these will present themselves and that's what you should be looking to exploit rather than who the eventual winner is

[ShaunWhite]

Wozniaki had win against her 4 times to 1
So statistically she had to win yesterday.

It's not statistics that the problem, it's your interpretation of them - it's what you use them for that counts.

Luca this is good advice, don't just read it - understand it. Same with the advice Dallas gave you......That's if you still want advice.

[Dallas]

I've just found this 'blog' with some images I intended posting last year but never got it fully written up and finished (ironically when I've just looked it was from the Miami Open final last year between Wozniacki and Konta).

The long and short where both players were around 2.0 when the match started,

Miami Open Odds.JPG

When the match started Konta immediately broke Wozniacki serve in the opening game which caused her odds to tumble to 1.5 and Wozniacki to drift out to around 3.0

From a straight betting value perspective, you could now lay Konta at 1.5 and your liability would be just half what it would have been had you layed her just a few minutes ago and all she’s done is won the opening game of the match!

From a trading perspective the early break is now a perfect opportunity, if you lay Konta now at 1.5 at worst she can only shorten 50 more ticks and to do that she would need to win the whole match.

Just a break back would see a return back to evens and a 50 tick profit, even losing the first set as long as wozniaki could apply some pressure in the 2nd and get a break of her own you wouldn't be losing

Below is what happened

Konta - Copy.JPG

PS, the extracts above where from the draft of the blog and just to outline the situation to give an example of what I was referring to in my previous post

[Lucacrebbe]

I am simulating a trade

Simona Halep v Radwanska.

I would have made a profit of 160 $ scalping on a stake of 1000$

[Lucacrebbe]

150 $ profit leavearge on a stake of 1000$

Not so much, but still a 15%...

[Lucacrebbe]

the odds obv have changed when I have made the screenshot after I placed the bet

[Kafkaesque]

Has anyone had the thought that you're being trolled here? Besides me I mean The guy declares himself a little trader god, or whatever it was, in his first thread on here.....and it turns out, he apparently is a god with no access to betfair.com or BA and thus has little to no experience. Capped off by now declaring a 15% profit, when the profit is all on a odds 3.00(ish) dog. I know, there's someone every once in a while popping in here, who knows everything when in fact they know next to nothing. But seriously! Either it's a troll or a trainwreck waiting.

[Lucacrebbe]

you can see if I am trolling

Made almost 800$ in total.

I am not trolling, I just want to test if I have the capalibities

[Lucacrebbe]

you can see if I am trolling

Made almost 800$ in total.

I am not trolling, I just want to test if I have the capalibities

[Lucacrebbe]

you can see if I am trolling

Made almost 800$ in total.

I am not trolling, I just want to test if I have the capalibities

[ShaunWhite]

I've just found this 'blog' with some images I intended posting last year.

Thanks Dallas, very interesting.