Compounding Betfair Balance Questions

[HampshireIan]

Balance £67.39
Newcastle 18.15pm
Lay Hatheem 18 @ £3.85

[HampshireIan]

Balance at the end if today £71.05

[HampshireIan]

Ok, here we go again then.....

Balance £71.05
Newcastle 12.45pm
Lay Al Erayg - odds of 16.45 @ £4.58

[Kai]

Ok, here we go again then.....

Balance £71.05
Newcastle 12.45pm
Lay Al Erayg - odds of 16.45 @ £4.58

A bit unlucky there on the very first race of the day.

Have you thought about backing instead, or managing your bet during the race, according to how it's going?

That may actually be a useful exercise, compared to what you're doing there, since you would find yourself in all sorts of positions and you could perhaps spot a couple of good opportunities along the way, maybe even build up an edge from the ground up.

[Dallas]

Ok, here we go again then.....

Balance £71.05
Newcastle 12.45pm
Lay Al Erayg - odds of 16.45 @ £4.58

A bit unlucky there on the very first race of the day.

Have you thought about backing instead, or managing your bet during the race, according to how it's going?

That may actually be a useful exercise, compared to what you're doing there, since you would find yourself in all sorts of positions and you could perhaps spot a couple of good opportunities along the way, maybe even build up an edge from the ground up.

You could capture your P/L from the moment of bet placement and analyze it later using this
viewtopic.php?f=54&t=16632

[Kai]

You could also try placing an exit for your bet on a reasonable price (or a greedy one?), you may be surprised how often you'd get it matched and neatly closed. Just a few things to potentially think about, instead of trying to do the same thing yet again next time.

[jimibt]

alas, as has been mentioned before, the frickin market *knows* about itself and will always swoop to grab back those returns if there's no value or reasoned logic being excercised.

one way fwd would be to look at higher value dutch back bets (i.e. where they definitely HAVE value) using a similar approach - i.e. back all inferred value runners where the odds were between say 16 and 25 etc. you'll be surprised at how often those higher odds runners come in (as witnessed today perhaps).

anyway, twas a good little experiment for little damage i guess.