It's all your fault..... bloody botsDallas wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 2:28 pmand in another 10 years someone will be asking the same questionShaunWhite wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 2:08 pmBots aren't new, all the things being spoken about here have been happening for at least 10yrs.
ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 2:53 pmIt's all your fault..... bloody botsDallas wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 2:28 pmand in another 10 years someone will be asking the same questionShaunWhite wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 2:08 pmBots aren't new, all the things being spoken about here have been happening for at least 10yrs.
With 2 fences to go, "looked like winning" and backing wouldn't be everyone's view, and when it faltered it was just quicker fingers hoovering the money up. There's no ghost in the machine just 000s of good traders.
So how would those 'quicker fingers' know when the horse ran out. This 'game' is about anticipation before an event occurs especially 'in-play'. It's too late after an 'event' has happened. eg it's no good trying to back the 'winner' after it has wonShaunWhite wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 3:02 pmWith 2 fences to go, "looked like winning" and backing wouldn't be everyone's view, and when it faltered it was just quicker fingers hoovering the money up. There's no ghost in the machine just 000s of good traders.
Nobody in their right mind would back a horse because it "looked like winning". You have to balance its chances of winning with the price.
This game has absolutely nothing to do with anticipating what happens. It's all about judging the probability of something happening. If a horse is trading a 4, the question is not whether will it win but does it have a more than 25% chance of winning.Cardano wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 3:12 pmThis 'game' is about anticipation before an event occurs especially 'in-play'.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 3:02 pmWith 2 fences to go, "looked like winning" and backing wouldn't be everyone's view, and when it faltered it was just quicker fingers hoovering the money up. There's no ghost in the machine just 000s of good traders.
Impossibity judging the 'probability' of a horse 'runnin-out'. I'd be surprised if the jockey would know thatDerek27 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 3:34 pmThis game has absolutely nothing to do with anticipating what happens. It's all about judging the probability of something happening. If a horse is trading a 4, the question is not whether will it win but does it have a more than 25% chance of winning.Cardano wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 3:12 pmThis 'game' is about anticipation before an event occurs especially 'in-play'.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 3:02 pm
With 2 fences to go, "looked like winning" and backing wouldn't be everyone's view, and when it faltered it was just quicker fingers hoovering the money up. There's no ghost in the machine just 000s of good traders.
You're doing it again. "judging the probability" of something happening has nothing to do with "knowing". Nor is it a question of judging the probability of the horse running out, it's the probability of winning, or not.Cardano wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 3:39 pmImpossibity judging the 'probability' of a horse 'runnin-out'. I'd be surprised if the jockey would know that
Derek I don't need a lecture from you on 'probability' which has got nothing to do with my original question.Derek27 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 4:10 pmYou're doing it again. "judging the probability" of something happening has nothing to do with "knowing". Nor is it a question of judging the probability of the horse running out, it's the probability of winning, or not.
The chances of a horse running out, failing the weigh-in/dope test, etc. with two to jump are insignificant to its chances of jumping the last two obstacles and not getting caught. So you're just looking at it capsizing or getting caught. If it's well clear you may think it's got a 1.04 chance and it's trading at 1.02, so it would be a bad bet.
The odd of a horse making it past an obstacle is well known, even specific obstacles at specific courses. The jocks know those better than most because when they don't make it past it usually hurts.
Fontwell is covered by TPD, so anyone without a TPD sub is going to be disadvantaged trading this course and a few seconds behind manual traders actions - and even further behind bots triggering off TPD dataShaunWhite wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 4:29 pmThe odd of a horse making it past an obstacle is well known, even specific obstacles at specific courses. The jocks know those better than most because when they don't make it past it usually hurts.
Even acting after the event is fine so long as you're the first one. I'm guessing you were looking at the market with delayed pictures? Was it a race covered by TPD? You just have to stay in your lane if you don't want to get run over, being involved at a stage in the market where you know can't respond fast enough is a choice.
Like Derek you are still not answering the question.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 4:29 pmThe odd of a horse making it past an obstacle is well known, even specific obstacles at specific courses. The jocks know those better than most because when they don't make it past it usually hurts.
Even acting after the event is fine so long as you're the first one. I'm guessing you were looking at the market with delayed pictures? Was it a race covered by TPD? You just have to stay in your lane if you don't want to get run over, being involved at a stage in the market where you know can't respond fast enough is a choice.
If you reply to anything I say I will reply to what you said, not the original question. I've just looked at the OP and it's not even your thread!Cardano wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 4:21 pmDerek I don't need a lecture from you on 'probability' which has got nothing to do with my original question.Derek27 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 4:10 pmYou're doing it again. "judging the probability" of something happening has nothing to do with "knowing". Nor is it a question of judging the probability of the horse running out, it's the probability of winning, or not.
The chances of a horse running out, failing the weigh-in/dope test, etc. with two to jump are insignificant to its chances of jumping the last two obstacles and not getting caught. So you're just looking at it capsizing or getting caught. If it's well clear you may think it's got a 1.04 chance and it's trading at 1.02, so it would be a bad bet.
So can you refer your replies to the original question or FFS 'SHUT UP'
This isn't an exam, it's a discussion, and you're question has nothing to do with the original question, is Betfair dead?Cardano wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 4:37 pmLike Derek you are still not answering the question.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 4:29 pmThe odd of a horse making it past an obstacle is well known, even specific obstacles at specific courses. The jocks know those better than most because when they don't make it past it usually hurts.
Even acting after the event is fine so long as you're the first one. I'm guessing you were looking at the market with delayed pictures? Was it a race covered by TPD? You just have to stay in your lane if you don't want to get run over, being involved at a stage in the market where you know can't respond fast enough is a choice.
Remember when you were doing 'exams'
Carefully read the 'Question' before answering
Did BF 'hoover-up' when 'West Orchard' ran-out
