Australian Open 2020

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Euler
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I laid Nadal when he was serving to win the set. So it was just about perfect. Minimal downside and hoping for a Thiem comeback. Fairly open on the second set, waiting for an opportunity and seeing how Nadal reacts.
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Euler
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Theim gifts Nadal a break.
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sniffer66
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Took all my liability out of Nadal when he hit 1.4 again. Thiem breaks back
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rik
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Nadal definitely not happy, no idea what the price should be though nadal probably will up his game, he was terrible last couple games, missing easy forehands now
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rik
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marion bartoli is talking such nonsense, maybe should have eurosport audio
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Nero Tulip
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Incredible amount of disbelief in Thiem in the market..
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rik
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Nero Tulip wrote: ↑
Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:48 am
 Incredible amount of disbelief in Thiem in the market..
price is about in line what it should be given pre match odds isnt it?
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Nero Tulip
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rik wrote: ↑
Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:53 am
Nero Tulip wrote: ↑
Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:48 am
 Incredible amount of disbelief in Thiem in the market..
price is about in line what it should be given pre match odds isnt it?
Not on my model, though you wouldn't have it the other round. Nadal's stamina and ability during important moments needs some serious discounting. Still, it's big Thiem in general, market has not adjusted for what has occurred, it has priced in Nadal outperforming the start price from here.
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Nero Tulip
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They're pricing in Best of 7... (the old ones are the best.. :mrgreen: )
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Euler
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1.40 is a big price for 2-0 up in the best of five
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Euler
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I have a tendency to lean on the comeback though. At 0-2 he needs to make some inroads. If he gets broken again then I may jump in again.
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Dallas
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I missed the first set, watched the 2nd and now looking for some sort of entry
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Euler
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Dominant service game from Thiem
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Nero Tulip
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'foot off the gas' could arguably make this price at best 'ok'.. but it's a substantial change in performance level being implied.. say Nadal priced at a very rough 1.27ish SP from here. Where as stats have him currently as the wrong favourite! over two lengthy sets that a decent amount of data to infer from..
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Dallas
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Sensing this break is coming
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