2011

[Euler]

The whole middle eastern thing had put a spanner in the works at the moment.

I don't think many would have put this on their list for 2011. I'm sceptical about how this will directly after the western economies other than the obvious issues relating to Oil.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12533620

[Euler]

Also I think it may prove a double edge sword for the west if the 'wrong' leaders get into power after all these uprisings.

[Iron]

Quite.

When people celebrated the fall of Mubarak, I thought their jubilation was premature. IMHO, it's not a foregone conclusion that a moderate, fairly elected government will replace the military regime.

Jeff

Also I think it may prove a double edge sword for the west if the 'wrong' leaders get into power after all these uprisings.

[CaerMyrddin]

IMHO it's difficult to get worst than Kadafi?

I guess in a certain way this was a toll to come. Many leaders where getting the rewards from capitalism but not sharing at all. You know where to find people buying 10 Rolls Royce at once...

Let's just hope democracie steps in and not extremism in it's numerous ways... Egypt will play a major role as one of the most important islamic countries, I also hope Turkey can pull the strings so that things work out.

[Iron]

I'm not so sure.

As we saw in Iraq and the Balkans, the collapse of a dictatorship can lead to bloodshed as groups vie for power. And in the current political and economic climate, I'd be surprised if NATO or the UN went in to restore the peace.

Also, whilst Gaddafi hasn't posed a threat to the international community for years, he may be replaced by an extremist who's not so benign...

So whilst I'm no fan of Gaddafi, at least he provided stability.

Jeff

IMHO it's difficult to get worst than Kadafi?

[hgodden]

You can bet that America or one of the other super powers like China or Russia will have a big hand in making sure all these new regimes will be what they want them to be, throughout history these places have meddled massively in these kind of coups for their own ends, and certainly not always to the benefit of the local people. I wouldnt be surprised if this hadn't all been planned and put into motion by one of the superpowers.... encourage protestors, maybe even plant a few agents, in one or two weaker regimes where they're less likely to open fire. The rest of the middle east suddenly gets confidence that they can do the same, and when the military side with the protestors and throw the government out the superpowers will be very keen to replace them with people that THEY want. Oil reserves wont be around forever and controlling and maintaining that dwindling supply will be crucial during the next 30 years. It'll be interesting to see what happens if Libya falls and the Iranian and Syrian people get confidence from it, thank God they don't have nukes already!

[Iron]

I wouldnt be surprised if this hadn't all been planned and put into motion by one of the superpowers.... encourage protestors, maybe even plant a few agents, in one or two weaker regimes where they're less likely to open fire.

It's possible, but it would be an extremely risky thing to do IMHO. Firstly, because it risks destablising the fragile peace between Israel and the other Middle East countries. And secondly, because it could send the price of oil through the roof, which could shatter America's economic recovery.

The rest of the middle east suddenly gets confidence that they can do the same, and when the military side with the protestors and throw the government out the superpowers will be very keen to replace them with people that THEY want.

Let's hope there are no protests in Saudi - an oil analyst on tv the other day said that that would send oil prices soaring.

It'll be interesting to see what happens if Libya falls and the Iranian and Syrian people get confidence from it, thank God they don't have nukes already!

Iran is a democracy already, so hopefully the people won't feel the need to protest.

Jeff

[hgodden]

Iran? A democracy? haha The King has all the power, not the 'elected' president. Where they pour oil down your throat for bad mouthing the king or publicly stone people half to death for adultary

This article from February 1st this year

"As the world watches the uprisings in the Middle East, the fundamentalist regime in Tehran is hard at work to ensure its suppressive measures remain effective. There have been more than 90 executions in Iran in the last 45 days.
Last weekend, the Iranian regime hanged Zahra Bahrami, a Dutch citizen who was arrested for partaking in the anti-government protests of December 2009. Mrs. Bahrami, who was visiting family in Iran at the time, was arrested and taken to Evin prison where she was kept in solitary confinement for over ten months. She was charged with "acting against national security" and "propaganda against the regime." Additional charges came later which included smuggling drugs into the country from the Netherlands. Under unbearable psychological and physical torture, Zahra was forced to confess to false charges. The manufactured "drug charges" have been denied by her family and according to Zahra's daughter, her mother was told she would be released if she signs the government's confession. On January 2nd, 2011 the court handed down Zahra's execution sentence, which her family was not made aware of, and on January 29th, the order was carried out and Zahra was executed in Tehran.

The Netherlands immediately froze all official contacts it had with Iran in protest of her execution, which Dutch Foreign Minister Uri Rosenthall referred to as "a barbaric act by the Iranian regime." The European Union foreign policy chief is said to be taking measures against Iran. The US State Department also expressed its concern over the execution, stating, they are "troubled by the recent execution of Dutch-Iranian national Zahra Bahrami, who was denied access to Dutch consular officials."

Currently there are close to 20 women facing execution in Iran. Cold hearted policies and commercially-driven interests must end when it comes to dealing with the misogynous rulers in Tehran."

[Iron]

Iran? A democracy? haha The King has all the power, not the 'elected' president.

Are you sure? I thought the shah fled the country in 1979!

Where they pour oil down your throat for bad mouthing the king or publicly stone people half to death for adultary

You seem to be assuming that such laws aren't the will of the people. I once spoke to an Iranian about the law relating to adultery. He defended Iran's position by saying that a stable family unit was the bedrock of a healthy society, and that Iranians' attitude to family values were completely different to those in the West. I should add that I don't agree with him, but his view may well be widespread in Iran.

Jeff

[CaerMyrddin]

You seem to be assuming that such laws aren't the will of the people

That's just anti-democracie. Even if that's the people's will, individual freedom is a stronger value on any democracie.

I'm pretty sure we wouldn't want to do what the british people wants you to, now would you?

IMHO, they are crossing a line now, we weren't much different a few centuries ago.

[Iron]

I actually agree with you.

I was just making the point that backward, oppressive laws and democracy are not mutually exclusive.

Jeff

You seem to be assuming that such laws aren't the will of the people

That's just anti-democracie. Even if that's the people's will, individual freedom is a stronger value on any democracie.

I'm pretty sure we wouldn't want to do what the british people wants you to, now would you?

IMHO, they are crossing a line now, we weren't much different a few centuries ago.

[CaerMyrddin]

It's always very cordial to 'chat' with you.

Who would say that easy access to weapons and democracie aren't exclusive too?

[Iron]

It's always very cordial to 'chat' with you.

Likewise!

Who would say that easy access to weapons and democracie aren't exclusive too?

You never know when you might need to defend yourself against the King of England!

Jeff

[Euler]

Something else unexpected to throw into the mix for 2011, could have been much worse but a general fog at the moment as to how severe the damage is: -

Tsunami hits north-eastern Japan after massive quake

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12709598

[Euler]

FYI, Interesting reading.

https://mm.jpmorgan.com/stp/t/c.do?i=BF ... ahnk%0D%0A

http://mceer.buffalo.edu/publications/w ... reface.asp