The Open Golf Championship 2025

[TupleVision]

My stats say a 4 shot leader into the last day should be priced around 1.20

I have it at 1.40

[btfath]

It wont be the first or last time Scheffler ruins the Sunday market.

[Euler]

My stats say a 4 shot leader into the last day should be priced around 1.20

I have it at 1.40

I'm looking at all Open's there is data on and seeing what the third round lead was and how many went on to win.

[henbet22]

1.4 or 1.2. Buying money. Half stakes. Half stakes at 2.

[TupleVision]

1.4 or 1.2. Buying money. Half stakes. Half stakes at 2.

I won't be laying Scottie at 1.2

[henbet22]

I wouldn't lay him at any price. There are plenty of other safer lay the leaders surely not the best in the world in benign conditions. You need food poisoning overnight or something.

[henbet22]

Different gravy.

[henbet22]

So much in hand. So many gears.

[TupleVision]

I wouldn't lay him at any price. There are plenty of other safer lay the leaders surely not the best in the world in benign conditions. You need food poisoning overnight or something.

I took him on at 1.77 overnight and greened up early this afternoon, I certainly didn't fancy taking him on in play.

[henbet22]

He plots round in control better than Tiger in his prime. His irons are outstanding. He got lucky with the receptive greens after the rain but he front runs so well so probably didn't need the help.

[henbet22]

I wouldn't lay him at any price. There are plenty of other safer lay the leaders surely not the best in the world in benign conditions. You need food poisoning overnight or something.

I took him on at 1.77 overnight and greened up early this afternoon, I certainly didn't fancy taking him on in play.

Thing is if I had a laying mindset that is a great trade as the course is playing so easy. So he will drift before he tees off as the field closes while he is on the practice green.

[TupleVision]

Thing is if I had a laying mindset that is a great trade as the course is playing so easy. So he will drift before he tees off as the field closes while he is on the practice green.

Nailed it

He should drift to around fair odds before he's teed off.

Assuming you've correctly calculated he's too short to begin with

[henbet22]

If he falls apart somehow and limps in to a 2 man playoff he would still be prob 1.6 maybe less

[TupleVision]

Yep. I just can't see much value in taking him on at all now. Easier fish to fry, minnows at least.

[Crazyskier]

Scottie isn't Rory. Sadly, for my lay bets :- (

CS